For what it’s worth yesterday was not a good day for me. but I managed to stop the bleeding. I ended up betting 2 parlays and 4 sides, and cashed 3 of the sides. That left me -0.73 units for the day, +23.77 units for the month of August, and +115.36 units for the season. I’ll still take that anytime.
The Dodgers were my big loser. As I mentioned in yesterday’s post, this one concerned me. The Dodgers were obviously the much better team, but they’ve already wrapped up the NL West and lead the Braves in the race for home field in the NL playoffs by 9 games. I was concerned that the Dodgers might not be all that invested in yesterday’s game. After the game they would be traveling to ATL for a three game series against the Braves in what could be an NLCS preview. Did this game really matter at all to the Dodgers.? And they were facing Caleb Smith who’s was a really good pitcher. It just looked like a bad spot, but I bet it anyway and got burned.
My other loser was the Diamondbacks. This one surprised me because I don’t think Derek Rodriguez is very good. In fact, I think that he sucks. Yet, somehow and some way, he managed to shut out the Dbacks on 3 hits and a walk over 7 innings last night. That just might have been his best start of the season. Don’t hold you breath waiting for another.
Fortunately, the Twins beat up on hapless Pedro Payano, and we got 7 great innings from Yu Darvish (7 IP, 4 H. 0 R, 0 BB, 10 K), bfore the Cubs wretched pen gave up 7 runs in the final 2 innings. I also got another great outing form Sonny Gray (5 IP. 1 hit, 0 r, 10 K), which at least kept me cole to even for the day.
We’ve got a full slate tonight, so let’s get right to it.
MIL @ WASH
Starting Pitchers
MIL
|
Houaer – R
|
(2/9)
|
(5/9)
|
1.64
|
6.00
|
5.23
|
4.10
|
9.69
|
3.00
|
2.08
|
0.313
|
0.375
|
74.9%
|
0.32
|
41,3%
|
52.1%
|
WASH
|
Corbon – L
|
(18/24)
|
(5/24
|
1.15
|
3.41
|
3.35
|
3.82
|
10.48
|
2.74
|
1.04
|
0.225
|
0.295
|
74.9%
|
0.26
|
37.30
|
46.8%
|
Edge – WASH
Bullpens
Edge – MIL
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
MIL
|
4.77
|
17
|
-12.9
|
14
|
0.323
|
11
|
96
|
15
|
0.193
|
9
|
9.6%
|
3
|
24.4%
|
25
|
0.39
|
13
|
5.4
|
11
|
WASH
|
5.09
|
10
|
-4.5
|
13
|
0.326
|
9
|
97
|
13
|
0.181
|
18
|
9.1%
|
12
|
21.6%
|
10
|
0.42
|
8
|
4.7
|
12
|
Edge – WASH
Conclusion: Both of these teams are battling for playoff berths. The Nats still trail the Braves by 6 games in the NL East and lead the NL wild card race. The Brewers are just a game behind the Cubs and Cards in the NL Central and just a game out in the NL wild card race as well.
Offensively, the Nats are healthy a hitting. The Brwerers are a decent hiting team as well, but not as well as the Nets. As for the bullpens, the Brewers pens hasn’t been as effective or as consistent as it was a season ago, but it is still better than the really shky Nats pen. That brings us to the two starting pitchers, had there the Nats have a huge edge.
Adrian Houser has struggled this season with just 2 good starts and 5 poor ones in his 9 outings as a starter. The only positive is that 2 of his last 3 starts have been good. In those 9 starts Houser has given up 26 runs on 51 hits and 13 walks over 39 innings. That’s 12 more hits than innings pitced, and 64 base runners in less than 40 innings. That would explain why his WHIP and ERA are both sky high, and his ERA metrics aren’t very far behind. Houser’s K rate is goos, but he’s gives up a lot of hard contact and HRs (9) in those starts.
Patrick Corbin now has 18 good starts, including 9 of his last 10, in his 24 outings, with just 5 poor ones. Corbin did have a really bad three start stretch from late May through early June in which he lost command of his fastball and slider, but except for that stretch Corbin has pitched great. . When he commands those two pitches, Corbin can be damned near unhittable, but when he doesn’t, he can get rocked. In that poor 3 start stretch, Corbin got lit up for 20 runs (16 earned) on 22 hits and 7 walks over 12.2 innings. Fortunately, Corbin rediscovered that command and has pitcher really well since that stretch. Overall, Corbin has a very good WHIP and ERA, with ERA metrics that are totally consistent with his ERA. In addition to his elite K rate, Corbin is also limiting his hard contact, and HRs (17), and generating a good number of GBs. As long as he has his command, Corbin has a pretty big margin for error because his stuff is just so damned good.
Pick – WASHG 1st 5 RL (-115 for 2 units)
DET @ TB
Starting Pitchers
7:10
|
SP 2019
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
DET
|
Norris – L
|
(11/21)
|
(9/21)
|
1.40
|
4.98
|
4.68
|
4.60
|
7.88
|
2.41
|
1.61
|
0.283
|
0.324
|
72.0%
|
0.32
|
38.3%
|
42.5%
|
TB
|
Morton – R
|
(19/25)
|
(6/25)
|
1.09
|
2.90
|
2.79
|
3.54
|
11.11
|
2.60
|
0.72
|
0.215
|
0.299
|
76.7%
|
0.23
|
33.2%
|
48.6%
|
Edge – TB
Bullpens
Edge – TB big
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
DET
|
3.65
|
30
|
-104.9
|
28
|
0.290
|
29
|
78
|
29
|
0.151
|
28
|
7.1%
|
27
|
25.9%
|
28
|
0.27
|
27
|
-3.7
|
21
|
TB
|
4.73
|
19
|
26.0
|
7
|
0.323
|
11
|
103
|
8
|
0.179
|
21
|
8.7%
|
15
|
23.9%
|
21
|
0.37
|
15
|
6.3
|
8
|
Edge – TB
Conclusion: The Rays won’t catch the Yankees in the A: East, but they currently lead the A’s by a game and a half for the final AL wild card spot. By contrast, the Tigers are just a really bad baseball team. Going absolutely nowhere.
Offensively, the Rays are mediocre. They lack power and hit too many GBs, but compared to the Tigers, they’re the 1927 Yankees. The same goes for the two bullpens. The Rays have a good one and the Tigers have a bad one. That leaves the two starting pitchers, and here the Rays have a huge edge as well.
Daniel Norris has now made 21 starts for the Tigers, with 11 that were good, and 9 that were poor. That’s just a little better than a coin flip. In those 21 starts, Norris has given up 69 runs (66 earned) on 138 hits and 33 walks in 120.1 innings. That’s 171 base runners in just over 120 innings! That’s a lot. As a result Norris’ WHIP and ERA are both high. His ERA metrics are all a little lower than his ERA, but still very mediocre. On the plus side, Norris isn’t giving up an excessive amount of hard contact, and his high BABIP should come down a bit. Norris hasn’t been awful, but he hasn’t been good either.
Charlie Morton has been the Rays best and most consistent starter this season. Morton has started 25 games for the Rays, and 19 of those outings have been good, and just 6 were poor. Morton’s WHIP and ERA are both excellent. His ERA metrics, while higher than his stellar ERA, but are still very good. They are higher mostly because of his 43 walks in 149 innings. Morton’s K rate is still elite (184) and he hasn’t given up a lot of HRs (12) or hard contact.
The Rays should win this game handily, but I’m not laying more than -300, so I’ll use them in a couple of parlays
Pick #1: 2Team ML Parlay TB + COL (-106 for 2 units)
Pick #2: 2 Team ML Parlay TB + HTN (+110 for 2 units)
STL @ CIN
Starting Pitchers
7:10
|
SP 2019
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
STL
|
Wainwright – R
|
(13/22)
|
(8/22)
|
1.41
|
4.35
|
4.31
|
4.59
|
8.85
|
3.68
|
1.13
|
0.260
|
0.319
|
75.6%
|
0.38
|
41.9%
|
49.0%
|
CIN
|
Castillo - R
|
(20/24)
|
(4/24)
|
1.11
|
2.69
|
3.61
|
3.97
|
10.77
|
3.82
|
0.94
|
0.190
|
0.252
|
82.1%
|
0.35
|
36.1%
|
55.1%
|
Edge – CIN
Bullpens
Edge – STL
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
STL
|
4.46
|
24
|
-54.6
|
21
|
0.307
|
24
|
88
|
23
|
0.162
|
25
|
8.4%
|
17
|
22.8%
|
15
|
0.37
|
15
|
9.5
|
4
|
CIN
|
4.58
|
21
|
-58.9
|
22
|
0.317
|
19
|
91
|
19
|
0.182
|
17
|
7.7%
|
23
|
23.0%
|
18
|
0.34
|
21
|
-11.2
|
29
|
Edge – None
Conclusion: The Cards are still playing for something. They’re tied with the Cubs in the NL Central and just a game out in the NL wild card race. The Reds are 6.5 game back in the NL wild card race and barely in contention. Offensively these team are pretty even but considering how bad the Reds were early on, they’re actually hitting much better since the AS break. The Cards do have the stronger pen, That leaves the two starting pitchers, and that should favor the Reds again.
Adam Wainwright has started 22 games for the Cards this season with 13 good starts and 8 bad ones. That’s not all that great. Wainwright’s WHIP is high and his ERA is about league average, His ERA metrics are all consistent with his mediocre ERA. Wainwright is generating a decent amount of Ks and GBs, but 49 walks in 120 innings is way too many. At this stage of his career, Wainwright is obviously still capable of being effective, and should be given credit for making adjustments. He’s increased his curveball usage, as opposed to his sinker which has been in decline for a while now. A cutter/curve arsenal has a better chance of working for him. That said, Wainwright’s no longer the ace that he used to be. He still has that good curve, and when he’s able to spot it, he can be very effective. However, that’s no longer a given, and when he hangs one, you can kiss it goodbye. Wainwright is just a lot more inconsistent than he used to be.
Luis Castillo’s been tremendous with 20 good starts to just 4 poor ones in his 24 outings. His WHIP and ERA are superb, and his ERA metrics, while higher than his ERA are still very good. Castillo’s K rate is elite and he’s only given up 15 HRs. His only glaring defect is his 61 walks in 143,2 innings.
Pick – CIN 1st 5 RL (-115 for 2 units)
LAD @ ATL
Starting Pitchers
7:20
|
SP 2019
|
GOOS
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
LAD
|
Maeda 0 R
|
(13/23)
|
(7/23)
|
1.10
|
4.15
|
4.14
|
4.26
|
9.35
|
2.89
|
1.34
|
0.208
|
0.246
|
71.6%
|
0.30
|
30.3%
|
40.6%
|
ATL
|
Soroka – R
|
(16/21)
|
(3/21)
|
1.08
|
2.32
|
3.19
|
4.22
|
7.24
|
2.11
|
0.49
|
0.226
|
0.274
|
79.9%
|
0.29
|
35.0%
|
54.5%
|
Edge – ATL
Bullpens
Edge – LAD
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
LAD
|
5.53
|
5
|
81.2
|
3
|
0.339
|
5
|
111
|
4
|
0.211
|
4
|
9.8%
|
1
|
20.9%
|
5
|
0.47
|
3
|
6.9
|
6
|
Braves
|
5.41
|
6
|
55.6
|
5
|
0.335
|
6
|
104
|
6
|
0.197
|
7
|
9.3%
|
8
|
22.6%
|
13
|
0.41
|
9
|
5.9
|
10
|
Edge – LAD close
Conclusion: The Dodgers are so far ahead in the NL West (19.5 games) that that the NL West race has been over for a while now. The Braves have a comfortable,, but not insurmoumtable 6 game lead in the NL East. The Dodgers were on an absolute tear, at least until they faced Caleb Smith and the Marlins last night. . They had won 4 straight, and 9 of their last 10.
The Dodgers have the better offense, but it’s close. Both of these teams are loaded. The Dodgers have the better bullpen. I still don’t think much of the Dodgers pen, but it is still better than the mess that the Braves have. As for the two starting pitchers, the Braves have their best pitcher going, and I think that gives them the edge.
Kenta Maeda has started 23 games for the Dodgers and has delivered 13 good starts as compared to 7 poor outings. Maeda’s WHIP is good, and his ERA is a little lower than league average. His ERA metrics are all total consistent with his ERA. Maeda is striking out a batter per inning and not giving up a lot of hard contact, but his 39 walks in just over 122 innings us a little hight.
Mike Soroka has pitched mostly very well for the Braves this season with 16 good starts, including his last 3, in his 21 outings, and just 3 poor ones. Overall, Soroka has given up just 37 runs (33 earned) on 106 hits and 30 walks over 128 innings, with 103 Ks, a 54.5% GB rate, and a 35% hard contact rate. He also has given up just 7 HRs. It’s no wonder that his WHIP, ERA and ERA metrics are all very good. It is true that his ERA metrics are all higher than his miniscule ERA, but they are still mostly quite good. It is also true that his BABIP is still lower than his career average. Those both point to a little negative regression for Soroka. That said, even with some inevitable regression factored in, Soroka’s numbers are still really good. Yes there are some arrows pointing to regression. However, aren’t we nitpicking just a little? Soroka still has given up more than 3 earned runs just 3 times all season. Other than his 30 walks, which might be a tad high,, what’s not to like, even with some regression factored in. Soroka’s still been very good.
This is a tough call, but Soroka abiity to generate GBs and not give up the long ball should serve him well here against a Dodgers lineup that loves the longball.
Pick – ATL 1st 5 ML (-106 for 2 units)
NYM @ KC
Starting Pitchers
8:15
|
SP 2019
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
NYM
|
Syndergaard - R
|
14/23
|
(9/23)
|
1.21
|
3.89
|
3.50
|
4.16
|
8.82
|
2.43
|
0.91
|
0.246
|
0.305
|
69.9%
|
0.13
|
28.3%
|
49.2%
|
KC
|
Montgomery - R
|
(3/5)
|
(2/5)
|
1.37
|
4.63
|
3.78
|
3.59
|
9.26
|
1.16
|
1.54
|
0.309
|
0.379
|
68.2%
|
0.38
|
44.3%
|
46.4%
|
Edge – NYM
Bullpens
Edge – None
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
NYM
|
4.84
|
15
|
4.7
|
11
|
0.321
|
14
|
102
|
10
|
0.183
|
16
|
8.2%
|
19
|
22.6%
|
13
|
0.36
|
17
|
-10.9
|
28
|
KC
|
4.31
|
26
|
-72.5
|
25
|
0.303
|
26
|
85
|
26
|
0.158
|
27
|
7.6%
|
24
|
22.5%
|
12
|
0.24
|
30
|
-3.6
|
20
|
Edge – NYM
Conclusion: The Mets are in the thick of the NL wild card race just 2 games out. By contrast the Royals are just playing out the string.
The Mets have most of the edges in this one. The Mets don’t have a good offense, but it is still clearly better than the Royals anemic attack. As for the two bullpens, that is close. Neither is worth a damn. That leaves the two starting pitchers, and there I give the Mets a huge edge.
I’ve struggled to figure out Noah Sydergaard all season. Syndergaard now is up to 14 good starts, including his last 6 starts. However he also has 9 poor starts in his 23 outings. Sysndergaard should be better than that. The real positive is that 10 of Syndergaard’s 14 good outing have come came in his last 13 starts. His WHIP is good, and his ERA is OK and moving in the right direction. Syndergaard’s ERA metrics are consistent with his ERA. Syndergaard was due for some positive regression all season, and we’re really starting to see signs of that. His K rate is down, but he’s still fanning nearly a batter per inning, so that’s not the issue. His hard contact rate is still under 30% so it’s not that he’s getting hit hard either. It’s been more just a matter of command and some bad luck. Syndergaard is not locating as well as he has in the past, and that’s made him more hittable. His 40 walks in 148 innings is also more than we’re used to seeing from Syndergaard. On the luck side, the Mets haven’t given him a lot of runs, and this season, he’s seemed to give up runs at precisely the wrong time. He really should be better than this, and lately he has been. Over his last 5 starts, Syndergaard has gone at least 7 innings in each, and given up just 11 runs (9 earned) on 11 hits and 10 walks in 42.1 innings. Now that’s more like the Thor, that I expected.
Mike Montgomery wanted out of CHIC because he wanted to be a full time starter. Well he got his wish, the Cubs traded him to the Royals, and they made him a starter. Montgomery has made 5 starts with the Royals, with 3 good starts and 2 poor ones. In those 5 starts Montgomery has given up 14 runs (12 earned) on 29 hits and 3 walks over 23.1 innings. That’s not awful, but it’s not good either.
Pick – NYM 1st 5 RL (-125 for 2 units)
MIA @ COL
Starting Pitchers
8:40
|
SP 2019
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
MIA
|
Alcantara
|
(11/23)
|
)9/23)
|
1.44
|
4.44
|
4.87
|
5.66
|
6.57
|
4.31
|
1.06
|
0.251
|
0.284
|
71.1%
|
0.66
|
34.9%
|
42,8%
|
COL
|
Gray
|
(14/24)
|
(8/24)
|
1.38
|
4.07
|
4.16
|
4.36
|
9.08
|
3.37
|
1.21
|
0.259
|
0.319
|
74.8%
|
0.39
|
40.0%
|
49.9%
|
Edge – COL
Bullpens
Edge – MIA small
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
MIA
|
3.64
|
30
|
-129.2
|
29
|
0.284
|
30
|
77
|
30
|
0.126
|
30
|
6.3%
|
29
|
24.2%
|
23
|
0.26
|
28
|
-15.5
|
30
|
COL
|
5.28
|
7
|
-89.4
|
26
|
0.328
|
8
|
85
|
26
|
0.188
|
13
|
7.6%
|
24
|
23.8%
|
20
|
0.32
|
24
|
-2.3
|
16
|
Edge – COL
Conclusion: Neither of these teams is contending for the postseason, so this game is pretty meaningless.
Offensively, I give the Rockies the edge here. Yes, Coors inflates the Rockies offensive numbers, but this game is being played at Coors. The park should also inflate the Marlins numbers too. Still, the Rockies are a better hitting team than the Marlins. As for the bullpen, they both stink. The numbers say the Marlin stink a little less, but in Coors they could both let lit up. That brings us to the two starting pitchers, and here I give the Rockies a clear edge.
Sandy Alcantara has now started 23 games for the Marlins, with11 good starts, and 9 poor ones. That’s not a very good ratio. You could almost just flip a coin to predict how Alcantara will pitch on any given day. Alcantara has given up 74 runs (68 earned) on 130 hits and 65 walks over 135.2 innings. That’s 195 base runners in just under 136 innings. That’s way too many! It certainly explains Alcantara’s high WHIPand rising ERA, and his ERA metrics are at least half a run higher than his ERA. Alcantara’s K rate is poor (99 Ks) and his 65 walks are a big part of his problem. His 0.66 BB/K is simply too high. On the plus side, Alcantara isn’t giving up a lot of hard contact, and has given up just 16 HRs this season, but 10 have come in his last 8 starts, and that’s an unwelcome development. Alcantara is also generating a fair share of GBs, but between the hits, the walks and now the HRs, Alcantara is developing an even bigger problem. He is putting far too many men on base, and now he’s giving up HRs too. He’s got good stuff, but the walks and HRs have really killed him and will continue to do so as long as he keeps giving them up. That could be really problematic is his first start at Coor.s
Jon Gray has started 24 games for the Rockies, with 14 good starts and 8 poor ones. Gray’s WHIP is a little high but his ERA is lower than league average, and his ERA metrics are all consistent with his ERA. Gray is striking out over a batter per inning, but he is also giving up walks (56 in 142 IP) and HRs (19). However, unlike some other Rockies pitchers, he really hasn’t been any worse at Coors than on the road.
Coors is a hitter’s park and the Rockies are the better hitting team. The Rochies are also used to playing at Cooors, and John Gray has actually pitcher fairly well at Coors. The Rockies should win this game but making this Rockies team -2264, which was the line this morning when I bet it ridiculous, so I parlayed them with the Ray, and with the Astros.
Added 2 Team ML Parlay: COL + HTN (+124 for 2 units)
HTN @ OAK
Starting Pitchers
10:07
|
SP 2019
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
HTN
|
Verlander - R
|
(19/25)
|
(6/25)
|
0.85
|
2.82
|
3.59
|
3.12
|
12.01
|
1.88
|
1.60
|
0.176
|
0.218
|
87.9%
|
0.16
|
40.9%
|
34.1%
|
OAK
|
Roark – R
|
(14/23)
|
(6/23)
|
1.39
|
4.06
|
4.18
|
4.51
|
8.93
|
2.95
|
1.18
|
0.268
|
0.328
|
76.6%
|
0.33
|
36.3%
|
37.9%
|
Edge – HTN
Bullpens
Edge – HTN
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
HTN
|
5.53
|
4
|
129.9
|
1
|
0.350
|
1
|
123
|
1
|
0.212
|
3
|
9.8%
|
1
|
18.2%
|
1
|
0.57
|
1
|
-6.9
|
26
|
OAK
|
5.06
|
11
|
9.4
|
10
|
0.321
|
14
|
101
|
12
|
0.193
|
9
|
9.0%
|
13
|
20.9%
|
5
|
0.43
|
5
|
-2.5
|
17
|
Edge – HTN
Conclusion: The Astros have a big lead in the AL West, and the A’sare battling for a wild card spot. The A’s need this game more, but the Astos have most of the edges. The Astros have the better offense, the better bu;;pen and the better starting pitcher. So why does this game make me nervous? Well, the A’s are good enough to be dangerous. They always swing for the fences and Verlander is a fly ball pitcher who is HR prone. Roark isn’t nearly as good as Verlander, but h’e god enough to be dangerous, especially in this ballpark.
Pick - HTN