For what it’s worth, after a really good Saturday (+15.21 units), I was deliberately cautious on Sunday. The two early games that I actually bet on both went my way. The Red Sox cashed their 1st 5 RL, as did the Nats, behind another great Max Scherzer outing. I also cashed my two-team 1st 5 parlay on the Sox and the Nats. Unfortunately the two late games did not go as well. The Twins got blown out by the Rangers, and the Rockies wasted a good outing from German Marquez by failing to score and dropping their 1st 5 1-0.
I still finished the day +2.80 units, and now am +17.63 units for the month, and +51.34 units for the season.
Today, we only have one game, but I do have an opinion so let’s get right to it.
HTN @ TEX
Starting Pitchers
8:00
|
SP 2019
|
Team W/L
|
GOOS
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
HTN
|
Valdez - L
|
(1-3)
|
(2/4)
|
(2/4)
|
1.40
|
6.52
|
4.91
|
3.03
|
3.42
|
9.31
|
2.79
|
1.85
|
0.266
|
0.309
|
62.5%
|
0.46
|
47.5%
|
67.2%
|
TEX
|
Lynn - R
|
(11-7)
|
(14/18)
|
(4/14)
|
1.22
|
3.21
|
2.98
|
3.84
|
3.86
|
9.63
|
2.03
|
0.78
|
0.254
|
0.329
|
72.3%
|
0.21
|
38.7%
|
42.7%
|
Edge – TEX
Bullpens
Edge – HTN
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
HTN
|
5.09
|
10
|
77.2
|
1
|
0.343
|
2
|
119
|
1
|
0.203
|
3
|
9.8%
|
2
|
17.9%
|
2
|
0.55
|
1
|
-6.9
|
27
|
TEX
|
5.39
|
6
|
-9.5
|
15
|
0.327
|
9
|
96
|
15
|
0.192
|
10
|
9.1%
|
12
|
25.9%
|
28
|
0.35
|
18
|
7.7
|
3
|
Edge – HTN
Conclusion: The is not an easy game to cap. Offensively both of these teams are loaded and dangerous. The Rangers actually score 0.3 more runs per game, but most of the other offensive stats all lean to the Astros. One other factor to consider is the rest factor. The Astros were well represented in Cleveland for the All-Star Game. Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman, and George Springer were all in the starting AL lineup. Days off are precious and those three guys really didn’t get any. By the time they got back to Houston on Wednesday, they were getting on a plane for Dallas. I think they could be a little fatigued. By contrast, the only Ranger representative was Joey Gallo, who swung at one pitch and caught a couple fly balls.
As for the two bullpens, The Astros obviously have a big edge there. They have one of the best bullpens in baseball, while the Rangers pen is, at best, very mediocre. That leaves the two starting pitchers.
Framber Valdez had started 4 games for the Astros, and also made 14 relief appearances. Of those 4 starts, the first 2 were good, but the last 2 were poor. In those starts, Valdez gave up 14 runs on 21 hits and 6 walks over 19.1 innings for a high WHIP and very high ERA. His ERA metrics were all considerably better than his ERA, which I would normally consider to be a sign pointing to positive regression, but it’s such small sample size that I’m not sure we can draw any conclusion. Valcez has a slightly below average K rate and a slightly higher than average walk rate. He also gives up a lot of chard contact, but has an excellent GB rate that allows him to often minimize damage. Because Valdez is such an extreme ground ball pitcher, the hitter friendly environment in Texas may not bother him as much as it would a more fly ball prone pitcher, but that sun-baked infield in Texas does speed up ground balls, so it may not be ideal for Valdez either. I’m just not sold on Valdez. He has great raw stuff, but is still a work in progress.
Lance Lynn has now made 18 starts this season for the Rangers, with 14 good starts to just 4 poor ones. In his 4 poor starts, Lynn got pummeled for 25 runs on 33 hits and 8 walks over 22 innings, but three of those poor outings came in his first 7 starts, and Lynn has been slowly digging himself out of that early hole. In the 14 good outings Lynn has given up just 25 total runs on 81 hits and 18 walks over 85 innings. That translates to a 1.16 WHIP and a 2.65 ERA. Overall, Lynn has a solid WHIP and ERA, and his ERA metrics are consistent with his ERA. A BABIP that is still higher than his career average tells me that Lynn was victimized by some really bad luck early on. Lynn’s K rate is excellent, with a nice 123/26 K/BB ratio and 0.21 BB/K.
I’m taking the Rangers for the 1st 5 tonight. I want no part of the full game with a very good and rested Astros bullpen. I think a couple extra days should help Lynn, and I’m not buying into Valdz. I also think the Astros might be a tired after some of their key offensive pieces missed out on some time off. Fortunately, I best thi one this morning and the line has since come down. The 1st 5 ML was only 3 cents worse than the full game ML, so I also avoid the Astros bullpen without paying a heavy price.
Pick – TEX 1st 5 ML (+125 for 2 units)