For what it’s worth yesterday was not a particularly good day. M4 four day winning streak came to an end. I lost 1.25 units for the day. That leaves me +32.53 units for the month of July, and +65.24 units for the season.
I cashed one 2 unit ML parlay with the Rays and Dodgers, and lost one with the Indians and Red Sox. Thank to the complete ineptitude of the Red Sox. All I’ll say is that if you get shut out by the O’s with Asher Wojciechowski and than Orioles pen, you don’t deserve to be in the playoffs. The Red Sox absolutely embarrassed themselves.
I missed on my 1 unit 1st 5 looney tune special. parlay The Rockies did their part but the Rangers did not. I also pushed on a 1st 5 ML bet on the Pirates.
We’ve got small slate today, and I only really like three games, but the were all expensive, so I decided to live dangerously and used all three in parlays and round robined them this morning..
2-Tam Parlay #1 CLEV + HTN MLs (+130 for 2 units)
2-Team Parlay #2 CLEV + ARIZ MLs ((+124 for 2 units)
20Team Parlay #3 HTN + ARIZ MLs(+103 for 2 units)
3-Team Parlay CLEV + HTN + ARIZ MLs (+223 for 1 unit)
CLEV @ TOR
Starting Pitchers
7:07
|
SP 2019
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
CLEV
|
Clevinger – R
|
(5/7)
|
(2/7)
|
1.05
|
3.57
|
2.15
|
2.83
|
14.77
|
3.31
|
0.76
|
0.189
|
0.318
|
70.1%
|
0.22
|
39.1%
|
38.8%
|
TOR
|
Borucki - L*
|
(11/17)
|
(6/17)
|
1.32
|
3.87
|
3.80
|
4.80
|
6.17
|
3.04
|
0.65
|
0.253
|
0.291
|
68.5%
|
0.49
|
31.3%
|
46.8%
|
*2018
Edge – CLEV
Bullpens
Edge – CLEV
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
CLEV
|
4.55
|
20
|
-30.6
|
18
|
0.314
|
20
|
91
|
20
|
0.176
|
21
|
0.43
|
4
|
9.5%
|
7
|
22.2%
|
10
|
7.6
|
3
|
TOR
|
4.32
|
26
|
-63.7
|
24
|
0.301
|
26
|
86
|
24
|
0.177
|
18
|
0.43
|
4
|
8.1%
|
18
|
24.1%
|
21
|
-1.5
|
19
|
Edge – CLEV
Conclusion: The Indians have all the edges here. Offensoively they’re still well below average, bust still clearly better than the Jays. They also have the much better bullpen. That leaves the two starting pitchers.
Mike Clevinger has only made 7 starts, but 5 of them have been very good, including his last 3, while just 2 were poor. Of the two poor starts, one whas when he tried to pitch through an injury and the other was his first start after retruning from the IL. Other than those 2 outings, Clevinger has given up just 2 runs on 16 hits and 7 walks over 29 innings in his other 5 starts.
Ryan Borrucki was just activated from the IL and will make his first start of the season. Last season, Borrucki’s first, he showed so potential, starting 17 games for the Jay, with 11 good starts and 6 poor ones. His numbers were OK, but not great. Coming off the IL, I really don’t know what we’ll get, but I don’t expect him to be sharp or go deep.
The Indians are the better team and Cleving is the better pitcher.
Pick – CLEV
OAK @ HTN
Starting Pitchers
8:10
|
SP 2019
|
GOOS
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
OAK
|
Bailey – R
|
(10/19)
|
(7/19)
|
1.40
|
4.69
|
4.28
|
4.79
|
8.16
|
3.56
|
1.13
|
0.257
|
0.307
|
71.3%
|
0.44
|
44.2%
|
45.6%
|
HTN
|
Cole – R
|
(17/21)
|
(4/21)
|
1.03
|
3.12
|
3.14
|
2.84
|
13.47
|
2.29
|
1.46
|
0.210
|
0.300
|
79.7%
|
0.17
|
35.4%
|
41.6%
|
Edge – HTN
Bullpens
Team
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
R/IP
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
BB/K
|
K%
|
BB%
|
OAK
|
7
|
4.2
|
15
|
19
|
24
|
18
|
0.46
|
74.4%
|
1.18
|
3.90
|
4.03
|
3.77
|
0.40
|
23.6%
|
8.8%
|
HTN
|
1
|
3.3
|
22
|
9
|
26
|
12
|
0.46
|
75.2%
|
1.06
|
3.78
|
4.14
|
2.92
|
0.34
|
29.1%
|
6.8%
|
Edge – HTN
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
OAK
|
5.21
|
5
|
19.8
|
10
|
0.325
|
11
|
105
|
7
|
0.197
|
9
|
0.40
|
10
|
8.7%
|
14
|
20.0%
|
3
|
-2.2
|
21
|
HTN
|
5.20
|
9
|
85.7
|
1
|
0.344
|
2
|
119
|
1
|
0.200
|
4
|
0.47
|
2
|
9.9%
|
2
|
18.1%
|
2
|
-5.7
|
25
|
Edge – HTN
Conclusion: The A’s have played really well recently but so have the Astros. The Astros have the better offense and the much better bullpen. As for the two starting pitchers, I again give the Astros a huge edge.
Superficially Bailey looks pretty mediocre. He has 10 good starts, but 7 poor one in his 10 outings. His WHIP is mediocre and his ERA is too. His ERA metrics are pretty consistent with his ERA and mediocre. gives up a llot of hard contact, but also generates a lot of GBs. However, 5 of Bailey’s 10 good starts were all in June and July , with just 2 poor ones, so he seems to be at least trending the in the right direction. Bailey’s still no no prize.
Gerrit Cole has now thrown 17 quality starts in his 21 outings, and just 4 poor ones. Cole has had just 1 poor start since May 22and. He has a stellar WHIP and a very good ERA, His ERA metrics are even lower than his stellar ERA. Cole has also notched 194 Ks in his 129.2 innings, with only 33 walks, giving him a great BB/K as well.
Pick – HTN
ARIZ @ BALT
Starting Pitchers
9:40
|
SP 2019
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
BALT
|
Brooks – R
|
(2/8)
|
(3/8)
|
0.75
|
1.69
|
4.72
|
6.12
|
3.38
|
3.38
|
0.00
|
0.125
|
0.143
|
83.3%
|
0.36
|
37.2%
|
42.9%
|
ARIZ
|
Ray – L
|
(13/21)
|
(5/21)
|
1.30
|
3.92
|
4.25
|
4.11
|
11.69
|
4.38
|
1.46
|
0.217
|
0.286
|
76.1%
|
0.38
|
41.6%
|
39.6%
|
ARIZ
Bullpens
Edge – ARIZ
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
ARIZ
|
5.18
|
10
|
-18.0
|
16
|
0.322
|
14
|
95
|
15
|
0.188
|
12
|
0.43
|
4
|
7.7%
|
22
|
21.7%
|
8
|
7.9
|
2
|
BALT
|
4.27
|
27
|
-79.3
|
27
|
0.296
|
27
|
82
|
28
|
0.159
|
25
|
0.29
|
28
|
7.1%
|
27
|
24.2%
|
23
|
-0.5
|
18
|
Edge – ARIZ
Conclusion: The Diamondbacks aren’t all that good, but compared to the Orioles, they sure look good. Tjeir offense is mediocre, but the O’s offense is bad. Their bullpen is mediocre, but the O’s pen is awful. That leaves the two starting pitchers.
Lefty Robbie Ray Robbie Ray is rumored to be on the trade block, so any start he makes could be his last with the Dbacks. Ray has 13 good starts in his 21 outings to just 5 poor ones. Ray’s K rate is elite, but his 56 walks is high. Ray doesn’t give up many hits (89), but he does walk a lot of batters and that can be very problematic. Ray’s walks almost always put a lot of runners on base, but his FB and nasty slider gets him out of a lot of jams with a lot of timely Ks. Hitters often can’t catch up to his FB, or miss wildly on the slider, but when they make contact, they hit it hard and long. That also means that Ray has to throw a lot of pitches and as a result rarely goes deep into a start, but while he;s in the game he can absolutely dominate.
Aaron Brooks will be making his 3rd start for the Orioles tonight. The O’s seem to be using him as an opener. In each of his first 2 starts with the O’s. He only went 2.2 innings in each, giving up just 1 run on 2 hits, but 8 walks. That’s not a typo. That’s 8 walks in 5.1 innings! Brooks made 6 starts for the A’s in April, with 2 good starts, 3 poor ones and one mediocre one. In those 6 starts, Brooks gave up 21 runs (20 earned) on 32 hits (8 HRs) and 10 walks over 31.1 innings. His WHIP was mediocre, with a high ERA, and high ERA metrics. Until this season, Btooks hadn’t started a game since 2015. He didn’t impress or even stick with the A’s and I doubt he’ll be any better in BALT.
Pick - ARIZ
A Last Minute Addition
STL @ PITT
Starting Pitchers
7:05
|
SP 2019
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
STL
|
Ponce de Leon - R
|
(3/5)
|
(1/5)
|
1.07
|
2.49
|
4.01
|
4.38
|
9.24
|
3.55
|
1.07
|
0.191
|
0.233
|
88.2%
|
0.32
|
36.5%
|
46.0%
|
PITT
|
Williams - R
|
(6/13(
|
(7/13)
|
1.36
|
5.17
|
4.49
|
4.72
|
7.16
|
1.88
|
1.41
|
0.282
|
0.318
|
69.4%
|
0.26
|
37.1%
|
37.7%
|
Edge STL
Bullpens
Edge – STL smakk
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
STL
|
4.51
|
21
|
-47.1
|
22
|
0.307
|
22
|
89
|
22
|
0.157
|
26
|
0.40
|
10
|
8.8%
|
13
|
22.2%
|
10
|
6.5
|
5
|
PITT
|
4.66
|
18
|
-16.4
|
15
|
0.319
|
18
|
96
|
14
|
0.164
|
23
|
0.34
|
21
|
6.9%
|
28
|
20.2%
|
4
|
0.8
|
14
|
Edge PITT small
Conclusion: The Pirateate have the marginally better offense,and the Cards have the marfinally better bullllpens. This one comes doen to the two starting pitchers.
Danel Ponce de Leon has been mostly pretty good with 3 good starts and just 1 poor one in his 5 outings. By contrast, Trevor Williams has 6 good starts and 7poors ones in his 13 starts, but what is really troubling is that 4 of them have come since he came off the IL in his last 4 starts Williams has given up 24 earned runs on 37 hits and 6 walks in just 22.2 innings. I’m fading Williams
Pick – STL 1st 5 ML (-106 for 2 units)