For what it’s worth, my hot streak ended abruptly yesterday and it wasn’t pretty. I had seven plays and six crashed and burned leaving me -9.10 units for the day. Still, I had won six days in a row so this was not totally unexpected. Sooner or later, I was going to have a bad day, and yesterday was that day for me, but I did not expect it to be this bad..
My first bet was a 3 unit play on the Mets ML. I obviously felt strongly about this one, but everything that could go wrong did. Nats starting pitcher Anibal Sanchez left after just 1.1 innings because of a strained left hamstring. Too bad! Fading Sachez was a big part of my handicap. I expected a strong outing from Mets starter Zack Wheeler, but he gave up 6 runs and a career-high 11 hits in 6 ugly innings. The Nats jumped all over Wheeler right away with 5 hits and 2 walks (1 intentional) in a 4-run f1st. The Mets tied it with 4 runs in the 3rd, but Wheeler gave up a 2 run HR in the 5th to give the Nats a 6-4 lead. They added another run in the 6th. The Mets rallied for 2 runs in the 9th and had the bases loaded, but couldn’t get the tying run in.
My nest two bets were 1 plays on the Tigers 1st 5 ML and the 1st 5 under in the same game. A 6-run OAK 3rd killed both bets as Spencer Turnbull had hid worst start of the season.
My next 2 bets were a 2 unit play on the 1st 5 under in the Cubs/Reds game, and the Cubs ML. This one really pissed me off. The Cubs led 2-0 going into the bottom of the 5th and Quintna was breezing along. After getting the first out, Santana gave up a solo HR cutting the lead to 2-1. That was followed by a single by opposing pitcher Luis Castillo. Quintna got the second out and had Castillo on 1st with 2 outs. There’s no way the Cubs can blow this for me right? Wrong! A single put men on 1st and 2nd . Back to back wind pitches by Quintana off a slippery mound allowed both runners to advance and Castillo to score. Another single brought in the go ahead run killing my under bet. Making matters even worse, play should have been suspended before that killer single even happened. A heavy rain was making the field unplayable. The grounds crew was just waiting to fetch the tarp. That’s when Eugenio Suarez singled home the go-ahead run, during that downpour. A 51 minute rain delay followed, and I could just feel whatever momentum that the Cubs might have had slipping away. After play resumed the Cubs got just 2 more hits. That game was a killer.
My final loser was a 2 unit 1st 5 ML play on the Blue Jays. Yes I know that the Jays are offensively challenged, but they were facing one of the absolute worst starting pitchers around in Dylan Covey. Everybody hits Covey, except apparently the Jays. They must really suck!
My solitary winner was a 2 unit play on the over in the Braves/Cards games. The Braves covered it by themselves and I avoided getting completely shut out.
Oh well, today is another day, and hopefully a better one, so let’s get to it and see if we can get rid of that bad taste that I have in my mouth. Here ar my first two games.
HTN @ BOS
Starting Pitchers
7:10
|
SP 2019
|
Team W/L
|
QS
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
HC%
|
SC %
|
GB %
|
HTN
|
Cole - R
|
(5-4)
|
(7/9)
|
(2/9)
|
1.01
|
3.88
|
2.93
|
2.34
|
2.53
|
13.90
|
2.43
|
1.46
|
0.199
|
0.288
|
64.5%
|
36.7%
|
21.7%
|
38.7%
|
BOS
|
Porcello - R
|
(5-3)
|
(4/8)
|
(3/8)
|
1.47
|
5.15
|
4.97
|
4.98
|
4.75
|
8.24
|
3.71
|
1.65
|
0.261
|
0.297
|
65.1%
|
30.4%
|
28.2%
|
38.8%
|
Gerrit Cole now has 7 quality starts in his 9 outings, and has given up at total of 28 runs ( 24 earned) on 41 hits and 15 walks over 55.2 innings, with a stellar WHIP. His ERA is solid, but his ERA metrics are nostly over a full run better than his ERA, and he’s notched 86 Ks. Those kind of numbers tell me that positive regression is coming for Cole, as does a strand rate that ids 9.6% lower than his career rate. Yet, all Cole has to show for his fine numbers is a 4-4 record along with one no decision.
On paper, Rick Porcello still looks lke a disaster so far this season. That was certainly true of his first 3 starts in which Porcello gave up 19 runs on 22 hits and 12 walks over just 11.1 innings. However since then, Porcello has tossed 4 uality starts un his last 5 outings, giving up just 11 runs on 14 hits and 6 walks over his last 32.1 innings. His WHIP is still ridiculously high and his ERA and ERA metrics are both up there as well. Still, Porcello ehas really improved dramatically since those first two starts.
Bullpens
The Astros just might have the best bullpen in baseball
Edge - HTN
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
HTN
|
5.57
|
2
|
66.2
|
1
|
0.365
|
1
|
133
|
1
|
0.229
|
2
|
-4.4
|
26
|
9.6%
|
12
|
18.7%
|
2
|
12.9
|
1
|
BOS
|
5.35
|
4
|
2.5
|
14
|
0.329
|
8
|
101
|
14
|
0.172
|
17
|
0.4
|
15
|
11.0%
|
1
|
20.4%
|
5
|
6.2
|
12
|
The Red Sox are hitting again which makes them very dangerous, but the Astros are hitting even better
Edge – HYN
Conclusion: The Astros have all the edges here. They have the better of two very good offenses, an elite bullpen, and an elite starting pitcher.
Pick – HTN ML (-132 for 2 units)
NYM @ NIA
Starting Pitchers
7:10
|
SP 2019
|
Team W/L
|
QS
|
Poor
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
HC %
|
SC %
|
GB %
|
NYM
|
deGrom - R
|
(3-5)
|
(5/8)
|
(2/8)
|
1.11
|
3.26
|
3.13
|
2.94
|
3.11
|
12.26
|
2.68
|
1.15
|
0.215
|
0.299
|
81.6%
|
38.9%
|
19.5%
|
40.0%
|
MIA
|
Richards -R
|
(0-8)
|
(4/8
|
(3/8)
|
1.37
|
4.46
|
5.21
|
5.58
|
5.11
|
8.50
|
4.89
|
1.49
|
0.219
|
0.248
|
78.1%
|
40.8%
|
12.5%
|
35.9%
|
Jacob deGrom will be making his 9th start of the season for the Met. deGrom opened the season with two brilliant outings at WASH and at MIA. He gave up no runs, 28 hits and 2 walks in a combined 13 innings, while striking out 24 batters. He certainly looked very much like the NL Cy Young winning pitcher that dominated last season. However in his nest two starts vv the Twins and at ATL, it was a completely different story. deGrom gave up 9 runs on 13 hits and 5 walks over 9 innings. The he hit the IL and missed his next start. When he returned against the Brewers, he looked very rusty giving up 5 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks over 4 shaky innings. However in his last 3 starts against the Reds, Padres, and these Marlins, deGrom was back to his dominant self, allowing just 3 total runs on 12 hits and 3 walks with 21Ks in 21 combined innings. deGrom;s WHIP and ERA are very good solid and his ERA metrics are even better than his ERA, which bodes very well for deGrom going forward. His 64/14 K/BB ratio is also excellent.
Trevor Richards opened the season strong, with three straight quality starts, giving up 4 runs and 10 hits over 18 innings. Then the Cubs ripped him for 5 runs on 4 hits and 4 walks. He rebounded some in his next start v WASH, giving up just 3 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks, but then got ripped by the Phillies in PHIL, fiving up 5 runs o 6 hits (2 HRS0 and 2 walks over 4 innings in a 12-19 loss. Richards’ WHIP and ERA are both on the high side, and his ERA metrics are over a have a run higher than his already high ERA. That points to regression on the horizon for Richards as does his low BABIP with is 46 points lower than his career nark. Another problem is his 23 in 42.1 innings this season. The walks combined with Richards’ 35 hits allowed translates to 58 baserunners. It’s difficult to believe that Richards won’t regress, especially on this sorry assed MIA team.
Edge – NYM big
Bullpens
I can’t say that I’m all that impressed with the Mets bullpen because I’m not, especially after yesterday’s painful loss. However, with all its’ shortcomings, it’s still better than what the Marlins have.
Edge - NYM
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
NYM
|
4.60
|
17
|
-0.5
|
16
|
0.314
|
19
|
101
|
14
|
0.150
|
24
|
-2.2
|
22
|
9.1%
|
16
|
24.8%
|
19
|
5.5
|
15
|
MIA
|
2.56
|
30
|
-71.4
|
30
|
0.261
|
30
|
64
|
30
|
0.088
|
30
|
-4.5
|
27
|
7.0%
|
28
|
25.2%
|
23
|
-2.0
|
30
|
After a ho starts the Mets offense has settled into mediocrity. That said, the Marlins can only wish that actually had a mediocre offense. Instead they have by afr the worst offense in baseball. Thay score almost a full run per game less than the next worse offense, the Tigers.
Edge – NYM
Conclusion: The Mets have the much better offense and the better bullpen. As for the two starting pitchers, deGrom is elite, he’s healthy again and he’s in fine form. Richards is and always has been a mediocre starting pitcher on a reakky ad team.
Pick – NYM 1st 5 RL -0.5 (-160 for 2 units) and full game RL ((-122 for 2 units)
MIL @ ATL
Starting Pitchers
7:20
|
SP 2019
|
W/L
|
QS
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
HC%
|
SC %
|
GB %
|
MIL
|
Chacin - R
|
(4-5)
|
(6/9
|
(2/9)
|
1.26
|
4.57
|
5.47
|
5.44
|
5.38
|
6.55
|
4.17
|
1.59
|
0.216
|
0.222
|
73.2%
|
41.0%
|
20.9%
|
38.9%
|
ATL
|
Fried - L
|
(5-3)
|
(5/8)
|
(2/8)
|
1.20
|
3.38
|
3.58
|
3.19
|
3.52
|
8.65
|
1.48
|
1.27
|
0.260
|
0.311
|
80.3%
|
40.6%
|
12.5%
|
51.6%
|
Jholyns Chacin has really not pitched all that well this season, but he has been able to keep the Brewers in the game in most of his starts, and that’s all the Brewers ask of their starting pitchers. Chacin has started 9 games . He’s averaging 5 innings per start, and has given up 3 runs or less in 7 of them. Chacin’s WHIP is OK, but his ERA is very high and his ERA metrics are even higher. That usually points to regression down the road. A BABIP that is 55 points lower than his career mark says the same thing. Chacin doesn’t miss many bats, his 21 walks in just over 45 innings is simply too many, and he’s giving up a far amount of hard contact. I’d say that we should look for negative regression from Chacin.
Max Fried is having a pretty good season for the Braves. He has started 8 games and has 5 quality starts and just 2 poor ones. Fried has goven up 17 runs (16 earned) on 44 hits and 9 walks over 44.1 innings, while fanning 41. Fried has a solid WHIP with a very good ERA, and eRA metrics that are totally consistent with his fine ERA.
Edge – ATL small
Bullpens
I’m skipping them since this is a 1st 5 wager, but for the record, ATL’ds pen suck and MIL’s is pretty good.
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
<IL
|
4.89
|
13
|
6.0
|
12
|
0.328
|
11
|
104
|
11
|
0.186
|
9
|
-2.1
|
21
|
10.4%
|
4
|
24.8%
|
19
|
7.2
|
9
|
ATL
|
4.84
|
15
|
11.2
|
11
|
0.329
|
8
|
104
|
11
|
0.174
|
15
|
3.6
|
4
|
9.8%
|
9
|
21.4%
|
8
|
7.3
|
8
|
We have two good ones, and they are very evenly matched
Edge – None
Conclusion: Despite the strength of the two offenses, I think the two pitchers dominate early.
Pick – 1st 5 Under 5 (+104 for 1 unit) and ATL 1st 5 ML (-130 for 1 unit)
MINN @ SEA
Starting Pitchers
10:10
|
SP 2019
|
Team W/L
|
QS
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
HC %
|
SC %
|
GB %
|
MINN
|
Perez - L
|
(4-2)
|
(4/6)
|
(1/6)
|
1.00
|
2.13
|
3.48
|
4.17
|
4.09
|
8.05
|
2.13
|
0.95
|
0.212
|
0.253
|
89.8%
|
37.9%
|
16.5%
|
36.3%
|
SEA
|
Gonxalez - L
|
(6-4)
|
(7/10)
|
(2/10)
|
1.29
|
3.18
|
3.68
|
4.90
|
4.78
|
6.67
|
2.54
|
0.79
|
0.256
|
0.295
|
68.7%
|
35.4%
|
14.9%
|
41.7%
|
Where did the Martin Perez that I used to love to fade when he was with the Rabgers go? With the Twins, the reinvented Martin Perez has been very good this season Perez has tossed 4 quality starts in his 6 outings as a starter, and just 1 poor one. Perez has allowed more than 3 earned ryun (4) just once, and has given up jusdt 9 runs on 29 hits and 9 walks over 36 innings. Hr’s also fanned 34. Perez’s WHIP and RA are both superb, but his ERA metrics are considerably higher. That could be a sign of forthcoming regression. Other arrow pointing that way would include a BABIP that’s 58 point lower than his career mark, and a strand rate that’s 20.6% higher. However, it could also be that with the Twins, Perez has truly reinvented himself. He already has one of the best cutters in baseball, even though he basically just learned the pitch this season. Perez ‘s velocity is good, he touched 96 mp and he also isn’t giving up a lot of hard contact. There’s suddenly a lot to like about the new Martin Perez.
Marco Gonzalez has pitched extremely well for the Mariners this season. He’s made 10 starts, and has tossed 7 quality starts to just 2 poor ones. However, both were in his last 3 outings. That ‘s left him with a decent WHIP and a very good3ERA. However his ERA metrics are also all higher than his ERA, and specifically his xFIP and SIERA are almost 2 runs higher. That is a sign pointing to regression. Gonzalez is what he is, a soft-tossing, pitch-to-contact type with a plus changeup and enough to get by in all of the other categories. He doesn’t miss many bats and relies on limiting his hard contact and not walking batters.
Edge - MINN
Bullpens
Edge -MINN
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
MINN
|
5.42
|
3
|
33.7
|
3
|
0.352
|
2
|
118
|
2
|
0.236
|
1
|
-3.2
|
25
|
8.2%
|
20
|
19.5%
|
3
|
10.2
|
3
|
SEA
|
5.35
|
5
|
31.6
|
4
|
0.334
|
5
|
113
|
4
|
0.224
|
3
|
2.0
|
12
|
9.7%
|
11
|
24.8%
|
19
|
5.4
|
16
|
Both teams have very capable offenses, but the Tins lead in most categories, albeit by small magins.
Edge MINN
Conclusion: The <Mariners strength is their offense, but the Twins offense is every bit as good, and according to the numbers, even a little better. The Twin have the better pen and as for the two pitchers, I give the Twins the edge there as well. My one concern in this game is that the Twins have beat on hard throwers. hat happens now when they face a junkballer like Gonzalez? I still expect the Twins to score some runs tonight.
Pick – MINN ML (+103 for 2 units)