For what it’s worth, we pretty much broke even yesterday as the Astros and Brewers cost us multiple units. Fortunately, the Tigers (1st 5), Red Sox (RL), Braves (1st 5) and Indians (1st 5) all cashed leavindown just 0.48 units for the day.
Then there’s poor Jacob deGrom, who can’t catch a single break. He pitched his ass off and again had nothing to show for it. He needs to get the hell out of Queens ASAP.
On to today’s games
OAK @ HTN
Starting Pitchers
SP 2018
|
W-L
|
QS
|
4 ER
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
HC %
|
SC %
|
GB%
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Cahill - R
|
(1-2)
|
(5/8)
|
(2/8)
|
0.99
|
2.77
|
2.91
|
3.10
|
8.69
|
2.03
|
0.74
|
0.211
|
44.9%
|
10.2%
|
60.2%
|
0.266
|
76.6%
|
Morton - R
|
(11-2)
|
(13/18)
|
((3/18)*
|
1.12
|
2.83
|
3.05
|
3.22
|
11.8
|
3.58
|
0.92
|
0.198
|
33.2%
|
23.3%
|
49.8%
|
0.277
|
81.3%
|
Edge – HTN
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
xFIP
|
Rank
|
SIERA
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
OAK
|
22
|
8
|
27
|
6
|
81.8%
|
77.6%
|
8
|
1.29
|
13
|
3.59
|
9
|
4.11
|
16
|
3.82
|
19
|
2.5
|
14
|
HTN
|
17
|
13
|
23
|
10
|
69.7%
|
81.6%
|
2
|
1.02
|
1
|
2.62
|
2
|
3.05
|
1
|
2.68
|
1
|
4.6
|
2
|
Edge – HTN
Offenses
Team
|
R PG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
OAK
|
4.65
|
10
|
12.2
|
8
|
105
|
6
|
0.320
|
10
|
13.8
|
8
|
0.179
|
6
|
HTN
|
5.06
|
4
|
71.4
|
1
|
117
|
1
|
0.336
|
3
|
18.5
|
2
|
0.175
|
7
|
Edge – HTN
Conclusion: The A’s have a good offense. It’s well above average, and they certainly looked it in last night’s 8-3 pounding of the Astros. However, the Astros offense, despite yesterday’s performance, is even better. The same holds true for the bullpens. The A’s have a strong bullpen, but the Astros pen is still better, even with the demotion of closer Ken Giles. That leaves the two starting pitchers.
Trevor Cahill has pitched very effectively for OAK this season, but he’s only started 8 games and none since June 2, as a result of an elbow impingement that landed him of the DL. Cahill does have 5 quality starts to just 2 poor ones, with an excellent WHIP, ERA, and ERA metrics. Cahill has given up just 30 hits and walked only 9 for a superb 0.89 WHIP. Before he went down, Cahill was striking out close to a batter per inning, while generating a 60% plus GB rate, and limiting his walks and HRs. The weakest part of his game is his very high hard contact rate, and his very low soft contact rate. Of course, it is a small sample size, based on data that is over a month old. Last season, between the Padres and Royals, Cahill was 4-3 with a 1.62 WHIP, a 4.93 ERA a 9.82 K/09 and a 4.82 BB/9. He has a career 1.37 WHIP and 4.09 ERA.
Charlie Morton has gotten off to a great start for the Astros. He’s 11-2 with 13 quality starts compared to just 4 poor ones. Morton also has and excellent WHIP, ERA and ERA metrics, but his numbers are based on 18 starts. Morton is striking out well over a batter per inning, while still generating just under a 50% GB rate, but his walks are high and could be problematic. Unlike Cahill, his hard contact rate is over 11%lower, while his soft contact rate is more than 13% higher.
Based on the numbers, these pitchers look pretty evenly matched, but in this case, I think the numbers are a little deceptive. Cahill hasn’t started an MLB game in over a month, and his numbers are based on just 8 starts, while Morton’s are based on 18 starts. Also, that 8-start stretch was probably the best stretch of his career. Morton’s been putting up thise kinds of numbers ever since he got to HTN. The Astros are the better team here, but they have struggled with the A’s in this series, so this is just a 1 unit wager.
Pick – HTN 1st 5 RL (-125 for 1 unit)
MIL @ PITT
Starting Pitchers
SP 2018
|
W-L
|
QS
|
4 ER
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
HC %
|
SC %
|
GB %
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Miley
|
(1-0)
|
(1/2)
|
(0/2)
|
1.26
|
1.42
|
5.05
|
5.77
|
5.68
|
5.68
|
0.00
|
0.174
|
68.4%
|
10.5%
|
47.4%
|
0.211
|
87.5%
|
Taillon - R
|
(5-7)
|
(8/18_)*
|
(3/18)
|
1.23
|
4.05
|
3.65
|
3.81
|
8.57
|
2.52
|
0.99
|
0.245
|
31.9%
|
21.7%
|
50.0%
|
0.312
|
71.3%
|
Edge – PITT
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
xFIP
|
Rank
|
SIERA
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
MIL
|
20
|
12
|
26
|
15
|
63.4%
|
78.1%
|
6
|
1.22
|
9
|
3.14
|
5
|
3.36
|
3
|
3.29
|
4
|
4.5
|
3
|
PITT
|
14
|
14
|
22
|
12
|
64.7%
|
70.0%
|
25
|
1.40
|
23
|
4.50
|
24
|
3.97
|
12
|
3.67
|
11
|
2,4
|
15
|
Edge – MIL
Offenses
Team
|
R PG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
MIL
|
4.42
|
13
|
-22.5
|
18
|
93
|
19
|
0.315
|
12
|
12.9
|
11
|
0.168
|
9
|
PITT
|
4.32
|
20
|
-28.7
|
20
|
94
|
16
|
0.310
|
19
|
8.7
|
19
|
0.152
|
21
|
Edge - MIL
Conclusion: Both of these team possess mediocre offense. The Brewers hold most of the statistical edges, but not by large margins.
By contrast, when we get to the bullpens, the Brewers have a big edge. Their bullpens is one of the big strengths of this Brewers team. On the other hand, the Pirates pen is mediocre and below average. If this game gets decided late, MIL has a good shot at winning.
That leaves just the two starting pitchers, and there I think PITT has the edge. Wade Miley will be making just his 3rd start for the Brewers, so we start by realizing that we have a very, very small sample size for Miley this season. Miley did toss a quality start (6 IP, 3 hits, 1 run, 4 Ks, 3 BBs) in his first outing at CIN, but had to leave his 2nd start after just 19 pitches with a strained right oblique. He’s given up 4 hit and 1 run over 7.1 innings with 4 Ks and 4 walks. His WHIP is a little high but OK, and his ERA is stellar, but his ERA metrics are about 3 to 4 runs higher. His poor 4/4 K/BB ratio doesn’t help, but honestly, it’s such a small sample size, that’s it’s almost meaningless. However, for his career, Miley is 67-74, with a high 1.40 WHIP and 4.36 ERA. His ERA metrics, a 3.96 xFIP and 4.17 SIERA are a little better than his ERA. His 7.20 K/9 rate is mediocre and his 3.14 BB/9 is high. I don’t have a lot of confidence in Miley going forward.
Jameson Taillon is only 5-7, but he does have 5 quality starts and a near miss by 1 out. His WHIP is solid, his ERA is around league average, but unlike Miley, his ERA metrics are better than his ERA. Taillon is striking out almost a batter per inning, and generating a 50% GB rate. He doesn’t walk nearly as many as Miley and gives up fewer HRs as well. He does occasionally get into trouble, if his sinker isn’t sinking, but that doesn’t happen often.
I can’t make a solid case for a full game wager on the Pirates, with the edge that the Brewers have in the pen, and I can’t justify a wager on the Brewers with Miley on the hill. So, I’’’ cautious put a unit on PTT 1st 5 and hope that Taillon’s sinker is working tonight.
Pick – PITT 1st 5 ML (-126 for 1 unit)
WASH @ NYM
Starting Pitchers
SP 2018
|
W-L
|
QS
|
4 ER
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
HC %
|
SC %
|
GB %
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Scherzer - R
|
(11-5)
|
(16/19)
|
(2/19)
|
0.89
|
2.33
|
2.99
|
2.62
|
12.48
|
2.26
|
0.92
|
0.178
|
31.0%
|
23.6%
|
36.2%
|
0.255
|
82.7%
|
Matz - L
|
(4-6)
|
(7/17)
|
(2/17)
|
1.23
|
3.31
|
4.24
|
4.23
|
8.13
|
3.51
|
1.30
|
0.224
|
31.9%
|
17.3%
|
52.0%
|
0.257
|
78.2%
|
Edge – WASH
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
xFIP
|
Rank
|
SIERA
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
WASH
|
16
|
13
|
27
|
8
|
77.1%
|
75.8%
|
10
|
1.18
|
4
|
3.84
|
13
|
4.11
|
16
|
3.58
|
9
|
1.6
|
20
|
NYM
|
19
|
22
|
21
|
14
|
60.0%
|
73.0%
|
16
|
1.42
|
24
|
4.87
|
26
|
4.60
|
29
|
4.10
|
26
|
0.9
|
28
|
Edge – WAS
Offenses
Team
|
R PG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
Nationals
|
4.35
|
17
|
-21.9
|
16
|
94
|
16
|
0.313
|
14
|
11.0
|
14
|
0.159
|
18
|
NYM
|
3.86
|
26
|
-39.5
|
23
|
90
|
23
|
0.301
|
26
|
6.5
|
24
|
0.151
|
23
|
Edge – WASH
Conclusion: WASH has all the edges here. They have the better of two mediocre offenses, and the much better bullpen.
As for the two starting pitchers, if it weren’t for bad luck, Max Scherzer would have no luck at all. The poor guy’s tossed 5 straight quality starts in his 5 games before his last start, and was 0-4 with a no-decision during that span. Finally, in his last starts, Scherzer was off, but the Nats gave his plenty of runs for a change. Overall, he’s tossed 16 quality starts in his 19 outings to just 2 bad ones. Scherzer’s WHIP, ERA and metrics are all spectacular. His K rate is elite and he’s limiting walks and HRs. He just needs a few runs.
In 17 starts Steven Matz has a 4-6 record, 7 quality starts to just 2 poor ones. His WHIP and ERA are both solid, but his ERA metrics are about a run higher than his ERA. His strikeouts, his walks a little high, but he;s also generating GBs, and has generally pitched well.
Matz is pitching well, but the Mets are not playing well. They can’t hit. Scherzer ius elite, and coming off a relatively poor start. The Mets are just what he needs.
Pick – WASH 1st 5 RL (-140 for 2 units)
NYY @ CLEV
This is Luis Severino and Corey Kluber
It’s a very low total but I’ve got to give it a shot.
Pick – 1st 5 UNDER 3.5 (+108 for 1 unit)
TB @ MINN
Starting Pitchers
SP 2018
|
W-L
|
QS
|
4 ER
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
HC %
|
SC %
|
GB %
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Snell - l
|
(12-4)
|
(14/19)**
|
(3/19)
|
1.03
|
2.09
|
3.48
|
3.59
|
10.24
|
3.41
|
0.93
|
0.182
|
34.2%
|
18.9%
|
43.0%
|
0.234
|
88.2%
|
Gibson - r
|
(3-6)
|
(10/18)*
|
(4/18)
|
1.27
|
3.59
|
3.91
|
4.17
|
8.78
|
3.85
|
1.00
|
0.226
|
36.9%
|
19.1%
|
48.0%
|
0.276
|
77.1%
|
Edge – TB
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
xFIP
|
Rank
|
SIERA
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
TB
|
23
|
22
|
28
|
12
|
70.0%
|
74.8%
|
12
|
1.19
|
5
|
3.44
|
7
|
4.16
|
18
|
3.81
|
18
|
3.1
|
9
|
MINN
|
14
|
18
|
20
|
17
|
54.1%
|
74.6%
|
13
|
1.38
|
21
|
4.43
|
23
|
3.88
|
7
|
3.48
|
7
|
1.7
|
18
|
Edge – TB slight
Offenses
Team
|
R PG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
TB
|
3.98
|
24
|
-14.2
|
12
|
98
|
12
|
0.310
|
19
|
9.5
|
17
|
0.134
|
27
|
MINN
|
4.34
|
18
|
-32.6
|
22
|
92
|
22
|
0.307
|
22
|
6.5
|
24
|
0.161
|
14
|
Edge – TB very slight
Conclusion: Tjhese two offenses are very close. MINN actually has the higher runs per hame number, but TB holds most of the edges on the offensive metrics.
Both of these bullpens are very mediocre, but the Rays do rank a little higher.
As for the two starting pitchers, Blake Snell has been on an incredible roll this season. It appears that he is finally be tapping into that enormous potential that we’ve all seen flashes of. Snell is 12-4 with 114quality starts to only 3 poor ones, and he missed 2 more by just 1 out. His WHIP is superb 1.06, and his ERA is excellent. Snell ‘s advanced ERA metrics are over a fun higher than his stellar ERA, but still quite good, He is striking out over a batter per inning).and has significantly reduced his walks. I think everyone can agree that he got screwed, when he wasn’t named to the AL AS roster.
Kyle Gibson, has 10 quality starts, and missed an 11th by hyst 1 out, and he’s given up at least 4 earned runs just 4 times this season/ Gibson is striking out almost a batter per inning and is also generating a 48%GB rate. That’s a very good combo. However, his walk rate is high and could be problematic. He has reduced his curveball usage in favor of increasing his slider by about 5%, and he completely changed his approach with his slider. Instead of using it to get strikes in the zone and off the plate, he uses it almost exclusively down-and-glove-side to both right-handers and left-handers alike. This has turned a negative pitch into a positive one. Everything just got better when Gibson became aggressive with his slider.
There’s nothing that stand out here giving either team a big edge, but, the Rays have the slightly better, offense, the slightly better bullpen, and as well as Kyle Gibson has pitched, Blake Snell has pitched better.
Pick – TB ML (-132 for 2 units)
SEA @ LAA
Starting Pitchers
SP 2018
|
W-L
|
QS
|
4 ER
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
HC %
|
SC %
|
GB %
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Paxton - L
|
(8-3)
|
(12/19)
|
(6/19)
|
1.07
|
3.49
|
3.01
|
2.94
|
11.68
|
2.50
|
1.06
|
0.213
|
34.2%
|
18.4%
|
33.2%
|
0.292
|
75.7%
|
Skaggs - L
|
(6-5)
|
(8/16)
|
(2/16)
|
1.22
|
2.64
|
3.37
|
3.48
|
9.78
|
2.64
|
0.78
|
0.244
|
37.3%
|
12.4%
|
47.0%
|
0.320
|
81.9%
|
Edge – SEA
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
xFIP
|
Rank
|
SIERA
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
SEA
|
19
|
12
|
37
|
15
|
71.2%
|
73.6%
|
15
|
1.21
|
7
|
3.76
|
11
|
3.92
|
9
|
3.35
|
5
|
3.4
|
7
|
LAA
|
17
|
16
|
22
|
15
|
59.5%
|
79.7%
|
3
|
1.37
|
20
|
3.95
|
16
|
4.17
|
19
|
3.79
|
17
|
9.2
|
26
|
Edge – SEA
Offenses
Team
|
R PG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
SEA
|
4.29
|
21
|
21.8
|
7
|
107
|
4
|
0.321
|
9
|
13.1
|
10
|
0.161
|
14
|
LAA
|
4.34
|
19
|
4.9
|
10
|
101
|
9
|
0.313
|
14
|
12.8
|
12
|
0.167
|
10
|
Edge – SEA small
Conclusion: Both of these teams can hit, and both are well above average offensively. But the Mariner rank a little higher in most categories.
The Mariners have a legitimately good bullpen, while the Angels pen is very mediocre and problematic.
As for the two starting pitchers, they are both quality lefties. James Paxton already has a 16 K game and a no-no on his resume this season. He has thrown 12 quality starts in his 19 outings, as compared to just 6 poor ones. He sports an excellent WHIP and ERA, and his ERA metrics are about half a run better than his ERA. His K rate is elite, and he’s limiting his walks, HRs, and hard contact. A combination o of high Ks and walks sometimes limits him to about 6 IP, but for those 6 innings, he’s been as good as anybody.
Tyler Skaggs is pitching very well. He’s only 6-5, but he has 8 quality starts, and just 2 really bad ones, in which he gave up 14 hits, 7 walks, and 11 runs in 9.1 innings. Overall, Skaggs has an OK WHIP, and an excellent ERA. However, if we eliminate those 2 bad outings, Skaggs has a great WHIP and ERA over his other 14 starts. His advance ERA metrics are more than a half a run higher than his ERA, but still very good. Skaggs is striking out over a batter per inning, with a solid GB rate and his walk rate is acceptable.
Skaggs has been mostly very good, but Paxton has been even better. The same holds true for these two offense, and if it’s decided late SEA has a ckear edge in the bullpen.
Pick SEA ML (-110 for 2 units)
LAD @ SD
Starting Pitchers
SP 2018
|
W-L
|
QS
|
4 ER
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
HC %
|
SC %
|
GB %
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Stripling - R
|
(7-2)
|
(7/13)
|
(2/13)
|
1.05
|
2.55
|
2.52
|
2.65
|
10.46
|
0.85
|
1.22
|
0.247
|
28.1%
|
20-.2%
|
49.4%
|
0.318
|
87.7%
|
Ross - R
|
(5-7)
|
(10/18)
|
(4/18)
|
1.29
|
4.41
|
4.09
|
4.31
|
8.12
|
3.53
|
1.24
|
0.237
|
39.1%
|
19.5%
|
43.5%
|
0.276
|
71.8%
|
Edge – LAD
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
xFIP
|
Rank
|
SIERA
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
LAD
|
20
|
20
|
28
|
17
|
62.2%
|
74.3%
|
14
|
1.31
|
15
|
3.88
|
14
|
4.00
|
13
|
3.68
|
12
|
1.6
|
20
|
SD
|
16
|
17
|
26
|
8
|
76.5%
|
71.7%
|
21
|
1.21
|
7
|
3.63
|
10
|
3.58
|
4
|
3.27
|
3
|
4.4
|
4
|
Edge – SD
Offenses
Edge – LAD big
Conclusion: Looking at the two offenses, this is a mismatch. The dodgers have a top tier offense, while the Padres definitely qualify as offensively challenges.
As for the two starting pitchers, Ross Stripling was a spot starter, but has emerged an an excellent starting pitcher. He’s thrown 7 qulity start to just 2 poor ones in his 13 starts. His WHIP, ERA and ERA metrics are all outstanding. Stripling has a great K rate, a very low walk rate, and doesn’t give up HRs or a lot of hard contact. However he rarely goes more than 6 innings, but for those 6 he’s usually great.
Tyson Ross has pitched surprisingly well after finally returning from injuries that cost him most of the 2016 season and a significant part of the 2017 season as well. Ross has delivered 10to just 4 bad ones, in his 17 outings, but 2 were his last two starts, where he got shelled v PITT and at ARIZ. He has an OK WHIP, but his ERA and ERA metrics are high. Rose is striking out about 8 per 9, anfd his walks are high.
Pick – LAD 1st 5 RL (-144 for 2 units)