For what it’s worth, last night Clayton Kershaw unfortunately had one of his very rare poor outings (just 3 all season), and it cost him and me dearly. It was weird because Kershaw got ahead of most of the hitters he facd, but couldn’t put them away. That’s the difference between the Jershaw of a few years ago, and the one on the hill last night. Up in the count, the “old” Kershaw would have simply blown them away. Today’s Kershaw lacks the heater to do that consistently. He gave up that HR to Brewers relief pitcher Brandon Woodruff (that should NEVER happen, and then seemed to come unglued. The Dodger almost came all the way back, but almost counts for nothing.
So we move on to today’s game, still looking for get back into the black for the postseasoin.
LAD @ MIL
When I look at the Brewers starting rotation, I still find it hard to believe they’ve gotten this far. Yet here they are. And now, they lead 1-0 in the NLCS. That’s what a great bullpen will do for you.
Starting Pitchers
SP 2018
|
W-L
|
QS
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BAA
|
HC %
|
SC %
|
GB%
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Ryu - L
|
(8-3)
|
(10/16)
|
(2/16)
|
1.01
|
1.97
|
3.11
|
3.18
|
9.73
|
1.64
|
0.98
|
0.232
|
33.8%
|
20.1%
|
45.8%
|
0.281
|
85.4%
|
Miley - L
|
(5-2)
|
(6/16)
|
(2/16)
|
1.21
|
2.57
|
4.30
|
4.66
|
5.58
|
3.01
|
0.33
|
0.232
|
37.1%
|
19.5%
|
52.8%
|
0.269
|
75.9%
|
Edge – LAD
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
xFIP
|
Rank
|
SIERA
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
LAD
|
35
|
33
|
48
|
27
|
64.0%
|
89
|
75.1%
|
10
|
1.21
|
4
|
3.70
|
8
|
3.77
|
5
|
3.43
|
5
|
25.7%
|
5
|
8.2%
|
5
|
3.4
|
16
|
MIL
|
41
|
21
|
48
|
21
|
69.6%
|
92
|
76.4%
|
7
|
1.25
|
8
|
3.49
|
5
|
3.48
|
3
|
3.34
|
4
|
27.5%
|
3
|
9.5%
|
18
|
6.9
|
4
|
Edge – MIL
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
LAD
|
4.93
|
5
|
99.4
|
1
|
111
|
1
|
0.333
|
3
|
0.191
|
2
|
11.4
|
5
|
10.2%
|
1
|
22.6%
|
17
|
33.0
|
1
|
MIL
|
4.61
|
12
|
1.0
|
10
|
99
|
13
|
0.322
|
9
|
0.172
|
8
|
4.0
|
7
|
8.6%
|
16
|
23.5%
|
24
|
26.6
|
7
|
Edge – LAD
The Dodgers offense finished the season ranked #5 in Runs per Game, #1 in Offensive Runs Above Average, tied for #1 with the Yankees in Weighted Runs Created +, #3 in Weighted On Base Average , and #2 (behind only the Yankees) in Isolated Power. They also ranked #1 in Walk % and WAR. Their only real weakness is a propensity for striking out (#17). The Brewers are worse in every single offensive category.
However, when we look at the two bullpens, it’s much closer, but the Brewers rank a little better in every category that we measured. The Dodger pen isn’t bad, but the Brewer pen is just better. One factor to be considered in that the Brewer pen threw 7 innings last night, and Miley doesn’t usually go deep.
That brings us to the two starting pitchers, and here the Dodgers have a huge edge.
Hyun-Jin Ryu was awful in his first start, giving up 5 hits and 3 runs in 3.2 innings with 5 walks and 2 strikeouts. Ryu also struggled with injuries, missing almost three and a half months on the DL from early Nay until mid August. However, since returning to the Dodgers rotation on August 15, Ryu has been tremendous. Over that109 start span, Ryu delivered 7 quality starts and missed an 8th by just 1 out. That compared to just 1 poor outing (he gave up 3 runs over 4 innings). He gave up 3 earned runs or less in all 10, with 61 Ks in 59.2 innings and just 5 walks.
On the season Ryu is now 8-3 with 10 quality starts in his 16 outings and 2 near misses. That compared to hust 2 poor outings. His 1.10 WHIP and 1.97 ERA were superb, and his ERA metrics while over a full run higher than his stellar ERA were both very good. His 97/15 K/BB rate in 89.1 innings is better than a 6 to 1 ratio, and he combined it with an almost 46% GB rate.
Wade Miley will be making his 17th start for the Brewers. Miley is 5-2 with just 6 quality starts and 2 poor ones. His1.21 WHIP is OK, but not great, and his 2.57 ERA is very good. However, his ERA metrics are about 2 runs higher than his stellar ERA. That’s a big red warning flag to me. His .269 BABIP is 39 points lower than his .3-8 career mark, so Miley’s been exceedingly lucky on batted balls in play, and he give up lots of those. His GB rate is over 50%, but he’s not missing many bats. His 5.89 K/9 K rate is poor, his 3.01 BB/9 rate in high, and he giving up over 37% hard contact. Another factor is that Miley rarely goes deep. He only wemt 4.2 innings despite giving up no runs, and on the season, he’s averaging barely 5 innings per start. Those are all warning signs too!
I don’t believe in Wade Miley. I think this Dodger offense will get to him. By contrast, I’ve been very impressed with Hyu-Jin Ryum and what he’s done since returning to the Dodgers. Of course, I said the same thing last night about Gio Gonzalez and Clayton Kershaw, and look how that turned out. Gonzalez was gone before he got the chance to get into trouble, and Kershaw had one of his worst outings of the season. Still, I’m again going with the better starting pitcherr, and the better offense. The Dodgers need this game. If they can get a split here, they should be OK going back to LA 1-1. However, if they lose, they could be in trouble. I think they get the split
Pick – LAD 1st 5 ML (-122 for 2 units) and full game ML (-120 for 2 units)
HTN @ BOS
This is a simple and abvious play, maybe too obvious.
It's Jues series stin Verlander v Chris Sale. Both guys are great pitchers. The only question here is sale's health, and from what we saw in the Yankees serie ().1 IP, 5 hits 2 runs and 9 Ks), he looked good. We should see very little scoring in the 1st 5.
Pick - 1st 5 Under 3.5 (-107 for 2 units)