For what it’s worth, yesterday was a tough one. I had the Braves ML as my first play. The Braves has their chances, but never got the hit they needed with runners on base. They were a pitiful 1 for 16 with runners in scoring position. The flip sode of the coin is that I could have also been much worse. The D backs had Soroka in trouble all day , but didn’t beak through untul the 7th against the Braves crappy pen. They stranded 9 runners.
The Nationals gave me at least a split for the afternoon, with a nice 4-2 win over the Giants. Patrick Corbin tossed another quality start.
I was on the Rays again, but this night it didn’t work out. I have no complaints. You back a team that ofter and once in a while, you’re bound to take a hit. /I do have a criticism though. The Rays have been very successful using their “opener” concecpt. However the key is “the bulk reliever” who follows the opener. If he screws up, you’re f**cked. Since we can never be sure who that bulk reliever is in any given game, that makes wagering on the Rays tough. They need to stop using Jalen Beeks in that role. He’s failed twice in that role already, and it not even May 1. He’s given up runs in his last 4 appearances. His stat line in those 4 games is 14 hits, 5 walks, and 7 runs in his last 9.1 innings. He’s a useless piece of excrement!
Finally I decided to play on the young Padres and Chris Paddack. A voice in the back of my head kept telling me not to trust the Pads tam. I didn’t listen. Bad mistake!
Today looks like a fun card!
The number said it might be worth taking a shot on the Dbacks this afternoon, but that voice in back of my head told me to pass. This time I listened and passed. Smart move!
SF @ PITT
Starting Pitchers
1:05
|
SP 2019
|
W/L
|
QS
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
HC %
|
SC %
|
GB %
|
SF
|
Bumgarner – L
|
(1-2)
|
(2/4)
|
(2/4)
|
0.92
|
3.12
|
4.53
|
3.96
|
3.87
|
7.96
|
1.38
|
1.73
|
0.211
|
0.224
|
63.2%
|
51.4%
|
12.5%
|
37.7%
|
PITT
|
Lyles – R
|
(1-0)
|
(1/2)
|
(0/2)
|
0.91
|
0.82
|
3.20
|
4.05
|
3.83
|
9.82
|
3.27
|
0.82
|
0.158
|
0.200
|
100.0%
|
34.6%
|
19.2%
|
46.2%
|
Tonight the Giants will go go with vet Madison Bumgarner who picked up his first win of the season in his last start vs. the Rockies on Saturday. Bugmgarner gave up just 2 runs on 6 hita and 0 walks and striking out 7 over 7 innings. It was his 2nd quality start of the season. Bumgarner may well be back. He’s had some bad luck and some bad defense this season, but he’s got a great WHIP and ERA with solid ERA metrics. The long ball has been Bumgarner’s only problem. He’s given up 5 already, but tonight, he’s pitching in a park that suppresses power. He’s struck out 23 and walked four. While he may not be the dominat pitchers he used to be, his pitches have increased in spin rate, which is a sign that he’s healthy and at only age 29 that’s a big deal.
Jordan Lyles hasb’t been a full-time starter since 2015 with the Rockies, and Coors Field isn’t a fair place to evaluate a pitcher. Lyles has made two really strong starts so far this season giving up just 1 run on 6 hits in 11 innings. He’s struck out 12 and walked 4. His WHIP and ERA are superb with solid ERA metrics.The Pirates pointed to Lyles’s pitch usage changes in 2018 as a big reason why they signed him. His numbers didn’t stand out, but his K% was the highest of his career and his BABIP was also the best of his career. That points to ihis mproved contact management. Over the last three seasons, Lyles has increases his curveball usage. He’s thrown it 32.9% of the time in his two starts this season and that has worked. Breaking balls induce weaker contact and don’t get hit as hard or as far as fastballs do.
Edge - None
Bullpens
Both of these teams have above average bullpens. The Giants pen should be in decent shape for this one and the Pirates had yesterday off, so they should be ready if needed.
Edge – SF slight
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
Giants
|
3.1
|
28
|
-41.2
|
29
|
0.260
|
30
|
59
|
29
|
0.130
|
27
|
-2.0
|
24
|
8.0%
|
24
|
25.6%
|
27
|
Pirates
|
3.69
|
23
|
-14.6
|
21
|
0.293
|
21
|
80
|
22
|
0.135
|
26
|
1.7
|
7
|
10.0%
|
9
|
25.0%
|
21
|
The Giants are definitely offensively challenged. They rank in the botton tier of the league in most offensive categories. As for the Pirates, they rank better overall, but still rank in the bottom third of the league. They also struggle with lefties. Thee there’s the park factor. PITT is another poor offensive park, and the breeze will be blowing in tonight.
Edge – PITT small
Pick – 1st 5 Under 4 (-123 for 2 units) and full game Under 7.5 (-114 for 1 unit)
BOS @ TB
Starting Pitchers
7:10
|
SP 2019
|
W/L
|
QS
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
HC %
|
SC %
|
GB %
|
BOS
|
Rogriguez - L
|
(1-2)
|
(1/3)
|
(2/3)
|
1.70
|
7.98
|
4.95
|
4.19
|
4.41
|
9.20
|
3.68
|
1.84
|
0.302
|
0.356
|
52.9%
|
31.3%
|
18.8%
|
41.7%
|
TB
|
Stanek - R
|
N/a
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
0.33
|
0.00
|
-0.56
|
0.99
|
0.84
|
16.50
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.100
|
0.222
|
100.0%
|
33.3%
|
22.2%
|
22.2%
|
Red Sox starter Eduardo Rodriguez was roughed up in two of his first three starts. He did pitch well in his last start against the Orioles, but it was the Orioles. He allowed 12 runs on 16 hits over 8 innings against the Mariners and A’s in his two starts prior to that one.
This will be Ryne Stanek’s “opener” of the season. In this previous four starts, he struck out 11 of the 20 batters that he faced only allowed 1 hit. It looks like Ryan Yarbrough will be the bulk reliever tonight. Jalen Beeks pitched (if you can call it that) yesterday and Yonny Chirinos threw 70 pitches on Wednesday, so it should be Tarbrough.
Edge – TB Bullpens
The Red Sox bullpensimply cannot be trusted. By contrast the Ray pen has been very good, but it has gotten a ton of work lately with three straight openers in the absence of Blake Snell, so that’s a concern tonight.
Edge – TB
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BOS
|
4.05
|
21
|
-19.8
|
24
|
0.291
|
23
|
79
|
23
|
0.145
|
21
|
-1.6
|
21
|
8.3%
|
21
|
22.6%
|
9
|
TB
|
5.00
|
13
|
21.8
|
3
|
0.340
|
9
|
120
|
4
|
0.185
|
13
|
3.8
|
2
|
12.2%
|
2
|
22.4%
|
8
|
The Red Sox simply haven’t hit. They’ve also had very little luck on hard contact and thatsould improvegression, but maybe not in this series against the Rays, who have an elite pitching staff.
The Rays struggled some last night, but have been a very good hitting team,
Edge – TB
Conclusion: TheRays haven’t lost back toback games all season. and they are coming off a relatively rare loss yesterday, but they still showed their character, rallying from a big deficit to send the game into extra innings.
The Red Sox haven’t showed much all season and are dealing with a suddenly panicky locker room following their ugly showing in the Bronx earlier this week.
Pick – TB ML (+101 for 3 units)
WASH @ TB
Starting Pitchers
7:10
|
SP 2019
|
W/L
|
QS
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
HC %
|
SC %
|
GB %
|
WASH
|
Sanchez
|
(0-1)
|
(1/3)
|
(1/3)
|
1.50
|
4.86
|
5.38
|
5.06
|
5.41
|
5.94
|
3.78
|
1.62
|
0.269
|
0.283
|
76.9%
|
19.6%
|
17.9%
|
37.0%
|
MIA
|
Smith
|
(1-0)
|
(2/3)
|
(0/3)
|
0.88
|
2.65
|
3.22
|
3.55
|
3.47
|
11.12
|
3.18
|
1.06
|
0.153
|
0.194
|
82.0%
|
31.6%
|
21.1%
|
29.7%
|
Sanchez has pitcher well, but Smith has pitched even better
Edge – MIA
Bullpens
They both suck
Edge – None
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
WASH
|
5.82
|
4
|
9.7
|
9
|
0.347
|
4
|
111
|
8
|
0.203
|
5
|
0.3
|
15
|
9.0%
|
16
|
21.2%
|
7
|
MIA
|
2.53
|
30
|
-34.3
|
28
|
0.266
|
28
|
65
|
27
|
0.115
|
29
|
-3.6
|
30
|
6.3%
|
30
|
24.6%
|
17
|
The Nats have an offense and the Marlins don’t
Edge – WASH big
Pick - 1st 5 Under 4 (-103 for 2 units) and MIA 1st 5 ML (-105 for 1 unit)
HTN @ TEX
SP 2019
|
W/L
|
QS
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
HC %
|
SC %
|
GB %
|
Verlander - R
|
(2-0)
|
(3/4)
|
(1/4)
|
1.04
|
3.52
|
3.93
|
3.21
|
3.11
|
11.74
|
2.35
|
1.57
|
0.207
|
0.264
|
84.1%
|
50.9%
|
1.3%
|
47.4%
|
Smyly - L
|
(0-1)
|
(0/3)
|
(2/3)
|
1.85
|
7.15
|
5.57
|
5.75
|
5.37
|
8.74
|
5.56
|
1.59
|
0.298
|
0.353
|
67.7%
|
58.3%
|
8.3%
|
25.0%
|
This is a mismatch!
Edge – HTN
Bullpens
The Rangers pen has been surprisingly good, but the Astros are even better.
Edge – HTN
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
Astros
|
4.28
|
19
|
16.4
|
4
|
0.344
|
6
|
124
|
3
|
0.185
|
13
|
-3.2
|
29
|
6.6%
|
29
|
26.3%
|
28
|
Rangers
|
5.53
|
7
|
1.5
|
18
|
0.336
|
13
|
106
|
16
|
0.195
|
11
|
-3.1
|
28
|
7.1%
|
28
|
25.5%
|
26
|
These are two potent offenses in a hitter park.
Edge – None
Conclusion: The Mariner were the best hitting team in baseball, but the Astros pitching shut them down. The Yanks are a good hitting team too, and the Astros pitching shut them down too. Verlander shouls lsown down the Rnagers, but I doubtrt that Smyly will do the same to the Astros.
Pick – HTN 1st 5 RL -1 (-120 for 2 units) and full game RL (-139 for 2 units)
NYM @ STL
Starting Pitchers
SP 2019
|
W/L
|
QS
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
HC %
|
SC %
|
GB %
|
Vsargas - L
|
(1-0)
|
(0/3)
|
(2/3)
|
2.63
|
10.13
|
7.04
|
8.10
|
7.24
|
3.38
|
6.75
|
1.69
|
0.385
|
0.391
|
63.5%
|
70.8%
|
25.0%
|
34.8%
|
Wainwright - R
|
(1-1)
|
(2/3)
|
(1/3)
|
1.13
|
3.94
|
4.04
|
4.16
|
4.16
|
9.00
|
3.38
|
1.13
|
0.207
|
0.250
|
74.1%
|
33.3%
|
19.1%
|
48.8%
|
Why is Jason Vargas still in this rotation. He sucks! He;s gone a total of 1,1 innings in his last two starts and still given up 6 hits, 3 walks and 8 runs! He;’s got a 70.3% hard contact rate!. They guy;s a walking disaster!
Wainwright has give up just 3 runs in his last two starts (12 innings, both quality starts. I don’t completely trust him, but compared to Vargas the guy looks like Cy Young.
Bullpens
The Cards pen hasn’t exactly been lights out so far this season, but the Mets pen has been even worse.
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
NYM
|
5.72
|
6
|
14.4
|
5
|
0.341
|
8
|
114
|
6
|
0.169
|
20
|
1.5
|
10
|
10.0%
|
9
|
25.0%
|
21
|
STL
|
5.28
|
9
|
9.9
|
8
|
0.339
|
11
|
108
|
12
|
0.209
|
3
|
2.9
|
3
|
11.0%
|
3
|
22.9%
|
12
|
Edge – These are two well above average offenses, but so far this season, the Mets have been the better of the two,
Edge – NYM slight
Conclusion: Both team can hit a ton, but only one has any shot on the oitching side.
Pick – 1st 5 Over 4.5 (-118 for 1 unit), full Game Over 9 ((+101 for 1 unit), and STL ML (-146 for 1 unit)
PHIL @ COL
Starting Pitchers
SP 2019
|
W/L
|
QS
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
HC %
|
SC %
|
GB %
|
Velazquez - R
|
(0-0)
|
(1/2)
|
(0/2)
|
0.82
|
2.45
|
5.20
|
5.03
|
5.31
|
4.91
|
2.45
|
1.64
|
0.162
|
0.138
|
96.8%
|
35.5
|
19.4
|
33.3
|
Marquez - R
|
(2-1)
|
(3/4)
|
(1/4)
|
0.70
|
2.00
|
3.59
|
3.45
|
3.57
|
8.33
|
2.00
|
1.00
|
0.141
|
0.156
|
89.3%
|
37.2%
|
4.5%
|
33.8%
|
Look at the ERA metrics!
Edge COL
Bullpens
Edge – None
Offense
The Phils have the better hitting attack, but the numbers are closer with the Coors factor include.
Conclusion: Marquez is used to pitching here and Velazquez isn’t
Pick – COL 1st 5 ML (-139 for 2 units)