For what it’s worth, yesterday was a real grinder. I felt like I was working even harder than usual just to stay above water. I finished +0.84 units for the day, but damn, it wasn’t easy.
That leaves me +120.42 units for the month, and +54.13 units for the season.
Today, we have asmall card, so let’s get right to it. Here’s the first one.
LAD @ PHIL
Starting Pitchers
7:05
|
SP 2019
|
Team W/L
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
LAD
|
Kershaw - L
|
(11-4)
|
(11/15)
|
(3/15)
|
1.05
|
3.09
|
3.59
|
3.47
|
3.79
|
8.27
|
1.45
|
1.18
|
0.235
|
0.278
|
78.3%
|
0.18
|
40.8%
|
51.1%
|
PHIL
|
Eflin - R
|
(7-10)
|
(11/17)
|
(6/17)
|
1.30
|
3.78
|
4.66
|
4.79
|
4.70
|
7.47
|
2.34
|
1.53
|
0.261
|
0.292
|
79.0%
|
0.31
|
38.7%
|
40.7%
|
Edge – LAD
Bullpens
Edge – LAD
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
LAD
|
5.23
|
7
|
59.0
|
3
|
0.339
|
4
|
112
|
3
|
0.203
|
3
|
9.7%
|
4
|
20.3%
|
4
|
0.48
|
3
|
4.0
|
7
|
PHIL
|
4.91
|
15
|
-25.3
|
19
|
0.317
|
19
|
94
|
18
|
0.177
|
18
|
9.7%
|
4
|
22.4%
|
13
|
0.43
|
5
|
1.4
|
14
|
Edge – LAD
Conclusion: I must be crazy. I’m a numbers guy, and the numbers all point to the Dodgers here. By the numbers, the Dodgers have the much better offense, the better bullpen, and the better starting pitcher. So I’m all over the Dodgers right? Not exactly! I’ve done pretty well so far this season, but if the numbers were always right, I be be doing a hell of a lot better than I actually am.
The Dodgers are obviously the much better team, but I hate this spot for them. The Dodgers played a late game at Fenway Park in BOS last night. The game lasted almost 6 hours, then the Dodgers hopped onto a very late 90-minute flight to PHIL. Now, they have to play tonight against the Phillies. It’s one thing to have some time to settle in and give it a day before playing. It’s another thing to arrive at your next destination at 3 a.m. and then have to play a game that same night. Making the spot even worse, they’re came back after the AS break, played a tough series, on the road, against the team that beat them in the WS last season. Now, they’re still on the road, and a long way from home. The Dodgers also have a big (14.5 game) lead in the NL West and are just coming out of taking 2 of 3 from the Red Sox. How motivated will the Dodgers be tonight. If there was ever a spot for a letdown, this is it.
The Phils were fortunate to salvage yesterday’s series finale against the Nats and avoid getting swept. They’re 8.5 out in the NL East and barely holding on to the final NL wild card spot. Still, I think that the Dodgers are vulnerable here. Claytoon Kershaw has struggled in 2 of his last 3 starts, giving up 9 runs (8 earned) on 14 hits in road starts at COL and ARIZ, and the Dodgers are 0-3 in Kershaw’s last 3 starts. That’s after going 9-0 in his first 9. Kershaw’s getting by more on guile these days. He’s vulnerable. The Dodger bullpen is mediocre and can be had as well. The Dodgers should win this game and maybe I am crazy, but I’m still betting that they won’t.
Pick – PHIL 1st 5 ML (+168 for 1 unit) and full game ML (+160 for 1 unit)
ATL @ MIL
Starting Pitchers
8:10
|
SP 2019
|
Team W/L
|
Good
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
ATL
|
Fried - L
|
(12-6)
|
(10/18)
|
(6/10)
|
1.41
|
4.36
|
3.88
|
3.37
|
3.88
|
9.00
|
2.51
|
1.21
|
0.284
|
0.349
|
75.5%
|
-0.30
|
36.8%
|
54.0%
|
MIL
|
Houser - R
|
(2-3)
|
(0/5)
|
(2/5)
|
2.18
|
8.47
|
6.68
|
4.48
|
4.84
|
9.53
|
4.76
|
2.65
|
0.373
|
0.442
|
71.0%
|
0.40
|
47.4%
|
46.3%
|
Edge – ATL
Bullpens
Edge – MIL close
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
ATL
|
5.39
|
6
|
25.0
|
8
|
0.336
|
6
|
105
|
8
|
0.200
|
5
|
9.2%
|
11
|
22.2%
|
10
|
0.41
|
10
|
3.4
|
8
|
MIL
|
4.76
|
17
|
-7.5
|
14
|
0.324
|
12
|
98
|
14
|
0.199
|
6
|
9.8%
|
2
|
24.4%
|
23
|
0.40
|
11
|
3.4
|
8
|
Edge – ATL
Conclusion: The Braves have the much better offense. The Brwers probably still get a small edge in the bullpem, but the Baves pen has been better than the Brewers of late. As for the two starting pitchers, Max Fried have been very mediocre, but that still makes him much better than Adrain Houser. I think that the Braves torch Houser.
Pick – ATL 1st 5 ML (-105 for 2 units) and full game ML (-101 for 2 units)
CHI Ws @ KC
Starting Pitchers
8:15
|
SP 2019
|
Team W/L
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
CHI WS
|
Giolitto
|
(12-5)
|
(12/17)
|
(4/17
|
1.07
|
3.15
|
3.21
|
3.93
|
3.91
|
10.80
|
3.42
|
0.81
|
0.193
|
0.262
|
75.0%
|
0.32
|
30.3%
|
37.8%
|
KC
|
Junis
|
(7-12)
|
(9/18)
|
(9/18)
|
1.45
|
5.33
|
5.05
|
4.70
|
4.68
|
8.29
|
3.22
|
1.69
|
0.272
|
0.311
|
68.9%
|
0.39
|
41.6%
|
45.1%
|
Edge – CHI WS big
Bullpens
Edge – CHI WS close
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
CHI WS
|
4.36
|
23
|
-22.0
|
18
|
0.309
|
22
|
93
|
19
|
0.155
|
26
|
6.6%
|
29
|
25.4%
|
27
|
0.26
|
30
|
5.7
|
6
|
KC
|
4.28
|
25
|
-64.3
|
24
|
0.301
|
25
|
85
|
24
|
0.154
|
28
|
7.4%
|
25
|
23.4%
|
17
|
0.32
|
24
|
2.9
|
12
|
Edge – CHI WS
Conclusion: The White Sox have most of the edges here. They have the better of two weak offenses. The Royals might have a very slim edge in the bullpen, but when we get to the two starting pitchers, it’s a mismatch.
Pick – CHI WS 1st 5 ML (-120 for 2 units) and full game ML (-117 for 2 units)