For what it’s worth, I’ve been licking my wounds form that Yankee/Red Sox series. I’m still trying to figure out why Yankee manager Aaron Boone, with such a deep pen, decided to bring in Lance Lynn with his season on the line. Lynn is garbage and promptly gave up a bases loaded double turning a 3-0 deficit to a 6-0 season crusher.
So we move on to today’s game, looking for redemption.
LAD @ MIL
When I look at the Brewers starting rotation, I still find it hard to believe they’ve gotten this far. Yet here they are.
Starting Pitchers
SP 2018
|
W-L
|
QS
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BAA
|
HC %
|
SC %
|
GB%
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Kershaw - L
|
(9-5)
|
21/27
|
(2/27)
|
1.04
|
2.73
|
3.19
|
3.45
|
8.65
|
1.62
|
0.95
|
0.225
|
36.2%
|
20.4%
|
47.9%
|
0.273
|
78.7%
|
Gonzalez - L
|
(10-11)
|
(12/32)
|
(10/32)
|
1.44
|
4.21
|
4.44
|
4.73
|
7.79
|
4.21
|
0.89
|
0.252
|
31.7%
|
17.1%
|
45.3%
|
0.301
|
73.3%
|
Edge – LAD big
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
xFIP
|
Rank
|
SIERA
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
LAD
|
35
|
33
|
48
|
27
|
64.0%
|
89
|
75.1%
|
10
|
1.21
|
4
|
3.70
|
8
|
3.77
|
5
|
3.43
|
5
|
25.7%
|
5
|
8.2%
|
5
|
3.4
|
16
|
MIL
|
41
|
21
|
48
|
21
|
69.6%
|
92
|
76.4%
|
7
|
1.25
|
8
|
3.49
|
5
|
3.48
|
3
|
3.34
|
4
|
27.5%
|
3
|
9.5%
|
18
|
6.9
|
4
|
Edge – MIL
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
LAD
|
4.93
|
5
|
99.4
|
1
|
111
|
1
|
0.333
|
3
|
0.191
|
2
|
11.4
|
5
|
10.2%
|
1
|
22.6%
|
17
|
33.0
|
1
|
MIL
|
4.61
|
12
|
1.0
|
10
|
99
|
13
|
0.322
|
9
|
0.172
|
8
|
4.0
|
7
|
8.6%
|
16
|
23.5%
|
24
|
26.6
|
7
|
Edge – LAD
The Dodgers offense finished the season ranked #5 in Runs per Game, #1 in Offensive Runs Above Average, tied for #1 with the Yankees in Weighted Runs Created +, #3 in Weighted On Base Average , and #2 (behind only the Yankees) in Isolated Power. They also ranked #1 in Walk % and WAR. Their only real weakness is a propensity for striking out (#17). The Brewers are worse in every single offensive category.
However, when we look at the two bullpens, it’s much closer, but the Brewers rank a little better in every category that we measured. The Dodger pen isn’t bad, but the Brewer pen is just better.
That brings us to the two starting pitchers, and here the Dodgers have a huge edge.
Amazingly, Clayton Kershaw is just 9-5, and the general consensus is that he’s had a subpar season. That’s partially true, at least by Kershaw’s lofty standards, but Kershaw has also been victimized by poor run support and some just plain ole bad luck. He has still tossed 21 quality starts in his 27 outings, including a stellar 8 inning, 2 hit shutout of the Braves in their Divisional series. That compares to just 2 poor starts all season. Kershaw has a very good 1.04 WHIP, an excellent 2.73 ERA, and very good ERA metrics. He’s still striking out close to a batter per inning (8.65 K/9), with a very good 155/12 K/BB ratio. And they say this guy’s having a bad season? Kershaw may not be quite as good as we all expected, but his numbers are still extremely strong, and confirm that he’s also been the victim of some poor run support and bad luck. So why isn’t Kershaw as dominant as he once was? Well, his 93 mph high ride fastball (ranked 8.3 above average a year ago) is now a more hittable 91.5 mph fastball (now rated 2.2 below average). Kershaw is still very good. He’s just not unhittable anymore.
Since being acquired by the Brewers, Gio Gonzalez has made 5 starts, posting a 3-0 record with a 0.95 WHIP and a 2.13 ERA, with 22 Ks and 10 walks in 25.1 innings. However, Gonzalez has just 1 quality start to 2 poor ones, and barely averaged 5 innings per start. Of course, with the Brewers superb pen, that wasn’t a problem.
On the season, Gonzalez finished 10-11 with just 12 quality starts in his 32 outings. However, he also has 10 poor starts. His 1.44 WHIP is very high, and his 4.21 ERA is just slightly better than league average, and very mediocre. His ERA metrics, are even higher than his mediocre ERA. Gonzalez 7/79 K/9 rate is lower than league average, but he is generating an over 45% GB rate. Gonazalez has always had a problem with walks, and he still does (4.21 BB/9), but at least he’s not giving up a lot of hard contact (31.7%) or HRs (0.89 HR/9). Another concern is Gonzalez’s decreasing velocity over the past few seasons. From 2010 through 2015 Gonzalez’s average FB was 93 mph, but it dropped to 92 mph in 2016 and then to 90 mph last season and again this season. Gonzalez still gets good mix out of his four pitches, (four-seamer, sinker, changeup, and curveball), and that mix is probably good enough to keep him going for about 5 innings, which is all the Brewers have asked of him, but with the reduction in his velocity, it’s just a matter of time before his performance drops even more.
I don’t have much confidence in Gio Gonzalez. I think this Dodger offense gets to him for a few early runs, and with Kershaw on the Hill, I’ll be surprised if the “Brew Crew” gets much off Kershaw. I’m going euth the elite pitcher, and I’ll avoid the red hot Brewers pen and make this a 1st 5 wager.
Pick – LAD 1st 5 ML (-155 for 3 units)