Hoping to bounce back after a disgusting 9th inning loss in the Astros game yesterday. Feel free to share your thoughts and BOL everyone! I'm currently 50-41-4 on my forum posted MLB plays this season.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Miami Marlins
My Pick: Milwaukee Brewers/Miami Marlins Over 8 (-105) - W
Dan Straily will be taking the mound for Miami and he owns a 4.55 ERA overall (5.52 at home). His home ERA sits almost 2 whole runs higher than his road ERA and he's allowed at least 2 ER in each of his last six starts. At home this year he's given up 3, 3, 3, 4, 2, and 4 ER in each outing. Today he faces a Brewers team that owns a team batting average of .249 (10th in the league) with an OPS of .721 (13th in the league) on the road this season. Of the six home games Straily has started in this year, teams have reached or surpassed 4 runs in five of them. Going back into last year I can see he's 16-3-1 Over/Under during his previous twenty at home (that's almost every home game since becoming a Marlin). It's pretty safe to assume if you've been taking Unders in home games where Straily has started in Miami - you've lost quite a bit. He pitches a .329 wOBA versus left-handed batters and a .376 wOBA versus right-handed batters inside Marlins Park and projected starters for Milwaukee collectively bat a .412 wOBA and a .349 ISO in 50 plate appearances against him (they have 4 homers in those appearances). The Brewers are now 4-1-1 Over/Under their last six away games, and they've put up at least 3 runs in six of their last seven on the road. With how Straily has been pitching 3 would seem pretty obtainable while he's out there. Looking at previous games these two have played inside Marlins Park I see the Brewers have scored 4+ runs in five of their last seven - even reaching double digit numbers in three of those. If there were a chance of reaching double-digits again then today might be it considering they get to play the pitcher with the highest home ERA of all healthy starters in Miami. Offensive run support for Freddy Peralta hasn't been too bad, either. He's only started six games for Milwaukee, but is 5-1 SU with the Brewers scoring 5+ runs in four of those. Considering how bad Straily is at home plus the fact that Miami enters this game with a bullpen owning a 4.94 ERA (27th in the league), I would think 5 seems like a reasonable floor for the Brewers again tonight. In the two games these two have played during the current series, Miami's bullpen has already given up 4 ER..
On the other side it'll be Freddy Peralta pitching for Milwaukee and he owns a 2.14 ERA overall (3.05 on the road). His home ERA sits almost 3 whole runs lower than his road ERA and he's allowed at least 1 ER in each of his last two starts. On the road this year he's given up 3, 0, 4, and 0 ER in each outing. His 0 ER games came against Pittsburgh in June when the team owned a batting average and OPS ranked bottom-5 in the league. The other came against Colorado back in May and was his debut appearance. Today he faces a Marlins team that's been hitting well - owning a team batting average of .294 (2nd in the league) with an OPS of .792 (8th in the league) during the month of July. Peralta has only played four road games, but is now 2-1 Over/Under his last three. Opposing teams have also managed to reach at least 3 runs against the Brewers in three of those four road games. That could be a decent floor for Miami tonight considering they've put up at least 3 runs in seven of their last eight in Marlins Park. Of the six total games Peralta has started in this year Milwaukee's best games came against Kansas City and Pittsburgh (2 or fewer ER). The teams worst games came against Atlanta, Cincinnati, Minnesota, and Colorado (3 or more ER). With how Miami has been hitting (since last month) I would expect we get more from them than the Royals or Pirates. Looking at previous games these two have played inside Marlins Park I see the Marlins have scored at least 3 runs in eight of their last ten - reaching at least 4 most of the time. Peralta gave up 3 to the Reds in his last road game and his matchup today won't be much easier. We've seen Miami score 4 runs in each game during this series - against Chase Anderson (much better road ERA than Peralta, but bullpen gave up runs) and Jhoulys Chacin (very similar road ERA to Peralta). Offensive run support for Dan Straily somewhat supports a 3 run floor for Miami. The Marlins have scored 3+ runs in four of his last six starts and thirteen of his last fourteen at home. Milwaukee enters this game with a bullpen owning a 3.18 ERA (6th in the league). That same bullpen has given up 8 ER in their last 4 games. I'd have to give Miami a floor of 3 tonight..