958 Reds -135 over Cardinals
I'll be on the Reds for this one with Luis Castillo getting the start. Castillo has been dominant at home with a 0.94 WHIP and 2.35 ERA and he’s faced the Cardinals earlier this season and has gone 12 innings only allowing 2 runs. He also has great numbers for his career against potential batters that’ll be in the lineup for the Cardinals (.215/.309/.760). The Reds are also 13-11 in Castillo’s starts while he’s 11-4. Adam Wainwright gets the start and he’s been terrible on the road with a 1.62 WHIP and 6.96 ERA. He’s faced the Reds earlier this year and has only lasted 9 innings giving up 9 runs for a 1.50 WHIP and 8.68 ERA. Wainwright also doesn’t have great career numbers against potential batters that’ll be in the lineup for the Reds (.322/.416/1.035). Tucker Barnhart, Freddy Galvis, Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez and Ryan Lavarnway have all faced Wainwright and all batters hit .265 or better off him and these 5 should be in the lineup. Another big factor working in the Reds favor is that the Cardinals are one of the worst hitting teams in baseball this season and on the road they rank 3rd to last (27th-.236) so I’m not expecting much from their lineup up against a dominant home pitcher who’s pitched well against them this season already and also being without one of their better players in Jose Martinez who has a batting average of .286 against the Reds this season. Reds are 9-3 in their last 12 home games while the Cardinals are 2-6 in their last 8 road games.