955 Nationals RL(-1.5 -128) over Mets
Going with the Nationals and Max Scherzer. Nationals are coming off losing a series against the Pirates with their ace going so I think it's a great spot to beat up on a team in the Mets that are horrible at home posting a 17-30 record (-17.6 units) and batting .207 as a team at home. Scherzer has been great all season as usual going 11-5 in 19 starts with a 2.33 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP and he's been great on the road as well and in his last 3 starts he's posted a 3.60 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. Over his career Scherzer has faced the Mets 14 times and has a 8-4 record with a 2.27 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP. He'll be matched up with Steven Matz who also has been great this year but doesn't show in his overall record going 4-6 in 17 starts but posting a solid 3.31 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. Matz does have a 4.17 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP at home and over his last 3 starts he has a 1.93 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. Matz has faced the Nationals 6 times in his career and has a 1-2 record while posting a great 2.37 ERA and 1.00 WHIP so he's pretty good against the Nationals but the Mets bullpen isn't great posting a 4.53 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP so I'm looking for the Nationals lineup to be disciplined at the plate going deep into counts driving up Matz's pitch count and get into the bullpen early. The Nationals have won 4 of their last 7 games and are hitting .287 as a team. Daniel Murphy and Mark Reynolds are comfortable facing Matz as both are hitting .300 or better off of him. Over the last 3 seasons the Nationals are 16-7(+9.8 units) against the Mets in New York. Nationals are 4-0 in Scherzer's last 4 road starts vs. the Mets. Nationals are 5-1 in Scherzer's last 6 starts vs. the Mets. Nationals are 49-17 in the last 66 meetings in New York.