I think this is the right way to go and I will be with you at least a bit (cannot say I'm a fan of the amount of times you used "win" or "won" in your analysis haha)....his team scored him 27 runs in those 4 wins. The last 2 times at home his offense faced a lefty they yielded 6 total runs in the 2 games.
Maybe a sucker bet but the +2.5 that isn't even -200 sure is enticing