For what it’s worth, yesterday could have been a very good day, if it wasn’t for the Mets. I had a multiple unit on the 1st 5 ML and a small bet on the full game ML. I lost both. I’d make the same bet today.
Hell, I had Jacob deGrom, the NL Cy Young award winner, coming off a bad start, against a mediocre Julio Teheran. It was a great spo, or so I thought.
In the top of the 1st the Mets had runners on 2nd and 3rd , but stranded them.
In the 2nd the teams traded solo HRs.
In the 3rd the Mets get a 2-out single, and strand the runner. In the bottom of the fateful 3rd, Ozzie Albies get a leadoff single, steals 2nd, goes to 3rd on a throwing error by C Wilson Ramos, and scores on a 2 out single, 2-1 Braves.
In the top of the 4th, the Mets have runners at 1st and 2nd, but with 2 outs. deGrom strikes out to end the inning. In the 5th a leadoff single is promising, but the next 3 Mets all hit fly out and the inning is over and so was my 1st 5 bet. For the second time in a rrow, deGrom struggled, and I’m not sure why. He was constantly in trouble and it easily could have been much worse than it was.
The rest of the day was pretty good. The winners were the Rays 1st 5 and full game MLs, the Phils 1st 4 ML and the Astros ML. The only other loser was the 1st 5 under in the PITT/WASH game. Here again two supposedly elite pitcher underperform. Both Max Scherzer and Jameson Tailon have stuggled so far, and I’m just not sure why. However, what is clear is than in this era of “juiced balls” I won’t be able to count on even great pitchers to be consistent, and I damn sure better start looking for opportunities to cash with overs.
So we go back to the drawing board today and try to get a good streak going.
NYM @ PHIL
This season I expect the NL East be a 4-team scrum (sorry Marlins), with four pretty good but not great teams beating up on each other all season long, and so far that’s been the case. The Phillies (9-5) currently sit atop the division, with the Mets and Braves just a half game behind and the Nationals just 2 games back. That makes these division games very important.
Starting Pitchers
7:05
|
SP 2019
|
W/L
|
QS
|
4+ ER
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BAA
|
BABIP
|
LOB
|
HC%
|
SC %
|
GB%
|
NYM
|
Syndergaard - R
|
(1-1)
|
(1/3)
|
(2/3)
|
0.79
|
4.74
|
2.89
|
3.07
|
3.00
|
9.47
|
0.95
|
0.95
|
0.188
|
0.234
|
45.5%
|
26.5%
|
26.5%
|
57.4%
|
PHIL
|
Nola - R
|
(1-0)
|
(1/3)
|
(2/3)
|
1.43
|
6.46
|
7.26
|
4.83
|
5.01
|
7.63
|
4.7
|
2.93
|
0.246
|
0.231
|
66.7%
|
27.3%
|
27.3%
|
54.5%
|
The Mets will send big righty Noah Syndergaard to the mound. Syndergaard is only 1-1 and has just 1 quality start, but I think he’s actually pitched better than that. First of all, Syndergaard has gone at least 6 innings in all three outings, deand while he has only 1 quality start, he hasn’t given up more than 4 runs in any of his starts, and even that is a little captive. In his most recent start against the Twins, Syndergaard did give up 4 earned run but 3 of them came in the 8th with the Mets leading 9-1. Secondly, look at the numbers. Syndergaard has given up 10 earned run on 13 hits and 2 walks over 19 innings, with a stellar 20/2 K/BB ratio. Opposing baters are hitting just .188 against him. Third, look at the ERA metrics. They are all well over a run and a half lower that his misleading ERA! Now look at Syndergaard’s strand rat. It’s 45.5%! That’s crazy fluky. The League average is usually 70-76^ and Syndergaard’s career mark is 74.5%. As his strand rate normalizes, that ERA will come down probably around his career ERA of 3.00. Syndergaard’s undervalued right now.
The Phillies will counter with Aaron Nola. Nola is 1-0 with just 1 quality start and 2 in which he gave up at least 4 earned runs. Superficially, it looks a lot like Syndergaard, but not when you look closer. Nola was excellent in his first start v the Brave. He gave up 1 run .on just 2 hits over 6 innings, with 8 Ks. However, in his next 2 starts both against the Nationals, he was rocked to the tune of 11 runs (10 earned) on 12 hits and 3 walks, with lust 5 Ks. That’s left him with an ugly 1.43 WHIP and 6.48 ERA. His FIP is higher than his ERA, while his xFIP and SIERA are a little lower, but still far from good. Nola gave up just 17 HRs in 212.1 innings last season, but he’s already given up 5 in his 3 starts this season. Coming into this season, Nola was considered a bona fide ace and he may well be one. He coming off a great 2017, but right now, I think he may be a little overvalued based on last season.
It’s still much too early to be definitive about anything, but so far this season, Syndergaard’s been the better pitcher.
Edge – NYM
Bullpens
Neither bullpen has been very good, but of the two, the numbers all lean in one direction. Every Mets reliever that pitched on Saturday or Sunday gave up at least 1 run.
Edge – PHIL
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
Mets
|
6.07
|
4
|
13.6
|
6
|
0.343
|
7
|
115
|
8
|
0.174
|
18
|
1.5
|
10
|
10.4%
|
7
|
25.4%
|
23
|
PHIL
|
5.64
|
6
|
6.7
|
11
|
0.335
|
12
|
107
|
12
|
0.193
|
11
|
1.9
|
6
|
12.9%
|
2
|
21.9%
|
8
|
Offensively, both of these teams are well above average. The Mets have score a few more runs, and have the better ORAA, wOB and wRC+. The Phils have the higher ISO and BSR. They also walk more and strike out less. It’s close but…
Edge - NYM close
Conclusion: These two offenses are both good. I give the Mets a small edge there. These two bullpens aren’t all that good, but of the two, the Mets have looked worse so far. That leaves the two starting pitchers. Both Syndergaard and Nola could very well be elite, but right now, Syndergaard has simply pitched better, but has been victimizes by some bad luck. Nola has struggled more. All that could chage with a couple of good outings, vut right now I’d rather have “Thor”. The Mets pen is bad enough to keep me of the full game ML, but for 5 innings. Ill take my chances with a healthy "Thor"
Pick – NYM 1st 5 ML (-106 for 2 units)
TOR @ MINN
The 5-11 Blue Jays are off to a rough start and now travel to MINN after dropping two of three to the Rays in TOR. The 8-4 Twins currently ;ead the AL Central after sweeping the Tigers over the weekend.
Starting Pitchers
7:40
|
SP 2019
|
W/L
|
QS
|
4+ ER
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BAA
|
BABIP
|
LOB
|
HC%
|
SC %
|
GB%
|
TOR
|
Shoemaker - R
|
(3-0)
|
(2/3)
|
(0/3)
|
0.71
|
0.92
|
3.46
|
3.64
|
3.60
|
8.69
|
2.29
|
0.92
|
0.138
|
0.159
|
90.2%
|
39.1%
|
7.5%
|
54.3%
|
MINN
|
Perez - L*
|
(2-7)
|
(4/15)
|
(7/15
|
1.86
|
6.78
|
5.91
|
5.04
|
5.19
|
5.45
|
3.75
|
1.82
|
0.338
|
0.358
|
64.7%
|
42.7%
|
16.5%
|
49.4%
|
*2018 with TEX
Matt Shoemakwer will take the mond for the Blue Jays tonight, and the truth is that so far, Shoemaker’s been pretty damn good. He’s made 3 starts, at home, against BALT and DET, and on the road in BOS. He went 7 innings in each of the first two, gave up just 2 hits in each, and held both the Orioles and Tigers scoreless. In BOS, he gave up 4 runs (2 earned) on 5 hits and 2 walks over 5.2 innings, missing a 3rd quality start by 1 out. That leaves him with an excellent 0.71 WHIP and 0.91 ERA. His ERA metrics, while not quite that spectacular are still quite good. Shoemaker has also also notched 19 Ks to just 5 walks. Shoemakerstill throws his s fastball too much, but using his splitter more has helped.
The 32 year old Shoemaker has been dealing with various arm injuries over the past few seasons limiting him to just a handful of starts. His start total went from 27 in 2016 to 14 in 2017, and only 7 last season, but when he’s been healthy, he’s been effective In those 7 starts with the Angels last season, he posted a decent 1.26 WHIP and a high 4.94 ERA., but his ERA metrics were over a full run better than his bloated ERA, telling me that he actually pitched better than his ERA would suggest.. He also had a a very good 9.6 K/9. Obviously, Shoemaker has talent. The only problem has been keeping him healthy, which right now he is.
Martin Perez will be making his first start for the Twins. But he has made three appearances out of the MINN pen. In those three appearances, Perez has given up 8 runs (7 earned) on 11 hits qnd (count ‘en) 9 walks in 8.1 innings, leaving him with an ugly 2.40 WHIP and 7.56 ERA. He does have 12 Ks and he did touch 96, so at least his velocity’s good, but s for his command, he has a 12/9 K/BB ratio.
Perez wasn’t any better last season with TEX. He made 15 starts and posted a 2-7 record with more poor starts (7) than quality starts (4). That resulted inn an ugly 1.86 WHIP, a 6.78 ERA, and very high ERA metrics. Perez’s K rate was piss poor, while his his walk, HR and hard contact rates were all very high, and his 45/31 K/BB ratio was pathetic. Even in his 4 uality starts, he gave up 29 hits and 8 walks over 26 innings. I never expect much from Martin Perez, and he rarely disappoints.
Edge – TOR
Bullpens
Neither of these teams have a strong bullpen. The Twin have the better W-L record, the better save rate and better strand rate, but the Jayss have the better WHIP, ERA and ERA metrics, along with the higher K rate and the lower walk rate. I don’t see a definitive edge for either pen here.
Edge – None
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
TOR
|
5.50
|
26
|
-18.6
|
24
|
0.275
|
25
|
72
|
25
|
0.144
|
22
|
1.0
|
12
|
8.7%
|
19
|
28.9%
|
30
|
MINN
|
5.42
|
9
|
9.7
|
12
|
0.352
|
4
|
123
|
4
|
0.206
|
6
|
-2.6
|
25
|
7.7%
|
25
|
19.5%
|
4
|
When it comes to actually putting the bat on the ball, the Twins are much better. The only edges the Jays is is in the base running and walk departments. Of course walks could be a bigger eapn than usual with Perez on the mound.
Edge – MINN
Conclusion: The Twins have a big edge offensively. They are simply a much better hitting team than the Jay.s Neither bullpen is good enough to be trusted. That brings us to the two starting pitchers. Matt Shoemaker has been an effective pitcher throughout his career, as long as he’s healthy, but that hasn’t been the case very often, but he is right now. Martin Perez has been garbage throughout his career, and from what little we’ve seen from him out of the Twins pen, he still is.
Here’s the quandary. Overall, the Twins are the better team. However, while the Twins iare the much better hitting team. The Jays have the much better starting pitcher, In fact, the Twins starting pitcher is as close to an auto fade as there is. In the old days, I would aave been all over the better pitcher for at least the first 5 innings, but with today's juiced balls and HRs leaving ballparks at a record pace, I’m just not sure anymore. What the hell! I’m doing what I’ve always done with Perez, I’m fading him and hoping Shoemaker keeps it together for 5 innings.
Pick – TOR 1st 5 ML (+110 for 2 units)
LAA @ TEX
Both the Angels (8-7) and the Ranger (7-7) are basically trying to keep their head above water as the Mariners and Astros jump out to the early lead in the AL West division.
Starting Pitchers
8:05
|
SP 2019
|
W/L
|
QS
|
4+ ER
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BAA
|
BABIP
|
LOB
|
HC%
|
SC %
|
GB%
|
LAA
|
Cahill – R
|
(1-1)
|
(2/3)
|
(1/3)
|
0.89
|
3.50
|
4.04
|
4.54
|
4.05
|
8.00
|
1.00
|
1.50
|
0.209
|
0.229
|
78.1%
|
33.3%
|
19.6%
|
29.4%
|
TEX
|
Miller – R
|
(0-1)
|
(0/2)
|
(1/2)
|
3.18
|
9.53
|
7.39
|
9.67
|
8.25
|
4.76
|
12.71
|
0.00
|
0.370
|
0.417
|
70.0%
|
41.7%
|
20.8%
|
41.7%
|
Trevor Cahill will get the nod for the Angels. Cahill made 3 starts with generally positive results. He has 1 quality and hasn’t allowed more than 4 earned runs in any of his outings. Cahill has given up 7 runs on 14 hits and 2 walks over 18 innings. He’s also fanned 16. That leaves him with a very good 0.89 WHIP and a solid 3.50 ERA. However his ERA metrics are all at least a half a run higher, but still a little better than league average.. On factor is probably his abnormally low .229 BABIP which is about 56 point lower than his career .285. That tells me that Cahill’s been inordinately lucky on batter balls, and that could normalize and increase his ERA.
The Rangers will counter with Shelby Miller, and so far this season Miller has struggled. In his two starts Miller has failed to go even 4 innings. He’s given up 6 runs on 10 hits and 5 walks in just 5.2 combined innings. That’s leaft him with an awful 3.18 WHIP and 5.83 ERA. Miller’s ERA metrics are equally dreadful 3/8 K/BB ratio. Opposing batters are hitting .370 against Miller this young season.
Edge – LAA
Bullpens
Since this is a 1str 5 we’ll forgets about thee two pens.
Offenses
Simply put neither of these teams has a great offense. The Rangers are about middle of the pack. They rank 12th in RPG, 18 in ORAA, 16th in wOBA, and 17 in wRC+. Meanwhile, the Angels have been a little worse, ranking 21st in RPG, 22nd in ORAA, 24th in wOBA, and 22nd in wRC+. If this game is decided by hitting, the Rangers do have the edge.
Edge LAA
Conclusion: The Angels may not be as potent offensively as the Rangers, but the difference pales in comparison to the difference in these two starting pitchers. Trevor Cahill is a competent slightly above league averafe starting pitchers. He;s nothing special, just sort of a middle of the rotan type starter. By contrast, so far, Shelby Miller’s been a disaster. The Angels got to him for 4 runs on 4 hits and 3 walks over just 2 shaky innings 8 days ago in LA, and I expect that they’ll be able to do it again tonight.
Pick – LAA 1st 5 ML (-135 for 2 units)
CIN @ LAD
Clayton Kershaw is making his firt start since coming off the DL. Kershaw in no longer the elite best pitche in baseball that he was a few years ago. That mch was made ckear overthe past two seasons. He's lost velocity and was much more. Kershaw adapted and ws still a well above agerage starter when healthym just not as good. However, tonight he;s making his first start of the season, after comingoff the IL.
Castillo has been great - 19.2 I{P -5 hits 2 runs 25 Ks and 8 walks. I'll take a shot
Pick - CIM ML 1st 5 ML (-155 for 2 unit)