For what it’s worth, we’re “back in the saddle again. After a mediocre Friday, we bounced back with a nice Saturday. We posted 8 plays and cashed 6 for a +6.97 units. We cashed with the Pirates 1st 5 ML and full game ML), the Indians 1st 5 RL, the Astros 1st 5 RL and full game RL, and the Dodgers 1st 5 RL. Our only losers were the Dodgers full game ML (I still can’t figure this team out) and the Giants 1st 5ML. Madison Bumgarner held the A’s scoreless through 4, but the Giants only gave him 1 run, and the A’s got to him for 3 in the 5th.
What in the hell is wrong with the Dodgers. They go on a little run to convince you that they’re for real. Then they blow a game like this, with Kershaw on the mound, no less. And what the hell is wrong with Kershaw? His numbers are fine, but he pitches just well enough to lose
On to today’s games!
BALT @ TOR
Starting Pitchers
SP 2018
|
W-L
|
QS
|
4 ER
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
HC %
|
SC %
|
GB %
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Cashner - R
|
(2-9)
|
(9/18)
|
(5/18)
|
1.52
|
4.56
|
4.65
|
4.81
|
7.24
|
3.84
|
1.43
|
0.276
|
31.6%
|
18.9%
|
41.2%
|
0.312
|
75.2%
|
Happ - L
|
(10-6)_
|
(8/19)
|
(7/19)
|
1.19
|
4.29
|
3.75
|
3.62
|
9.99
|
2.89
|
1.40
|
0.228
|
30.2%
|
20.7%
|
44.4%
|
0.280
|
67.2%
|
Edge – TOR
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
xFIP
|
Rank
|
SIERA
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
BALT
|
11
|
20
|
17
|
11
|
60.7%
|
73.6%
|
15
|
1.50
|
29
|
4.27
|
20
|
4.50
|
27
|
4.22
|
29
|
2.8
|
TOR
|
22
|
14
|
24
|
17
|
58.6%
|
76.3%
|
10
|
1.35
|
18
|
3.89
|
15
|
4.25
|
22
|
3.73
|
15
|
2.2
|
Edge – TOR
Offenses
Team
|
R/PG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
BALT
|
3.57
|
30
|
-84.7
|
29
|
81
|
29
|
0.290
|
29
|
0.152
|
22
|
-1.6
|
30
|
TOR
|
4.48
|
13
|
-25.4
|
15
|
98
|
13
|
0.315
|
13
|
0.181
|
5
|
6.6
|
24
|
Edge – TOR
Conclusion: The Jays are by no means a good team, but they are still much better than the pathetic Orioles, now without Manny Machado.
The Jays have a decent offense. It is slightly above average, and that makes them much better than the Machado=less, punchless Orioles.
The Jays do not have a good biullpen, but they are still measurably better than the O’s wretched pen.
As for the two starting pitchers, JA Happ is a good pitcher. He has 9 quality starts and missed a 10th by just 1 out. However, he also has 8 poor starts. The problem is that 3 of the 8 poor one were his last 3 outings. July has been a horror show for Happ. Overall, his WHIP is solid, but his ERA is on the high side. However his ERA metrics are over a half a run better than his ERA. A abnormally low strand rate, in this season of high strand rates, explains some of the discrepancy. With the exception of the 1st half of July, Happ’s generally pitched well. He’s striking out well over a batter per inning, and limiting his walks and hard contact.
By contrast, Andrew Cashner still puzzles me a little. He’s 2-9, and that’s hardly surprising, Especially on a team as bad as the O’s. What is surprising is that he’s somehow managed to toss 9 quality starts, and just missed a 10th by 1 out, with only 5 poor starts, in which he gave up at least 4 earned runs. His WHIP is exceedingly high, and his ERA is high as well. His ERA metrics are even higher than his ERA, and none of that is surprising either. His K rate is much lower than Happ’s and his walk rate is much higher. His BAA and hard contact rate is higher, and his GB and soft contact are lower. Other than the disproportionately high number of quality starts, and the relatively low number of poor ones, there’s not much else to like about Cashner. I guess hitters are having some trouble making good contact with Cashner’s slop. Still, the bottom line is that Cashner is giving up too many hits, too many walks, and too many HRs to consistently get by.
I can’t say that I’m completely comfortable with Happ, especially with the way he’s pitched this month, but everythhinbg point to TOR here, including BALT’s wretched 28-71 overall record, and even worse 12-38 mark on the road. I guess that’s why a mediocre team like the Jays is over -200 here.
Pick – TOR RL (-108 for 2 units)
BOS @ DET
Starting Pitchers
SP 2018
|
W-L
|
QS
|
4 ER
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
HC %
|
SC %
|
GB %
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Sale - L
|
(10-4)
|
(15/20)
|
(2/20)
|
0.90
|
2.23
|
2.43
|
2.40
|
13.12
|
2.16
|
0.70
|
0.183
|
26.7%
|
28.5%
|
44.9%
|
0.281
|
82.0%
|
Hardy - L
|
(3-1)
|
(4/8)
|
(1/8)
|
1.24
|
3.71
|
4.73
|
4.59
|
6.18
|
2.06
|
1.03
|
0.260
|
36.7%
|
20.9%
|
41.2%
|
0.291
|
71.4%
|
Edge – BOS
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
xFIP
|
Rank
|
SIERA
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
BOS
|
21
|
8
|
34
|
8
|
81.0%
|
78.1%
|
6
|
1.22
|
7
|
3.27
|
5
|
3.69
|
5
|
3.45
|
6
|
4.6
|
3
|
DET
|
18
|
22
|
24
|
18
|
57.1%
|
72.4%
|
19
|
1.43
|
25
|
4.45
|
22
|
4.54
|
28
|
4.19
|
27
|
1.0
|
25
|
Edge – BOS
Offenses
Team
|
R/PG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
BOS
|
5.31
|
1
|
62.7
|
3
|
115
|
1
|
0.343
|
1
|
0.191
|
2
|
19.5
|
3
|
DET
|
3.91
|
26
|
-56.6
|
25
|
86
|
27
|
0.299
|
25
|
0.141
|
26
|
6.6
|
24
|
Edge – BOS
Conclusion: The Red Sox have pretty all the edges in this game. First of all they have one of the best offenses in baseball. Of course, that makes it completely inexplicable that they’ve scored just 1 run in the fitrs two games of this series. By contrast, the Tigers definitely quality as offensively challenged, yet they’ve score 5? Go figure.
The same type of mismatch exists in the bullpens. The Red Sox have an elite pen, while the Tigers’ pen is a major liability. Yet, amazingly the Tiger pen has held up in the first two games of this series?
That leaves the two starting pitchers. Chris Sale has been superb. Sale has 15 quality starts, and just 2 poor ones, with an excellent WHIP, ERA, and ERA metrics. He has an elite K rate, a very low BAA, and amazingly, a soft contact rate that’s actually 1.8% better than his hard contact rate. Sale is elite.
Blaine Hardy is in his 5th season with DET, and had never started an MLB game before this season. However, Hardy is 3-1 in his 8 starts this season,4 quality starts to just 1 poor one. His WHIP and ERA are both solid, but his ERA metrics are almost a full run higher than his ERA, and 2 full runs higher than Sale’s. Hardy;s K rate is weak and his GB rate is lower than Sale’s.
The Red Sox should win this one easily, and that’s why BOS is well over -300 here. Of course, that was also the case in the first two games of this series, and they sure as hell did not turn out that way. Still I think the Sox “O” breaks out today.
Pick – BOS RL (-178 for 2 units)
ATL @ WASH
Starting Pitchers
SP 2018
|
W-L
|
QS
|
4 ER
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
HC %
|
SC %
|
GB %
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Foltynewicz
|
(7-5)
|
(5/18)
|
(3/18)
|
1.11
|
2.66
|
3.53
|
3.65
|
10.62
|
3.72
|
0.89
|
0.192
|
34.5%
|
19.3%
|
43.5%
|
0.254
|
80.4%
|
Scherzer
|
(12-5)
|
(17/20)
|
(2/20)
|
0.90
|
2.41
|
3.14
|
2.74
|
12.16
|
2.27
|
1.00
|
0.179
|
31.3%
|
23.7%
|
35.5%
|
0.249
|
83.2%
|
Edge – WASH
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
xFIP
|
Rank
|
SIERA
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
WASH
|
16
|
13
|
28
|
8
|
77.8%
|
77.2%
|
9
|
1.17
|
3
|
3.64
|
9
|
4.11
|
16
|
3.60
|
8
|
1.7
|
18
|
ATL
|
16
|
17
|
23
|
11
|
67.6%
|
71.2%
|
22
|
1.33
|
17
|
4.24
|
19
|
4.16
|
18
|
3.98
|
23
|
2.1
|
17
|
Edge – WASH
Offenses
Edge – ATL
Conclusion: This is the classic better pitching v better hitting quandary. The Braves have the better offense. The Nats are a below average hitting team, while the Braves are well above average.
The bullpen has been a Braves’ weakness all season, while the Nats pen is a well above average unit.
That takes us to the two starting pitchers. if it weren’t for bad luck, Max Scherzer might have no luck at all. At one point, Schezer tossed 5 straight quality starts, and was 0-4 with a no-decision during that span. Overall, Scherzer has tossed 17 quality starts to just 2 bad ones. Scherzer’s WHIP, ERA and metrics are all spectacular. His K rate is elite and he’s limiting walks and HRs. He just needs a few runs.
Mike Foltynewicz has made 18starts and is 7-5 with 5 quality starts. And 3 poor ones, His WHIP and ERA are bothe very good, but his m whule still good, are about a full run higher than his ERA. “Folty” is also striking out well over a batter per inning and his 120/42 K/B ratio is close to a 3 to 1 ratio, but his walks are high and can become an issue. Between all the strikeouts and all the walks, he’s averaging 97-98 pitches per start, but under 5.2 innings per start. and with the Braves shaky bullpen, that can be problematic. Of the 5 pitches in his repertoire, only his changeup grades out as above average, and even that is only slightly above average. It’s also his least-used pitch. The other 4 are very mediocre. At 26, he’s still young, and he gets his fair share of strikeouts, but he needs to limit his walks, and go deeper in his outings.
This is no slam dunk, because the Nats offense just can’t be relied on, and for the most part, Foltynewicz has been solid for the 1st 5 innings. Still I’ve got to go with the elite starting pitcher and hope the Nats get him a few runs.
Pick – WASH 1st 5 RL (-145 for 2 units)
CLEV @ TEX
Starting Pitchers
4.52
|
4.74
|
SP 2018
|
W-L
|
QS
|
4 ER
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
HC %
|
SC %
|
GB %
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Clevinger
|
(7-5(
|
(11/19)
|
(6/19)
|
1.24
|
3.47
|
3.93
|
3.99
|
8.70
|
2.95
|
0.74
|
0.243
|
44.7%
|
14.0%
|
41.3%
|
0.307
|
74.8%
|
Gallardo
|
(3-1)
|
(1/5)
|
(3/5)
|
1.43
|
6.75
|
4.52
|
4.74
|
5.79
|
2.89
|
1.29
|
0.28
|
35.5%
|
16.0%
|
49.5%
|
0.303
|
52.3%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Edge – CLEV
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
xFIP
|
Rank
|
SIERA
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
CLEV
|
7
|
16
|
24
|
12
|
66,7%
|
68.7%
|
27
|
1.32
|
16
|
5.28
|
29
|
4.15
|
17
|
3.69
|
13
|
-0.9
|
28
|
TEX
|
16
|
15
|
27
|
9
|
75.0%
|
73.4%
|
16
|
1.26
|
11
|
3.48
|
7
|
3.94
|
9
|
3.71
|
14
|
3.8
|
7
|
Edge – TEX
Offenses
Edge – CLEV
Conclusion: The Indians have a top tier offense, while the Rangers are below average offensively.
However, when we get to the bullpens, the Rangers with an above average pen have a big edge over an Indians pen that pretty much stunk put the joint in the 1st half. However, the Indians just acquired SD closer Brad Hand (2 wins, 24 saves, 5 blown save, 1.03 WHIP and 3.05 ERA). That should help. It didn’t last night as both pens looked bad and Hand gave up a solo HR in his first appearance as an Indian.
As for the starting pitchers, Mike Clevinger has 11 quality starts, as compared to 5 poor ones. His WHIP, ERA and metrics are all solid. Clevinger is striking out close to a batter per inning, while limiting his walks and HRs. The only discernible weakness in his game is a very hogh hard contact rate.
Yovani Gallard is somehow 3-1 in 5 starts for TEX. He has just 1 quality start to 3 poor ones, and he’s given up at least 3 earnedd runs in all 5. His WHIP, ERA and metrics are all way up there. Gallardo’s K rate is poor, but he has generated an almost 50% GB rate, but that’s it for positives. In 45 starts over the past two seasons with BALT and SEAm he posted an 11-19 record with a 1.55 WHIP and a 5.57 ERA. I have less faith in Gallardo, that I did in Bartolo Colon last night.
I have very little faith in the CLREV pen, but like they did to Bartolo Colon last night, the Indians should pound Gallardo.
Pick – CLEV 1st 5 RL (-134 for 2 units)
HTN @ LAA
Starting Pitchers
SP 2018
|
W-L
|
QS
|
4 ER
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
HC %
|
SC %
|
GB %
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
McCullers
|
(10-4)
|
(13/19)
|
(3/19)
|
1.15
|
3.77
|
3.49
|
3.65
|
9.53
|
3.45
|
0.88
|
0.210
|
32.3%
|
19.2%
|
55.9%
|
0.268
|
70.5%
|
Heaney
|
(5-6)
|
(11/17)
|
(4/17)
|
1.16
|
3.78
|
3.84
|
3.83
|
8.97
|
2.64
|
1.14
|
0.228
|
35.8%
|
20.8%
|
40.6%
|
0.276
|
69.0%
|
Edge – HTN small
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
xFIP
|
Rank
|
SIERA
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
HTN
|
17
|
14
|
25
|
12
|
67.6%
|
80.0%
|
3
|
1.03
|
1
|
2.75
|
2
|
3.09
|
1
|
2.73
|
1
|
5.1
|
2
|
LAA
|
18
|
18
|
22
|
17
|
56.4%
|
80.1%
|
2
|
1.36
|
19
|
3.81
|
14
|
4.18
|
19
|
3.80
|
16
|
0.5
|
26
|
Edge – HTN big
Offenses
Edge – HTN
Conclusion: The Astros (56-35) lead the Angels (49-50) by 16 games in the tough AL West. In this matchup, the Astros appear to have all the edges. The Angels have a good offense, but the Astros are even better. As ffor the bullpens, the Astros have an excellent bullpens, while the Angels have a we’ll below average pen.
That leaves the two starting pitchers, Lance McCullers is a damned good pitcher. He’s 10-4 with 13 quality starts and 3 absolutely horrendous ones. His WHIP ERA and metrics are all very good. He’s striking out over a batter per inning AND generating overe a 55% GB rate. That’s great! And opposing batters are hitting just .209 against him.
Andrew Heaney has also put up some damned good numbers. He has 11 quality start to just 4 poor ones. His WHIP and ERA are both very good, as are his metrics. He is striking out almost a batter per inning, while limiting the walks and HRs.
Heaney is putting up some good numbers, but McCullers number are just a little bit better. With the exception of a higher walk rate and slitly less soft contact, McCullers has most of the other edges.
There’s just not much reason to consider the Angels here. As mentioned, the Astros have big edges on offense and in the bullpen, as well as a small edge at starting pitcher, and that doesn’t even take into account their excellent 34-14 road record.
Pick – HTN 1ML (-123 for 2 units)
SD @ PHIL
Starting Pitchers
SP 2018
|
W-L
|
QS
|
4 ER
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
HC %
|
SC %
|
GB%
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Perdomo - R
|
(1-4)
|
(0/7)
|
(4/7)
|
2.10
|
7.55
|
5.05
|
5.20
|
7.55
|
5.23
|
0.87
|
0.343
|
40.5%
|
14.4%
|
40.9%
|
0.407
|
62.1%
|
Velasquez - R
|
(5-9)
|
(9/18)
|
(5/18)
|
1.24
|
4.39
|
3.82
|
3.67
|
10.49
|
3.34
|
1.24
|
0.229
|
32.3%
|
17.3%
|
37.9%
|
0.294
|
68.5%
|
Edge – PHIL
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
xFIP
|
Rank
|
SIERA
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
SD
|
16
|
18
|
26
|
9
|
74.3%
|
71.2%
|
22
|
1.21
|
5
|
3.67
|
12
|
3.65
|
4
|
3.33
|
3
|
4.6
|
3
|
PHIL
|
17
|
13
|
29
|
11
|
72.5%
|
74.9%
|
11
|
1.31
|
15
|
4.08
|
17
|
3.93
|
8
|
3.62
|
9
|
2.6
|
14
|
Edge – SD small
Offense
Team
|
R/PG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
SD
|
3.70
|
28
|
-82.5
|
28
|
83
|
28
|
0.290
|
29
|
0.135
|
28
|
4.4
|
28
|
PHIL
|
4.40
|
16
|
-29.1
|
20
|
92
|
21
|
0.309
|
21
|
0.154
|
21
|
8.5
|
21
|
Edge – PHIL
Conclusion: The PHILs (54-42) who lead the NL East by just a half game over the Braves, don’t have a particularly good offense, although it certainly looked good last night in putting up 11 runs. It is clearly better than the Padres (40-60) pathetic bunch.
When we look at these two bullpens, the numbers say that although it is close, the Padres have the better bullpen. However last night, they gave up 8 hits and 4 runs over 5 innings. Of course, the Pads put up their first half numbers with Brad Hand (2 wins, 24 saves, 5 blown saves, 1.03 WHIP and 3.05 ERA), who they just traded to the Indians earlier this week. If these two pens were close before the Hand trade, it’s extremely close now, and could actually be dead even, or maybe even lean slightly to PHIL now.
As for the two starting pitchers, Luis Perdomo has now started 3 games after being demoted, and spending 2½ months with Triple-A El Paso, and so far we’ve seen no improvement. Perdomo has given up 21 hits and 12 earned runs, over 17 combined innings since he returned, with 9 Ks and 9 walks. The result is an 0-2 record, no quality starts, 2 very poor ones, an ugly 1.76 WHIP, and an astronomical 6.35 ERA. In his 4 April starts prior to his demotion., Perdomo posted a 1-2 with no quality starts and 2 poor ones, giving him a high WHIP, and a sky high ERA. The demotion didn’t change anything. Peromo’s WHIP, ERA and ERA metrics are still atrocious. His K rate is mediocre, his wlak rate is exceedingly high. He’s giving up a ton of hard contact and opposing baters are lighting him up.
Vince Velasquez is only 5-9, but he’s delivered 9 quality starts, and missed a10th by just 1 out. Six of them, and the near miss were all in his last 10 starts. Velasquez has given up more than 4 earned run 5 rimes this season, leaving him with an elevated WHIP and a high ERA. However, his ERA metrics, are more than a full run lower than his bloated ERA. To a certain extent, Velasquez’s WHIP and ERA are both exaggerated because of one horrible outing, in which he gave up 9 hits and 10 runs in 3.2 innings against the Brewers. Absent that one awful start, Velasquez would have a solid WHIP and a decent ERA. He has an excellent K rate, but his walk rate is high (another reason for his elevated WHIP).
I still don’t trust the PHIL pen, so we’ll confine this to a 1st 5 wager on Arrieta.
Pick – PHIL 1st 5 RL (-130 for 2 units)
NYM @ NYY
Starting Pitchers
SP 2018
|
W-L
|
QS
|
4 ER
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
HC %
|
SC %
|
GB%
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
deGrom
|
(5-4)
|
(15/19)
|
(1/19)
|
0.97
|
1.68
|
2.74
|
2.94
|
10.87
|
2.19
|
0.51
|
0.200
|
29.6%
|
23.3%
|
46.6%
|
0.282
|
85.9%
|
Tanaka
|
(7-2)
|
(7/15)
|
(6/15)
|
1.13
|
4.54
|
3.78
|
3.71
|
8.96
|
2.38
|
1.94
|
0.229
|
35.3%
|
19.0%
|
44.7%
|
0.252
|
74.2%
|
Edge – NYM
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
xFIP
|
Rank
|
SIERA
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
NYM
|
19
|
23
|
23
|
14
|
62.2%
|
73.7%
|
13
|
1.41
|
22
|
4.73
|
26
|
4.65
|
29
|
4.14
|
26
|
-1.1
|
29
|
NYY
|
22
|
13
|
30
|
8
|
78.9%
|
78.3%
|
5
|
1.08
|
2
|
2.69
|
1
|
3.24
|
2
|
2.86
|
2
|
6.6
|
1
|
Edge – NYY big
Offenses
Team
|
R/PG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
NYM
|
3.92
|
25
|
-50.9
|
23
|
89
|
23
|
0.298
|
26
|
0.150
|
23
|
5.9
|
26
|
NYY
|
5219
|
3
|
71.4
|
1
|
115
|
1
|
0.340
|
2
|
0.211
|
1
|
20.3
|
2
|
Edge – NYY
Conclusion: This game troubles me, because I have two opinions about it. The Yanks do have a stellar offense, while the Mets often struggle to score runs. The same analysis holds true when we look at the two bullpens. The Yanks pen is elite, while the Mets pen is below average and very mediocre; and that was before they traded their closer Famiia during the weekend. The Yanks (63-34)are one of the best teams in baseball, and appear to be headed to the post season, while the Mets (40-56) sit right alongside the Marlins, at the bottom of the NL East, and speculation swirls around the possibly imminent trades of tonight’s SP Jacob deGrom and/or Noah Syndergaard prior to the trading deadline. So, why does this game trouble me? The answer is because of the two starting pitchers.
Jacob deGrom is an elite starting pitcher and he’s quietly having a great season. He’s only 5-4, thanks to some really poor run support, but he has tossed 15 quality starts in his 19 outings, and missed #16 by just 1 out. He also has just 1 start, in which he gave up as many as 4 earned runs. deGrom is striking out well over a batter per inning, limits his walks and doesn’t give up the long ball. His hard contact is low, his soft contact is high and he’s generating GBs. deGrom is elite, and he’s going to make some contender very happy, by the time we hit the trade deadline. My only concern is that he might be a little distracted by all the trade talk and uncertainty surrounding the Mets. Frankly, if I were him, I’d be looking forward to getting out of that mess in Queens and pitching for a contender.
Masahiro Tanaka is 7-2 with 7 quality starts in his 15 outings, but he also has 6 starts in which he’s gpven up at least 4 earned runs. HisWHIP is good, but his ERA is high. However, his ERA metrics are about ¾ of a run lower than his ERA, so he’s actually pitched better than his ERA would suggest, but his numbers qre nowhere near as good as deGrom’s. He is striking just under a batter per inning, but he has had a problem with the long ball (18 in 15 starts), which sort of explains the high ERA. Other than that, Tanaka’s been solid.
I don’t like the Mets chances of actually win this game with their weak offense, and shaky bullpen, but I could also see the free swinging Yanks doing a lot of flailing and missing against deGrom. We decided to go with deGrom for 5 innings and hope the Mets get a few off Tanaka.
Pick – NYM 1st 5 ML (+130 for 2 units)