For what it’s worth with yesterday’s rainout of the Astros/White Sox game I ended up betting just 1 game and my pick got blown completely out of the water. The Rangers got blown out 19-4 by the suddenly resurgent Blue Jays. It was obviously a really bad pick, but I only risked a unit, so no major damage was done. I’m still +22.37 units for the month of August, and +113.96 units for the season. I’ll certainly take that anytime.
We’ve got a full slate today, but we’re expecting heavy rain here in the Notheast, so we’ll see about potential rainouts. Let’s get right to it.
With lines always inflated at this time of the season, I’m looking first to parlay, and they’re even getting expensive
2-Team ML Parlay #1: HTN (game 1) + NYY (-127 for 2 units)
2-Team ML Parlay #2: HTN (game 1) + LAD (+101 for 2 units)
2-Team ML Parlay #3: HTN (game 1) + STL (-110 for 2 units)
2-Team ML Parlay #4: HTN (game 1) + HTN (game #2) (-137 for 2 units)
Here are the first two write ups
HTN @ CHI WS (game #1)
Starting Pitchers
4:40
|
SP 2019
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
HTN
|
Greinke – R
|
(18/24)
|
(6/24)
|
0.97
|
3.08
|
3.29
|
4.00
|
8.11
|
1.36
|
0.95
|
0.221
|
0.264
|
76.0%
|
0.16
|
25.5%
|
42.7%
|
CHI WS
|
Cease – R
|
(1/6)
|
(4/6)
|
1.55
|
6.00
|
5.03
|
4.80
|
9.00
|
4.09
|
1.64
|
0.273
|
0.323
|
64.2%
|
0.45
|
30.3%
|
45.5%
|
Edge – HTN big
Bullpens
Edge – HTN big
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
HTN
|
5.53
|
4
|
101.7
|
1
|
0.345
|
2
|
120
|
1
|
0.206
|
3
|
0.52
|
1
|
9.7%
|
3
|
18.5%
|
2
|
-5.5
|
24
|
CHI WS
|
4.12
|
28
|
-54.1
|
22
|
0.301
|
27
|
88
|
22
|
0.148
|
29
|
0.25
|
30
|
6.4%
|
29
|
25.7%
|
27
|
7.2
|
4
|
Edge – HTN big
Conclusion: The Astros have pretty much wrapped up the AL West with a 10 game lead over the A’s. The White Sox also aren’t contending for anything. They just playing out the string are looking to next season.
The Astros have all the edges here. They have the much better offense, the much better bullpen and I think that today they also have the better starting pitcher/
Zack Greinke underwhelmed in his Astros debut, giving up 5 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks to the Rockies. Nonehteless, Greinke is having another excellent season. He has 18 good starts in his 24 outings to only 6 poor ones. One was his very first start of the season, when the Dodgers lit him up for 7 runs on 7 hits (4 HRs) and 2 walks over just 3.2 innings in LA. The Dodgers have given Greinke fits ever since he left LA as a free agent before the 2016 season. However, 4 of the poor starts have happened in his last 10 outings. He hasn’t given up more than 3 earned runs in any of the other 18 outings, and has worked at least 6 innings in almost all of them. The HR issue that he showed against the Dodgers in that first start has pretty much disappeared, as Greinke has given up just 11 in his last 18 starts. His WHIP, ERA and ERA metrics are all good. Greinke’s BABIP is still 29 points lower than his career average, so maybe we’re seeing some negative regression, but Greinke’s biggest strength is that he doesn’t create his own problems with walks (just 23 in 152 IP) and he’s done a good job of limiting the long ball and the hard contact. That’ll go a long way in today’s MLB. Greink’s still an excellent pitcher and he should flourish in HTN.
23 year old Dylan Cease will be making his 7th start for the White Sox today. In his 6 previous stats, Cease has given up 24 runs (22 earned) on 36 hits (6 HRs) and 15 walks over 33 innings, with 33 Ks. The K’s are impressive, but the hits and walks are not, and 51 base runners in 33 innings is just asking for trouble. Cease is also giving up a lot of hard contact. He got lit up by the Royals for 6 runs (4 earned) and 8 hits over 6 innings, five starts ago, which is a bad thing for any pitcher. He gave up 4 more runs and walked 4 two starts ago in just 5 innings, at TB. Next, the Twins got to him for 5 runs on 7 hits and 3 walks in 5 innings, and that was followed by a rough outing against the Mets who got 4 runs on 7 hits in 7 innings. Cease’s last start at the Tigers was better. He only gave up 2 runs over 5 innings, but he still gave up 7 hits and it was the punchless Tigers. Ranked as the #18 overall prospect by MLB Pipeline, Cease was part of the 5-player trade in July 2017 that sent Jose Quintana to the cross town Cubs. The prized right-hander has shown premium strikeout stuff at every rung of the minors, and in his brief stint in the majors, but also shaky command and control. Cease will need to improve his command to have success in the majors, and right now he just doesn’t look ready.
With yesterday;s rainout, the Astros have had a full day to think about that embarrassing loss to the Orioles on Sunday. My guess is that they’ll be out for blood today, and poor Dylan Cease will pay the Price.
Pick – HTN
BALT @ NYY
Starting Pitchers
7:05
|
SP 2019
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
BALT
|
Means - L
|
(11/18)
|
(4/18)
|
1.17
|
3.54
|
4.59
|
5.17
|
6.70
|
2.39
|
1.34
|
0.236
|
0.257
|
76.3%
|
0.34
|
30.5%
|
33.3%
|
NYY
|
German - R
|
(12/19)
|
(5/19)
|
1.14
|
4.12
|
4.69
|
4.00
|
9.50
|
2.10
|
1.93
|
0.232
|
0.262
|
77.6%
|
0.21
|
40.0%
|
40.3%
|
Edge – NYY close
Bullpens
Edge – NYY big
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BALT
|
4.39
|
25
|
-69.5
|
23
|
0.303
|
25
|
87
|
24
|
0.162
|
24
|
0.29
|
27
|
7.1%
|
26
|
24.2%
|
20
|
0.1
|
18
|
NYY
|
5.96
|
1
|
64.5
|
4
|
0.343
|
4
|
113
|
3
|
0.203
|
4
|
0.32
|
24
|
9.6%
|
5
|
23.0%
|
16
|
-2.1
|
19
|
Edge – NYY big
Conclusion: After pulling one of the biggest upsets in MLB history on Sunday, the Orioles reverted to bein the Orioles losing 8-5 in the afternoon game and 11-8 in the nightcap. With a potential sor some serious rain, I don’t know if this game gets played, but if it does the discrepancy between these two teams is too great not to bet on the Yankees. TheYankees are the much better team in every respect. The have the much better offense and the nuch better bullpen. As for the two starting pitchers, that’s closer.
In addition to 4 early appearances out of the Orioles pen, John Means has started 18 games with 11 good starts and just 4 poor ones. That pretty impressive considering that he;s pitching for the Orioles. His WHIP and ERA are both good, but Means’ ERA metrics are over a full run higher than his ERA. That points to negative regression. His K rate is pedestrian, but he gets a decent amount of GBs and doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact.
Domingo German has mostly pitched really well for the Yankees this season, at least until he hit the DL with a left hip flexor. I don’t know if his performance has surprised anyone else, but it sure as hell surprised me. German has started 19 games for the Yankees and 12 have been good, with just 5 poor ones. German’s WHIP is solid and his ERA is a little lower than league average. His ERA metrics are consistent with his ERA. German is striking out over a batter per inning, with 25 walks in 109 innings and given up 23 HRs. German has talent and he’s pitcher mostly very well, but his command is sometimes lacking.
The starting pitching is close, but the Yankees really are the much better team. Of course, that’s no guarantee, just ask the Astros. Still the Yanks should win this one going away, but I’m not willing to lay the almost -300 with the Yankees tonight, so I’ll try a RL parlay.
Pick – NYY
LAD @ MIA
Starting Pitchers
7:10
|
SP 2019
|
GOOS
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
LAD
|
May – R
|
(2/2)
|
(0/2)
|
1.32
|
3.18
|
2.87
|
4.11
|
7.94
|
0.79
|
0.79
|
0.304
|
0.371
|
73.5%
|
0.10
|
52.8%
|
37.1%
|
MIA
|
Yamamoto - R
|
(5/10)
|
(5/10)
|
1.04
|
4.17
|
4.19
|
4.64
|
9.17
|
3.83
|
1.00
|
0.173
|
0.208
|
62.7%
|
0.42
|
49.3%
|
35.3%
|
Edge – LAD
Bullpens
Edge – LAD
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
LAD
|
5.40
|
5
|
68.7
|
3
|
0.339
|
5
|
112
|
4
|
0.207
|
2
|
0.48
|
3
|
10.0%
|
1
|
20.8%
|
6
|
3.2
|
9
|
MIA
|
3.66
|
29
|
-139.1
|
30
|
0.282
|
30
|
75
|
29
|
0.124
|
30
|
0.26
|
28
|
6.3%
|
30
|
24.2%
|
20
|
-12.5
|
30
|
Edge – LAD big
Conclusion: The Dodgers are so far ahead in the NL West that that race has been over for a while now. Ny contrast, the Marlins are on the of the few NL teams not in contention for something.
The Dodger have all the edges here. They have the much better offense, and even have the better bullpen. I don’t think much of the Dodgers pen, but it is still clearly better that what the Marlins have. As for the two starting pitchers, I thib=nk that the Dodgers have the edge there as well.
We have a really small sample size for Dustin May. He’s started 2 games, and both starts were god. May has given up 5 runs (4 earned) on 14 hits and 1 walk over 11.1 innings. with 10 Ks. The 10/1 K/BB ratio is impressive, but the 14 hits are a little troublesome. However, the he’s basically pitched well, he’s facing a weak hitting MIA lineup, and the Marlins have not seen him before.
Rookie Jordan Yamamoto got off to a very fast start, but has gotten pummeled by the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Twins and Mets in his last 4 outing. Yamamoto now has had 5 good starts and 5 poor ones. He has now given up 28 runs (25 eared) on 33 hits and 23 walks in 54 innings, with 55 Ks. The K’s are impressive, but there are some really clear warning signs attached to Yamamoto. The 23 walks in 54 innings is one, and the nearly 50% hard contact rate is another. Additionally, Yamamoto’s .208 BABIP won’t last either. It’s just not sustainable. All of that tells me that Yamamoto was exceedingly lucky early on, and that luck has run out . After a really fast start, Yamamoto has now given up 19 runs on 18 hits and 6 walks in his last 4 starts (20 IP). He has also given up 6 HRs in those 4 outings, after giving up none in his first 6. It appears that negative regression has now caught up to Yamamoto, and that’s dangerous against this Dodger lineup.
Pick – LAD
ADDED Parlays
2-Team ML Parlay #5 NYY + LAD (+104)
2-Team ML Parlay #6 NYY + STL (-106 for 2 units))
2-Team ML Parlay #7 NYY + HTN (Game #2 (-133 for 2 units)
2-Team ML Parlay #8 LAD + STL (+119 for 2 units)
CIN @ WASH
Starting Pitchers
7:05
|
SP 2019
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
CIN
|
Wood - L
|
(1/3)
|
(1/3)
|
0.02
|
1.53
|
5.65
|
4.87
|
6.91
|
1.83
|
2.51
|
0.317
|
0.333
|
79.3%
|
0.27
|
49.0%
|
34.0%
|
WASH
|
Ross - R
|
(3/3)
|
(0/3)
|
1.26
|
1.62
|
3.94
|
5.47
|
7.56
|
4.86
|
0.54
|
0.203
|
0.250
|
91.8%
|
0.61
|
35.6%
|
42.2%
|
Edge – WASH
Bullpens
Edge – CIN
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
CIN
|
4.59
|
22
|
-70.6
|
24
|
0.312
|
21
|
88
|
22
|
0.176
|
19
|
0.33
|
23
|
7.7%
|
23
|
23.3%
|
18
|
-9.6
|
28
|
WASH
|
5.01
|
11
|
-10.2
|
14
|
0.327
|
9
|
98
|
13
|
0.180
|
16
|
0.42
|
7
|
9.1%
|
12
|
21.6%
|
9
|
2.4
|
12
|
Edge – WASH
Conclusion: The Nats still trail the Braves by 6 games in the NL East, but lead the incredibly close NL wild card race. The Reds are 6.5 back in the NL Central, and 5 out in the NL wild card race.
The Nats have the better offense, but the Reds have the better bullpen. That leaves the two starting pitchers and we have bery small sample ixzes for both..
Alex Wood has struggled in his in his 3 starts with the Reds, with 1 good outing and 1 poor one. Wood has given up 9 runs on 9 hits (4 HRs) and 3 walks over 14.1 innings with 11 Ks. What most stand out are the 4 HRs.
Joe Ross has also started 3 games for the Nats, but all 3 were good starts. In those 3 starts, Ross has given up just 3 runs on 12 hits and 9 walks in 16.2 innings, with 14 Ks. Ross has basically pitched well, but the 9 walks definitely are a concern.
I think that the Nats are the better team, but I just don’t have enough data to warrant anything more than 1 1 unit play, and only 1st 5 with that Nats pen.
Pick – WASH 1st 5 ML (-121 for 1 unit)
BOS @ CLEV
Starting Pitchers
7:10
|
SP 2019
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
BOS
|
Sale - L
|
(14/24)
|
(9/24)
|
1.09
|
4.41
|
3.35
|
3.02
|
13.18
|
2.24
|
1.41
|
0.220
|
0.312
|
67.3%
|
0.17
|
35.8%
|
42.8%
|
CLEV
|
Clevinger - R
|
(9/11)
|
(2/11)
|
1.01
|
3.02
|
2.68
|
3.11
|
12.78
|
2.87
|
0.86
|
0.195
|
0.294
|
77.7%
|
0.11
|
36.4%
|
44.6%
|
Edge – CLEV small
Bullpens
Edge – CLEV
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BOS
|
5.73
|
2
|
63.4
|
5
|
0.345
|
2
|
111
|
5
|
0.198
|
7
|
0.45
|
4
|
9.3%
|
6
|
20.8%
|
6
|
1.2
|
13
|
CLEV
|
4.66
|
20
|
-32.8
|
18
|
0.316
|
19
|
92
|
19
|
0.176
|
19
|
0.43
|
5
|
9.3%
|
6
|
21.7%
|
10
|
7.2
|
4
|
Edge – BOS
Conclusion: The Indians now lead the Twin in the AL central race, but only by half a game. The Red Sox look finished in both the AL East and wildcard races, and I think that they know it.
The numbers say that the Red Sox have the better offense, and op paper that might be true, but right now I’m really not sure of that. The Indians have made some big upgrades and are hitting as well as they have all season. The Red Sox offense looks good on paper, but has really been hit or miss. As for the bullpens, the numbers give the Indians there and I happen to agree. That brings us to the two starting pitchers, and that’s my problem with this game.
Chris Sale struggled early this season. That wasn’t all that surprising considering that he ended last season hurting, and barely pitched in spring training as the Red Sox treated him with kid gloves. Sale now has 14 good starts in his 24 outings. That compares to 9 poor ones, 3 of which came in his first 4 starts. The only problem is that his 2 outings before facing the Angels last time out, were horrible with 14 runs allowed on 14 hits in a combined 9 innings, with 11 Ks. Then he turns around and tosses an 8 inning 0 run, 2 hit masterpiece with 13 Ks. That’s sort of been Sale all season long. Sale’s WHIP is excellent, but his ERA in very high. His ERA metrics are all about all over a full run better than his ERA and we’ve certainly seen the positive regression. A strand rate that is still lower than his career rate points to the same positive regression.
Mike Clevinger has only made 11 starts, but 9 of them have been very good, including his last 7, while just 2 were poor. Of the two poor starts, one came when he tried to pitch through an injury, and the other was his first start after returning from that injury and the IL. Other than those 2 outings, Clevinger has given up just 9 runs on 35 hits and 14 walks over 56.1 innings in his other 9 starts with 80 Ks. He’s pitching like Sale.
I don’t want to step in front of this Indians team or Mike Clevinger right now, but I don’t want to bet against Chris Sale either, so I bet the 1st 5 total. If both of these guys happen to be on, I see very few runs.
Pick 1st 5 Under 4.5 (-120 for 2 units)
I am also adding two small plays with very little write up
TEZ 1st 5 ML (-138 for 1 unit)
It’s Lance Lynn v Thomas Pannone
Lynn has 18 good starts and just 6 poor ones. Pannone has just 1 good start and 6 poor ones in his 6 outings. I’m fading Pannone for 5 innings
CHI C 1st 5 ML (-133 for 1 unit)
It’s Jose Quinttna v Jason Vargas
OK, I’m biased when it comes to Jason Vargas. I don’t think he’s very good.. However this is just a 1 unit play because the Cubs on the road are vey different than the Cubs at Wrigley, but I’m still fading Vargas.
STL @ KC
Starting Pitchers
8:15
|
SP 2019
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
STL
|
Flaherty
|
(14/23)
|
(7/23)
|
1.`13
|
3.72
|
4.04
|
3.91
|
10.52
|
2.88
|
1.47
|
0.216
|
0.268
|
79.3%
|
0.27
|
40.8%
|
37.5%
|
KC
|
Sparkman
|
(5/14(
|
(9/14)
|
1.45
|
6.09
|
6.22
|
5.52
|
5.38
|
2.51
|
2.27
|
0.286
|
0.283
|
67.5%
|
0.48
|
40.7%
|
39.7%
|
Edge – STL big
Bullpens
Edge – STL – Big
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
STL
|
4.47
|
24
|
-44.2
|
20
|
0.309
|
23
|
90
|
21
|
0.165
|
23
|
0.38
|
13
|
8.6%
|
15
|
22.6%
|
11
|
7.8
|
3
|
KC
|
4.38
|
26
|
-71.0
|
26
|
0.304
|
24
|
86
|
26
|
0.152
|
27
|
0.34
|
19
|
7.7%
|
23
|
22.7%
|
13
|
9.7
|
14
|
Edge – STL
Conclusion: The Cards are in the thick of both the NL Central race, 2 games back, and the NL wild card race, holding the 2nd spot by a half a game. The Royals are in nothing except their usual state of ineptitude.
The Cards would appear to have all the edges in this one/ They are the better hitting team and have the better bullpen. That leaves the two starting pitchers.
I had really high expectations for Jack Flaherty this season, but he struggled a lot more than I expected early on. Fortunately, Flaherty has bounced back nice with 5 good starts in his last 6 outsing, and in the one non good start he didn’t give up any runs but only went 54.1 innings. That leaves Flaherty with 14 good starts and 7 poor ones in his 23 outings. In thise last 6 outings, Flaherty gas given up a total of 4 runs on 19 hits and 10 walks over 38.1 innings. Flaherty’s WHIPand ERA are both solid, and his ERA metrics are consistent with his ERA. Flaherty’s K rate is excellent. His 41 walks in just over 128 innings is a tad high as are his 21 HRs, but not alarmingly so.
Glen Sparkman has now started 14 games for the Royals with 5 good starts and 9 poor ones, including his last 4 and 5 of his last 6. That’s a lot more bad starts than good! Sparkman’s WHIP and ERA are both high. What’s troubling is that his ERA metrics are every bit as bad as his ERA, . Sparkman ‘s xWOBA is higher than his wOBA, his xBAA is also higher than his actual BAA and his xSLG is much higher than his actual SLG. That all points to even more negative regression. That is also confirmed by three other numbers, a .286 BAA, and a 283 BABIP. Opposing batters are hitting Sparkman, but so far he’s been lucky that those balls are being hit right at fielders. A BABIP that’s actually a little lower than his BAA highlights just how lucky Sparkman has been. When you have 173 base runners in just 93 innings, it’s just a matter of times before more of those batted ball fall in for hits or fly out of the park for HRs, and more of those base runners score. That highlights a second potential problem for Sparkman, the long ball. He’s already given up 21 HRs in his 14 starts, and 18 of them have come in his last 11 starts. Sparkman also can’t rely on Ks to get out of jams, he misses very few bats with just 56 Ks. I want no part of Glen Sparkman.
Pick – STL
HTN @ CHI WS (game #2)
Starting Pitchers
8:20
|
SP 2019
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
HTN
|
Cole - R
|
(20/25)
|
(4/25)
|
0.98
|
2.87
|
3.11
|
2.93
|
12.98
|
2.24
|
1.38
|
0.199
|
0.279
|
81.6%
|
0.17
|
35.2%
|
39.1%
|
CHI WS
|
Nova - R
|
(14/24)
|
(10/24)
|
1.41
|
4.80
|
5.16
|
5.10
|
5.58
|
2.40
|
1.56
|
0.291
|
0.309
|
72.5%
|
0.43
|
34.8%
|
48.1%
|
Edge – HTN big
Bullpens
Edge – HTN big
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
HTN
|
5.53
|
4
|
101.7
|
1
|
0.345
|
2
|
120
|
1
|
0.206
|
3
|
0.52
|
1
|
9.7%
|
3
|
18.5%
|
2
|
-5.5
|
24
|
CHI WS
|
4.12
|
28
|
-54.1
|
22
|
0.301
|
27
|
88
|
22
|
0.148
|
29
|
0.25
|
30
|
6.4%
|
29
|
25.7%
|
27
|
7.2
|
4
|
Edge – HTN big
Conclusion: The Astros have pretty much wrapped up the AL West with a 10 game lead over the A’s. The White Sox also aren’t contending for anything. They just playing out the string are looking to next season.
The Astros have all the edges here. They have the much better offense, the much better bullpen and I think that today they also have the better starting pitcher.
Gerrit Cole has now thrown 20 good starts in his 25 outings, and just 4 poor ones. Cole has had just 1 poor start since May 22. He has a stellar WHIP and a very good ERA, His ERA metrics are even lower than his stellar ERA. Cole also leads the majors with 216 Ks in his 150.2 innings, with only 39 walks, giving him a great BB/K as well. Cole is elite and is probably battling teamate Justin Verlander for this season’s AL Cy Young award.
Ivan Nova is not having a particularly good season for the White Sox. Nova does have 14 quality starts in his 21 outings this season, but he also has 10 poor starts. That’s not a great ratio. The one positive is that 4 of the good starts have come in Nova’s last 4 outings. Nova’s WHIP and ERA are both very high, and his ERA metrics are even higher. That doesn’t bode well for Nova’ future. He doesn’t miss many bats these days (not that he ever did), but this season he’s given up more walks than usual (37) and more HRs (24) as well. Nova is what he is, a back of the rotation starter who can still give you innings and maybe .500 ball, but that’s about it.
With yesterday;s rainout, the Astros had a full day to think about that embarrassing loss to the Orioles on Sunday. I expected that they would be out for blood today, and right now they lead 6-2 going into the bottom of the 9th in the first game today. U expect with Cole on the Hill that they’ll win the nightcap just as easily
Pick – HTN
Added One More Parlay
2-team ML Parlay: STL + HTN (Game #2) (-113 for 2 units)
I’m also adding last minute play.
Pick – ARIZ 1st 5 ML (-133 for 2 units)
It’s young Zac Gallen v Jeff Hoffman
The Origianla COL starter was listed as Jon Gray, and I was passing on the game, but with Hoffman replacing Gray, I just have to bet on ARIZ
Young Gallen has 5 good starts and 2 medicre ones in his 7 MLB starts. I think that the Marlins made a huge mistake trading this guy. Hoffman’s been awful for the Rockies with 1 good start and 5 poor ones. I gotta take a shot with the kind.