MLB Season Message
I had a MLB service a couple of years ago, but due to lack of time I decided against continuing it. However, I've been doing a lot of background work on the last few months in order to get the needed automation to have all necessary data available and develop my own power rankings to build a predictive model. So, I've decided to only start the MLB season when all starting pitchers had a total of 20 innings pitched which is usually after three starts and so, I believe this is the right time to start. My MLB picks will be free of charge until May 5 (05/05).
MLB Pick #1: 901 New York Mets @ 902 Philadelphia Phillies
(Starting Pitchers: N. Syndergaard vs. A. Nola)
Rating: 4 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: New York Mets ML
Odds: +108 / 2.08 on Pinnacle Sports OR +109 / 2.09 on Bookmaker
Nola has been shaky in the three starts he made so far (6.46 ERA / 7.26 FIP / 5.02 SIERA) even though he was facing good opposition as he faced the Braves twice and the Nationals once, two good offensive teams. The problem was his lack of good command that is far away from his regular level (20% K% vs. 12.3% BB for a 7.7% K-BB% rate is very far away from his level in the previous seasons). He will eventually improve I believe but he's not being good enough to handle a h2h with Syndergaard.
Unlike Nola, Syndergaard has a pedestrian 4.74 ERA so far on the season but all the advanced metrics show that he has been unlucky with a 2.88 FIP, a 2.98 SIERA and an amazing 25% K-BB% rate. His last outing was against the #4 best offense Minnesota (+123 wRC+) where he only allowed one run until he got into trouble in the eight inning where he allowed three more runs. I believe the Mets will have a clear SP edge in here which will overcompensate the slight edge the Phillies might have in the hitting department. So, I'll be taking the Mets to win this game.
MLB Pick #2: 905 St Louis Cardinals @ 906 Milwaukee Brewers
(Starting Pitchers: D. Hudson vs. F. Peralta)
Rating: 4 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers ML
Odds: -127 / 1.78 on Pinnacle Sports OR -126 / 1.79 on 5Dimes
Hudson was crushed by the same Brewers on his first start of the season on a poor outing with 6.23 ERA, 10.77 FIP and 3.05 xFIP. He managed to shutdown the Dodgers even though he allowed 6 hits and 4 walks, so he was incredibly lucky with a 0.00 ERA, 4.01 FIP and 4.40 xFIP. His 6.1% K/BB% rate & 46.9% Hard Contact Rate are quite subpar and once again facing the Brewers, this won't be a good spot for him.
On the other hand, I believe Peralta will have a good spot tonight with the Cardinals coming from a series where they played in the high altitude of Mexico this weekend. He was crushed on his last start at LA against the Angels where he allowed 6 runs in the first inning, but his 19/4 K/BB ratio and 4.26 FIP + 3.61 SIERA showed that he has solid advanced numbers. I believe Milwaukee will then pick up a nice win in tonight's game.
MLB Pick #3: 907 Cincinnati Reds @ 908 Los Angeles Dodgers
(Starting Pitchers: L. Castillo vs. C. Kershaw)
Rating: 4 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs
Odds: -109 / 1.92 on Pinnacle Sports OR -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
At first sight, it looks like Castillo was great in the three starts he has already made this season with 0.92 ERA, 1.98 FIP and 3.01 xFIP. However, if I look at the quality of their opponents, they have a combined metric of 76 with 100 being the league average, which means that he clearly faced three below average offenses. Besides that, Castillo has a 42.5% HC% rate and a 50.0% Flyball rate something very dangerous when you have a Dodgers offense that is already ranked #1 in the league against RH pitchers.
On the other hand, Kershaw will have his first start of the season and he may be a bit limited regarding pitch count tonight. The Dodgers' bullpen has been shaky with a 5.14 ERA, 4.37 FIP and 4.38 xFIP and the truth is that Cincinnati's offense with a limited sample of 54 PA has been excellent against LH pitchers with a 171 wRC+ and 1.07 OPS against them, so Kershaw might not dominate tonight. I believe this game will then become a relatively high scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.