960 Blue Jays (-173) over Orioles
Going with the Blue Jays and Marco Estrada. Even though the Blue Jays are coming off being swept by the Yankees, they did manage to average 9 hits per game in the series they just weren't able to turn those hits into runs but they should be able to do that for this matchup against a lesser opponent and pitcher. Estrada has had a solid year even though it doesn't show in his individual record his 4.87 ERA and 1.26 WHIP but the Blue Jays are 10-11 when he starts. Over his last 3 starts he's 2-1 with a 4.74 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. Estrada has faced the Orioles 15 times in his career and he's been dominant going 8-2 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. He'll be matched up against Andrew Cashner and he hasn't been that good this year going 4-10 with a 4.71 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP and the Orioles are only 8-15 in games he's started. Over his last 3 starts Cashner is 1-1 with a 7.47 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. Cashner has faced the Blue Jays 5 times in his career and is 1-1 with a 2.27 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. Cashner is also supported by a bad bullpen with a 4.82 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP so if the Blue Jays lineup should be able to get enough hits and runs off of Cashner and the Orioles bullpen. Over the last 3 seasons the Blue Jays are 18-10(+3.2 units) against the Orioles in Toronto and this season the Blue Jays have owned the Orioles going 9-1(+8.1 units) in the 10 games they've played so far while going 7-0(+7 units) against them at home. Blue Jays are 7-0 in Estrada's last 7 home starts vs. the Orioles. Blue Jays are 5-1 in Estrada's last 6 starts vs. Orioles. Orioles are 31-68 in the last 99 meetings in Toronto. Orioles are 0-7 in the last 7 meetings.