For what it’s worth, we followed up our bounce back Saturday with another solid day (at least until the evening game). We placed 7 wagers on 5 games and cashed 5 of them, picking up 2.61 units in the process.
We cashed with the Yankees 1st 5 RL and full game RL, the Indians 1st 5 RL and full game RL, and the Dodgers 1st 5 RL.
Our losers were the Diamondbacks 1st 5 RL (it was 2-2 after 5), and the Phillies 1st 5 RL.
A rant: What in the hell happened in last night’s game? I really felt that this game was being played in an alternate universe where everything is ass-backwards, because this game certainly was. I sure as hell never saw this coming. It felt like I got hit by a freight train. There is absolutely no rational explanation for what happened last night.
First, the Phillies can’t hit Jason Vargas? Why in the hell not? Everybody else has, and I mean everybody. Coming into this start, Vargas had compiled a 1.78 WHIP, an 8.10 ERA and a .321 BAA. On Friday night, the Phils got to Noah Syndergaard for 3 1st inning runs, but Jason Vargas completely shuts them down for 5.1 innings? Maybe we were in an alternate universe after all. Or maybe it was Vargas pitching for the Mets on Friday, and Syndergaard on the hill yesterday.
Second, as for the Phils, I’ve watched this team blow so many games. It’s amazing that they’re still in the NL East race. You can’t lose games like this, games you’re supposed to win. This was an opportunity to retake the lead from the reeling Braves, and they puked all over it.
Third, as for Nick Pivetta, his metrics say he should be better than this, but he’s not. He seems to find ways to lose (especially when I put money on him). He doesn’t have the excuse of being on a bad team anymore. He just consistently underperforms. Last night was a classic example. He made sure his team never had a chance.
I feel better already.
On to today’s games
I won’t be able to give you detailed stats with my brief write ups today. I have a Dr. appointment this morning, and later on, another one, with my retinal specialist. You may have noticed some of my more blatant typos. I have diabetic retinopathy, and my vision’s not all that great these days. This is just a routine visit. There’s nothing wrong, but they always dilate my eyes. From that point on, I can’t read my computer screen or my keyboard, and the effects don’t wear off for about 6 hours. By the time my vision comes back, the early games will already be starting. Sorry, but no detailed stats for the early games, just picks that I’m posting early, and a little explanation. I’m not including the late (10 PM) games. My vision should have cleared up by then, and hopefully I’ll have complete breakdowns later. I will say that there’s a couple that I really like (OAK and HTN) I will definitely be on both of them in some form. Fortunately it’s a small card.
These wagers are starting pitcher specific. If the pitcher is scratched, the wager is voided.
ATL @ PITT
Starting Pitchers: Kevin Gausman v Chris Archer
The Braves definitely have the more potent offense. The bullpens are close. That leaves the starting pitchers Kevin Gausman was one of the few competent Oriole starters. Then he got lucky and was traded to the Braves at the trading deadline. Talk about a new lease on life! Gausman goes from the worst team in baseball to a contender. Gausman has 13 quality starts, including his last 2 with the Braves, in his 24 outings, and a near miss on #14. That compares to 6 poor starts. His WHIP, ERA and ERA metrics are mediocre. His K rate is low, but he is generating a decent amount of GBs. Gausman is also limiting his walks, HRs and hard contact. Now, with a good team, I would not be all that surprised if Gausman finishes strong, and helps the young Braves complete their playoff push.
Newly acquired Chris Archer is now 4-5, but has yet to go more than 5 IP, as a Pirate. Archer has 8 quality starts and a near miss in his 20 outing, but he also has 5 poor starts. His WHIP and ERA are both higher than league average, but Archer’s ERA metrics are over half a run better than his ERA. Archer’s unusually high BABIP tells me that he’s been very unlucky on batted balls, and as that normalizes, his ERA should come down. Archer is striking out over a batter per inning, but his walk and hard contact rates are both high. Archer is still primarily a two-pitch pitcher, with a 95 mph fastball, a nasty slider, and that can be problematic. He does have a change up in his repertoire, but he doesn’t trust it. As a result, the slugging rates on his two main pitches skyrocket in the later innings. Archer still strikes out a lot of batters, but he also tends to give up a lot of hard contact and a fair amount of HRs in the 4th and 5th innings, because he's still mostly throwing fastballs and sliders.
I like the Brave to win this late
Pick - ATL ML (+113 for 1 unit)
CLEV @ BOS
Starting Pitchers: Corey Kluber v Rick Porcello
This could be a playoff preview. Offensively these two teams are loaded. BOS ranks a little higher, but they are both top 3. The bullpens are a mismatch. The Red Sox have a very good one, and the Indians pen sucks.
Corey Kluber is 15-6 with 18 quality starts in his 25 outings, to just 4 bad ones. The only problem is that 4 of those poor outings have come in his last 11 starts. His WHIP, ERA and ERA metrics are still outstanding. Kluber is still striking out close to a batter per inning with a low walk rate. He does give up a few HRs from time to time, but that’s about it. During his bad stretch, his knees were bothering him, but an injection seems to have fixed the problem. Since getting the injection Kluber’s looked good again with 4 straight quality starts.
Rick Porcello is also having a fine season. He’s 15-6, with 16 quality starts to 8 poor ones. His WHIP, ERA and ERA metrics are all very good. Porcello’s K rate is a little better than league average, and Porcello combines it with a solid GB rate. Porcello has also been able to limit his walks, HRs (a big problem last season), and hard contact.
Porcello is good, but Kluber is elite
Pick – CLEV 1st 1 ML (-115 for 1 unit)
SF @ NYM
The Giants are fading in the NL West 8 back, and the Mets are long gone.
Neither of these offenses is very good, but the Mets get a small statistical edge pretty much across the board.
In the bullpen, the edges are reversed, and the Giants appear to be the better of 2 shaky pens.
As for the starting pitchers, the Mets appear to have a close but clear edge.
Derek Holland has started 23 games, and he’s 6-8 with just 5 quality starts. He also has 6 starts in which he’s given up 4 earned runs . His WHIP is high, and his ERA and metrics are mediocre. Holland is getting Ks, but still walking too many.
Zack Wheeler is pitching really well for the downtrodden Mets. He’s now 8-6, but he has won 6 straight games. Wheeler has 13 quality starts in his 23 outings, including 5 of his last 6 and 7 of his last 9. That compares favorably to just 7 poor ones, in which he gave up at least 4 earned runs. His WHIP and ERA are both better than Holland’s, as are his ERA metrics. Wheeler is striking out almost a batter per inning, but his walks are a little on the high side. Most impressive is his very low hard contact rate, and high soft contact rate. Wheeler is giving up just 1.7% more hard contact than soft.
I’m going with the hot hand
Pick – NYM ML (-112 for 1 unit)
CIN @ MIL
Starting Pitchers: Homer Bailey v Chase Anderson
The Reds are a 1 trick pony. They can hit, better than the Brewers. However, the Brewers have the much better pen.
That leaves the two starting pitchers, and here, even with Chase Anderson, the Brewers have a big edge.
Poor Homer Bailey! Bailey has had to overcome a lot of serious injury issues just to get back into the Reds starting rotation. Now that he’s there, Bailey has mostly struggled, and has also had nothing but bad luck. He’s a wretched 1-10 in his 14 starts. Bailey does have 5 quality starts, including 2 of his last 4, and missed a 6th by just 1 out. However, he’s unfortunately lost 3 of the quality starts, and he’s also had 9 lousy starts, in which he’s given up at least 4 earned runs, including his last 2. He has a lousy WHIP, and a very high ERA and ERA metrics. Bailey’s K rate is poor, his walk rate is high, and he’s giving up a lot of hard contact and HRs (18). There’s just not much going right for Homer Bailey.
Chase Anderson has been a lot more inconsistent this season than last. He’s 7-7 in his 24 starts, with 10 quality starts, and another that he missed by just 1 out. However, Anderson also has 7 starts in which he has given up at least 4 earned runs. His WHIP is solid, and his ERA is decent. However, his ERA metrics are about a full run higher than his ERA. Anderson has a weak K rate, and high walk and HR rates. He also has an abnormally low BABIP, that is about 50 points higher than his career .281. That tells me that Anderson has been very lucky on batted balls in play. Still he’s a .500 pitcher, and with a good pen, a better bet than Homer Bailey
Pick – MIL 1st 5 RL (-140 for 1 unit)
Have a great day, and God willing, we’ll be back later tonight. BOL!
TEX @ OAK
Starting Pitchers
SP 2018
|
W-L
|
QS
|
4 ER
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
HC %
|
SC %
|
GB %
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Colon
|
(7-10)
|
(9/22)
|
)9/23)
|
1.29
|
5.32
|
4.75
|
4.90
|
4.76
|
1.59
|
1.30
|
0.275
|
43.2%
|
15.3%
|
42.5%
|
0.275
|
68.4%
|
Fiers
|
(8/6)
|
(11/23)
|
(5/23
|
1.20
|
3.38
|
4.67
|
4.36
|
6.91
|
1.80
|
1.52
|
0.255
|
38.4%
|
16.7%
|
38.5%
|
0.278
|
83.8%
|
Edge – OAK
Bullpens
TEX
|
19
|
20
|
34
|
12
|
73.9%
|
71.1%
|
25
|
1.29
|
12
|
4.09
|
17
|
4.11
|
15
|
3.84
|
16
|
3.6
|
10
|
Athletics
|
32
|
10
|
37
|
11
|
77.1%
|
77.7%
|
5
|
1.25
|
7
|
3.37
|
5
|
4.06
|
11
|
3.75
|
14
|
4.6
|
6
|
Edge – OAK
Offenses
Edge – OAK small
Conclusion: After losing the final game of their weekend series with the Astros, the As now trail the Astros in the AL west by just 1 game. Thhe A’s currently holding doen the 2nd AL wildcard spot, 4 games behind the Yankees and 3.5 games ahead of the Mariners. Meanwhile, the Rangers sit at the bottom of the division 14 games below .500, and well out of the playoff race.
Bothe of these teams have potent, well above average offenses. The Rangers score 0.15 more runs per games, but all of the offensive metrics favor thee A’s, albeit by a small margin.
The bullpen edge is clearer. While the Rangers bullpen ranks as slightly above average, the A’s pen is ranked even higher.
That leaves the two starting pitchers, and here I think the A’s have a big edge.
At 45, Bartolo Colon has somehow managed to deliver 9 quality starts in his 22 outings, but he also has 9 poor starts, in which he’s given up at least 4 earned runs. That many quality starts is surprising for the “old fat guy”. His WHIP is around league average, but his ERA is atrocious, and his ERA metrics, while not quite as bad as his ERA, are not very far behind. That’s not suprising. Colon doesn’t miss many bats anymore, his K rate is piss poor, but he also doesn’t walk that many either. These days Colon pitches to contact, and so far, based on his high hard contact rate and low BABIP (about 20 points lower than his career mark), those balls are being hit hard, but more often than not, right at fielders. That won’t last. Another problem is that too many balls are leaving the ballpark. Colon has given up 26 HRs already this season. At 45, my opinion remains unchanged. The “old fat guy” is on his last legs. I expect that he gets lit up again tonight.
As for Mike Fiers, the newly acquired Fiers started 21 games for the Tigers before the trade to the A’s, and 2 for the A’s. Fiers has pitched well. He is 8-6 with 11 quality starts, including 7 of his last 9, and 2 more that he missed by just 1 out. He does have 5 starts in which he gave up at least 4 earned runs, but just 1 in his last 10 outings. His WHIP is solid and his ERA is very good. However, his ERA metrics are over a full run higher than his ERA. Fiers doesn’t get a lot of strikeouts, but he also doesn’t give up a lot of walks either. Like Co;on, he does give up a lot of HRs (22 in his 23 starts). Since the calendar turned to June, Fiers has been great. He’s only 4-3, but with a 1.12 WHIP and a 2.62 ERA over that 13 game stretch.
The A’s have all the edges here, most significantly, a big edge at starting pitcher. Additionally this game is much more important to them, at it’s at home where the A’s are 37-26. Everything points to the A’s here.
Pick – OAK 1st 5 RL (-135 for 2 units) and full game ML (-190 for 2 units)
HTN @ SEA
Starting Pitchers
SP 2018
|
W-L
|
QS
|
4 ER
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
HC %
|
SC %
|
GB %
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Cole - R
|
(11-5)
|
(17/25)
|
(4/25)
|
0.98
|
2.71
|
2.96
|
0.02
|
12.34
|
2.82
|
0.79
|
0.187
|
33.0%
|
19.0%
|
35.7%
|
0.275
|
78.1%
|
Hernandez
|
(8-10)
|
(7/23)
|
(8/23
|
1.44
|
5.73
|
4.73
|
4.67
|
7.19
|
3.34
|
1.45
|
0.265
|
39.6%
|
15.6%
|
45.0%
|
0.296
|
62.7%
|
Edge – HTN big
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV%
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
xFIP
|
Rank
|
SIERA
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
HTN
|
21
|
17
|
29
|
15
|
65.9%
|
78.4%
|
3
|
1.04
|
1
|
3.05
|
1
|
3.12
|
1
|
2.73
|
1
|
5.8
|
3
|
SEA
|
26
|
17
|
49
|
20
|
71.0%
|
73.0%
|
15
|
1.25
|
7
|
3.91
|
13
|
4.05
|
10
|
3.51
|
5
|
4.6
|
6
|
Edge – HTN
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Astros
|
4.9
|
4
|
50.3
|
4
|
110
|
3
|
0.327
|
5
|
0.173
|
9
|
19.1
|
9
|
SEA
|
4.13
|
22
|
-2.9
|
13
|
101
|
9
|
0.314
|
18
|
0.156
|
20
|
13.2
|
18
|
Edge – HTN
Conclusion: With yesterday’s win, the Astros regained the lead in the AL West and avoided being swept by the A’s. They now lead the A’s by a game. The Mariners are 4.5 game back and also trail the A’s by 3.5 games for the final AL wildcard spot.
The Mariners have a decent offense, but the Astos simply hit much better.
When we look at the bullpens, although the Mariners are the team with the elite closer, Edwin Diaz, it’s the Astros pen that has the better numbers.
That leaves the two starting pitchers, and here, I give HTN a huge edge.
Gerrit Cole is 11-5, with 17 quality starts, and a near miss, as compared to just 4 poor ones. He has a great WHIP, ERA and ERA metrics. He’s averaging over 6.21innings per start, and even in his 4 “poor” starts, he only gave up 4 runs in each. Cole has notched 219 Ks to just 50 walks. He possesses a high-nineties fastball, a plus slider, a good curve, and a changeup, with no command problems. He has the total package. After 5 years in PITT, Cole must have believed that he died and went to heaven, after getting traded to the Astros.
“Kimg Felix” Hernandez has stiuggled this season. He’s just 8-10 in his 23 starts, and he does have 7 quality starts and missed an 8th by just 1 out. However he also has 9 starts in which he’s given up at least 4 earned runs. The result is n high WHIP, a very high ERA, and ERA metrics that aren’t bery far behind, and still bad. His K rate is down significantly from his career mark, and his walk rate is up, as is his 1HR rate “King Felix” used to be elite, one of the best pitchers in baseball. That’s no longer the case. He’s barely getting by.
Everything points to the Astros here.
Pick – HTN 1st 5 RL (-125 for 2 units) and Full game L (-164 for 2 units)