For what it’s worth yesterday turned out to be a huge bounce back day for me. I was coming off a couple of really bad days, Yesterday I ended up picking up 13.49 units, and 9.88 of those units were directly attributable to parlay plays. I also cashed solo bets on the Dodgers ML, the Diamondbacks ML, the Astros 1st 5 RL and the Astros ML, but lost with the Braves 1st 5 ML and the Nats ML. I was 4-2 on those 4 plays, but
As I mentioned in yesterday’s post, I’m beginning to believe that two-team parlays might be a more profitable way to go. The fact is that in MLB big favorites usually win. The track record for big favorites (-180 or more) is incredibly strong. The problem is that they’re so damned expensive that you have to win about three of every for to show any kind of profit, and even if you manage to hit 75%of them, the profit margin isn’t all that substantial because of the high price.
Two-team parlays offer much better odds. It’s true that it’s not easy to pick one winner, without compounding the problem by trying to pick two, but as mentioned, big favorites have a superb track record, so it’s not exactly rocker science either. When parlaying a big favorite you do have to decide if that team really deserve to be such a prohibitive favorite. I used six teams in six different parlays last night. Five were 2-team parlays and one was a 3-team parlay. Of the six teams, five ( A’s, Dodgers, Red Sox, Indians, and Astros) all won their games. Only the Nationals didn’t, and in retrospect that was a bad choice on my part. There is no way that the Nats, with Fedde on the hill, should have been a -172 favorite. I was just so hell bent on fading the Orioles and Aaron Brooks that I refused to see that Fedde was no better. I should have passed that game completely and never used it as a parlay. I played two parlays on Tuesday night and split them, but I still finished up about half a unit between the two. That’s why I’m now looking to play more two team parlays. You can win money, or at least break even by hitting just 50%.
Some cappers say that the way to go is to play dogs. That may be so for small and moderate dogs, but not for big ones. As mentioned big favorites have a great track record, so fading them might not be such a good idea.
Let’s move on to today’s card.
SD @ MIA
Starting Pitchers
12:10
|
SP 2019
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
SD
|
Lamet – R
|
(0/2)
|
(0/2)
|
1.20
|
6.30
|
5.81
|
3.70
|
12.60
|
3.60
|
2.70
|
0.211
|
0.238
|
68.2%
|
0.29
|
33.3%
|
33.3%
|
MIA
|
Smith – L
|
(12/14)
|
(2/14)
|
1.04
|
3.46
|
4.34
|
3.85
|
10.85
|
3.00
|
1.73
|
0.196
|
0.233
|
83.6%
|
0.28
|
38.0%
|
28.5%
|
Edge – MIA
Bullpens
Team
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
R/IP
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
BB/K
|
K%
|
BB%
|
SD
|
5
|
1.4
|
20
|
14
|
35
|
18
|
0.59
|
68.9%
|
1.32
|
4.91
|
4.28
|
3.75
|
0.30
|
25.4%
|
7.5%
|
MIA
|
17
|
-0.4
|
9
|
18
|
20
|
8
|
0.57
|
71.7%
|
1.42
|
4.90
|
4.65
|
4.35
|
0.43
|
23.8%
|
10.3%
|
Edge – SD
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
SD
|
4.43
|
23
|
-44.9
|
21
|
0.310
|
21
|
92
|
19
|
0.187
|
14
|
0.30
|
27
|
7.8%
|
20
|
26.0%
|
30
|
-6.2
|
27
|
MIA
|
3.63
|
30
|
-112.6
|
30
|
0.286
|
30
|
78
|
29
|
0.122
|
30
|
0.27
|
30
|
6.5%
|
30
|
23.8%
|
20
|
-13.0
|
30
|
Edge SD
Conclusion: Offensively, the Padres rate a narginal edge, not because they are a good offensive team, but because the Marlins are so bad offensively. As for the bullpens, again the Padres rate the edge, the Marlins have performed surprisingly well in high leverage situations (20 saves and 8 blown saves), but every other meaningful stat that I know of till to SD. That leaves the two starting pitchers.
Dinelson Lamet is making just his third MLB start since returning from TJ surgery. Before this season, he hadn’t pitched since 2017. In his 2 starts, he’s given up 7 runs on 8 hits (3 HRs) and 4 walks over 10 innings. He also has 14 Ks. That’s not great, but it’s not bad either. I do like Lanet’s potential going forward, but maing im a road favorite, even against the Marlins is a bit much. He’s done nothing to warrant that.
Caleb Smith got off to a great start for the Marlins with 9 straight good starts. Smith has now started 14 games this season and 12 have been good, and only 2 were poor. The result is a very good WHIP and aERA. His ERA metrics are totally consistent with than his ERA. Smith has also notched 94 Ks, in 78 innings with a solid 94/26 K/BB ratio and an very low hard contact rate. Yes his BABIP is low and his strand rate is high, and those still point to some negative regression ahead for Smith. Smith is also a flyball pitcher and has given up 15 HRs. Smith’s big problem this season has been staying healthy. This is only Smith’s 4th start since May. He was excellent to open the year, pretty good in May, but he has only worked 11 innings since. He was pretty good in his last start, holding the Mets to 2 runs on 3 hits and 5 walks, with 6 Ks, over 6 innings.
I won’t risk a full game wager on an offense as bad as the Marlins, but I am willing to risk a unit on who I think is the better starting pitcher, at least for 5 innings. I don’t think that Lamet has done anthing to wrrant being any kind of favorite on the road .It’s still only a 1 unit play because these are still two bad teams.
Pick – MIA 1st 5 ML (+102 for 1 unit)
LAD @ PHIL
Starting Pitchers
12:35
|
SP 2019
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
LAD
|
Stripling - R
|
(4/10)
|
(3/10)
|
1.20
|
3.53
|
4.00
|
3.83
|
9.35
|
2.29
|
1.41
|
0.246
|
0.299
|
80.7%
|
0.28
|
33.1%
|
52.9%
|
PHIL
|
Nola - R
|
(14/20)
|
(6/20
|
1.31
|
3.63
|
3.99
|
4.17
|
10.26
|
3.70
|
1.16
|
0.236
|
0.303
|
79.0%
|
0.36
|
37.8%
|
48.4%
|
Edge – PHIL
Bullpens
Team
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
R/IP
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
BB/K
|
K%
|
BB%
|
LAD
|
10
|
1.4
|
23
|
16
|
27
|
15
|
0.54
|
68.3%
|
1.18
|
4.13
|
4.32
|
3.99
|
0.34
|
24.1%
|
8.2%
|
PHIL
|
20
|
-0.5
|
15
|
14
|
23
|
12
|
0.60
|
74.4%
|
1.49
|
4.95
|
5.17
|
4.36
|
0.43
|
22.7%
|
9.7%
|
Edge – LAD close
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
LAD
|
5.41
|
5
|
67.8
|
2
|
0.341
|
3
|
113
|
3
|
0.208
|
2
|
0.36
|
17
|
9.7%
|
3
|
20.7%
|
6
|
3.3
|
9
|
PHIL
|
4.81
|
15
|
-31.0
|
19
|
0.315
|
19
|
93
|
18
|
0.178
|
17
|
0.42
|
7
|
9.5%
|
7
|
22.6%
|
13
|
3.1
|
10
|
Edge – LAD
Conclusion: The Dodgers have the much better offense. I don’t trust either bullpen. That leaves the two starting pitchers.
This will be Ross Stripling’s 5th straight start. He’s gradually extended himself a little more each time out, and he pitched very well last time out against The Red Sox, giving up just 4 hits, including a solo HR, with 7 Ks over 5 innings. He scattered three additional hits. Before that, Stripling gave up 13 runs over 14 innings in his previous four starts. Will we get the Stripling that allowed 4 runs in back-to-back starts against the Padres and Diamondbacks before the AS break, or the one that just shut down the Red So. Stripling h Aaron Nola picked up right where he left off with 6 innings of 1 un ball to open the second half against the Nationals. He did walk4, but he also struck out 9. Nola has given up just3 earned runs over his last 5 starts with 43 Ks in 35.2
The Dodgers have a cross-country flight home after this game. With last night’s win, the Dodgers clinched a winning road trip, no matter what happens today.. A very early wake-up call today has to be a struggle given how this week has transpired. The Dodgers are still the better team but I like Nola for 5 innings
Pick – PHIL 1st 5 ML (-105 for 1 unit)
TOR @ BOS
Starting Pitchers
1:05
|
SP 2019
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
TOR
|
Pannone - L
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BOS
|
Sale - L
|
(11/19)
|
(7/19)
|
1.10
|
4.27
|
3.38
|
3.06
|
12.90
|
2.18
|
1.37
|
0.225
|
0.316
|
68.4%
|
0.17
|
33.7%
|
43.2%
|
Edge BOS
Bullpens
Team
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
R/IP
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
BB/K
|
K%
|
BB%
|
TOR
|
19
|
1.1
|
20
|
15
|
17
|
7
|
0.51
|
77.1%
|
1.37
|
4.36
|
4.70
|
4.16
|
0.40
|
24.4%
|
9.6%
|
BOS
|
16
|
2.7
|
22
|
14
|
19
|
18
|
0.56
|
72.4%
|
1.39
|
4.48
|
4.26
|
3.96
|
0.43
|
27.1%
|
10.4%
|
Edge – None
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
TOR
|
4.32
|
26
|
-63.7
|
24
|
0.301
|
26
|
86
|
24
|
0.177
|
18
|
0.43
|
4
|
8.1%
|
18
|
24.1%
|
21
|
-1.5
|
19
|
BOS
|
5.65
|
1
|
40.2
|
6
|
0.340
|
4
|
108
|
6
|
0.190
|
11
|
0.46
|
3
|
9.6%
|
5
|
20.9%
|
7
|
1.5
|
12
|
Edge – BOS big
Conclusion: Offensively this should be a mismatch. The Red Sox have the much better offense. As for the bullpens, I give neither an edge, I don’t like or trust either one. That leave the two starting pitchers.
Thomas Pannine has made 3 starts as an opener, He wasn’t in long ,and did nothing memorable. This season Pannine has given up 27 runs on 39 hits and a whopping 2o walks in h=just 39.1 innings. The Red sox face him last week in TOR and got to him for 4 runs on 4 hits and a walk over 4.1 innings. I want no part of Pannone.
Chris Sale is having a decent season, but has struggled in his last 2 starts giving up 10 runs on 16 hits and 23 walks in his last 10.1 innings. The Blue Jays have battered Sale this season scoring 14 runs (13 earned) on 23 hits and 4 walks in 14.2 combined innings.
The Red Sox are the better team and should win, but I won’t lay -266 on Sale here. Instead, I’ll parlay the Sox.
Pick – Parlay BOS ML and CLEV ML (+104 for 2 units)
I’ll write up the CLEV side later
WASH @ ATL
7:20
|
SP 2019
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
WASH
|
Strasburg - R
|
(12/19)
|
(7/19)
|
1.05
|
3.46
|
3.12
|
3.44
|
10.59
|
2.21
|
0.96
|
0.216
|
0.285
|
73.6%
|
0.21
|
25.7%
|
52.4%
|
ATL
|
Wright
|
(1/3)
|
(1/3)
|
1.79
|
7.07
|
7.21
|
6.22
|
7.97
|
6.43
|
2.57
|
0.278
|
0.282
|
73.5%
|
0.91
|
44.2%
|
45.2%
|
Edge – WASH big
Bullpens
Bullpens
Team
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
R/IP
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
BB/K
|
K%
|
BB%
|
WASH
|
18
|
1.0
|
14
|
19
|
24
|
18
|
0.70
|
64.9%
|
1.52
|
5.93
|
4.66
|
4.43
|
0.44
|
22.4%
|
9.8%
|
ATL
|
21
|
0.5
|
25
|
12
|
29
|
15
|
0.32
|
76.1%
|
1.37
|
3.74
|
4.55
|
4.30
|
0.44
|
24.2%
|
10.6%
|
Edge – ATL
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
WASH
|
4.90
|
14
|
-21.3
|
17
|
0.323
|
13
|
95
|
15
|
0.180
|
16
|
0.39
|
13
|
8.7%
|
14
|
22.1%
|
9
|
0.5
|
17
|
ATL
|
5.32
|
7
|
15.0
|
11
|
0.334
|
6
|
103
|
10
|
0.198
|
8
|
0.34
|
21
|
9.1%
|
12
|
22.3%
|
12
|
2.0
|
11
|
Edge – ATL
Conclusion: This is the Nats big opportunuty. They go into this series trailing the Brave by 6.5 games . They are also the only team with a realistic chance of catchimg the Brave run Atlanta down. Offensively, the Nats have gotten progressively better as they’ve gotten healthier. That said, the Brave had a better offense right from the starts, and until they hit MIL, they were hot. The Nats are now a pretty good offense, but the Brave are still bette. As for the two bullpens, neither one looks very good, but of the two, at least based on the numbers, the Braves are the lesser of two evils. That leaves the two starting pitchers.
Stephen Strasburg now has 12 good starts in his 19 outings, including 8 of his last 11. Strasburg also has 7 starts in which he gave up 4 or more earned runs. That’s not a great ratio, but 3 of those poor starts were in early April. Strasburg’s WHIP is very good, and his ERA is also good, His ERA metrics are even a little better than his ERA. That could points to some positive regression going forward for Strasburg, but he really couldn’t pitch a lot better than he has over the last two months. Strasbutg’s K rate is elite, with 144 Ks in 122.1 innings, and he’s combining it with a better than 50% GB rate. Strasburg has given up some walks (30), but his 0.21 BB/K is very good. Also very good is his very low (under 30%) hard contact rate. Strasburg is not getting hit hard, so as long as he stays healthy and gets run support, there’s no reason that Strasburg shouldn’t continue pitching really well.
Earlier this afternoon the Braves scratched Julio Teheran, the previously listed started and replaced him with Kyle Wright. That’s unfortunate for the Braves, but very good news for me because I bet this early this morning, and while I specifically listed Strasburg. I didn’t really care who the Braves started as long as it wasn’t Mike Soroka, and he started on Sunday. Wright is a big downgrade from Teheran IMHO. Wright made just 3 starts for the Braves, and none since April 12. He was called up for AAA to make this start. In his 3 April starts, Wright gave up 11 runs on 15 hits, including 4 HR, and 10 walks in 14 innings, with 11 Ks. The 11 Ks is nice but the 10 walks and 4 HRs stick out like a sore thumb. Wright also gave up 21 walks and 10 HRs in AAA in just over 70 innings.
I thought that the Nats had a big edge at starting pitcher with Straberg v Teheran, so I jumped on the 1st 5. Now, with Wright it should be a huge edge
Pick – WASH 1st ML (-130 for 3 units)
TB @ NYY Game #2
I'm hearing it will be JA Happ v Charlei Morotn.
Happ's been worse at home and I'll take a chance on Monton , a solid starting pitcher.
Pick - TB 1st 5 ML (-104 for 1 unit)
HTN @ LAA
Starting Pitchers
9:07
|
SP 2019
|
GOOS
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
HTN
|
Miley - L
|
(14/19)
|
(4/19)
|
1.14
|
3.32
|
4.60
|
4.54
|
7.56
|
2.82
|
1.41
|
0.221
|
0.244
|
81.4%
|
0.37
|
37.3%
|
52.2%
|
LAA
|
Harvey - R
|
(5/11)
|
(5/11)
|
1.49
|
6.88
|
5.97
|
5.54
|
6.37
|
4.02
|
1.84
|
0.265
|
0.278
|
60.7%
|
0.63
|
41.6%
|
41.3%
|
Edge – HTN
Bullpens
\HTN
|
1
|
3
|
22
|
9
|
24
|
12
|
0.49
|
74.3%
|
1.23
|
3.95
|
4.22
|
3.90
|
0.34
|
25.6%
|
8.8%
|
LAA
|
13
|
2.1
|
30
|
15
|
23
|
8
|
0.52
|
75.1%
|
1.37
|
4.43
|
4.63
|
4.21
|
0.40
|
24.2%
|
9.7%
|
Edge – HTN
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
HTN
|
5.20
|
10
|
85.7
|
1
|
0.344
|
2
|
119
|
1
|
0.200
|
4
|
0.47
|
2
|
9.9%
|
2
|
18.1%
|
2
|
-5.7
|
25
|
LAA
|
5.19
|
11
|
43.9
|
5
|
0.331
|
8
|
110
|
5
|
0.183
|
15
|
0.63
|
1
|
9.5%
|
7
|
17.8%
|
1
|
-4.0
|
23
|
Edge – HTN close
Conclusion: The Angels have been playing over their heads and out of their minds. It’s been a tremendous tribute to late teammate Tyler Skaggs, last night their amazing run ended when they faced off with Gerrit Cole. The Astros have the better offense and the much better bullpen.
Tonight the Angels won’t be facing Cole or teammate Justin Verlanded, but they won’t be facing a bullpen plug-in either. They will be facing Wade Miley. While he’s not Cole or Verlamder, Miley just keeps on delivering. He’s now tossed 14 good starts in his 19 outings. That’s compared to just 4 poor starts. Miley’s WHIP and ERA are both very good, but his ERA metrics are a full run higher than his ERA, so he could be due for some negative regression. However Mi;ley’s not giving up a lot of hard contact, and he is generating a lot Of GBs. That’s a very good combination. Miley has given up more than 3 earned runs (4) just twice all season. Miley has shown excellent contact management skills, and is more likely to keep the ball in the park because of his GB tendencies.
Matt Harvey has started 11 games for the Angels. He has 5 good starts and 5 poor ones. That’s not a very good ratio. Harvey has given up 42 runs (41 earned) on 56 hits and 24 walks over 53.2 innings. That 80 base runners in just under 54 innings. That would explain why Harvey’s WHIP, ERA and ERA metrics are all very high. Harvey’s K rate is poor and his 24 walks is a lot for a guy who pitches to contact. Harvey’s strand rate is also very low, but that should normalize some going forward, but Harvey is giving up a lot of hard contact, a lot of hits and walks. Between the hard contact and walks Harvey may very well continue to struggle.
The Astros have all the edges again tonight, and I look for them to even up this series.
Pick – HTN 1st 5 ML (-152 for 2 units) and full game ML (-144 for 3 units)