For what it's worth, we finally got back on track, at least for a day. We made 8 bets and cashed 6 of them, and picked up over 5.5 units. We still need a few more days like that, but it’s a start. We’re still updating our record. We should be up to date by tomorrow.
Yesterday, the Cubs let us down, blowing a 6-1 lead going into the bottom of the 7th. Let’s hear it for Cubs reliever Pedro Strop who managed to give up 4 its, including a HR, and 3 walks in 0.2 innings earning both a blown save and a loss.
The Dodgers RL was our other loser. LA blew several leads against the pathetic Mets, including a 7-4 lead, before finally pulling out an 8-7 win with the help of 7 HRs.
On to today!
LAA @ KC
SP 2018
|
W-L
|
QS
|
4 ER
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
GB%
|
BAA
|
HC
|
SC
|
Skaggs L
|
(6-4)
|
(7/14)
|
(2/14)
|
1.23
|
2.81
|
3.48
|
3.53
|
9.68
|
2.70
|
0.90
|
0.313
|
82.4%
|
47.5%
|
0.243
|
36.5%
|
12.3%
|
Keller - R
|
(0-1)
|
(1/4)
|
(0/4)
|
1.66
|
3.38
|
4.94
|
5.28
|
5.30
|
4.34
|
0.00
|
0.361
|
78.1%
|
50.0%
|
0.306
|
44.3%
|
14.8%
|
Tyler Skaggs is pitching very well. He’s 6-4 with 7 quality starts, and 2 really bad ones, in which he gave up 14 hits, 7 walks, and 11 runs in 9.1 innings. Overall, Skaggs has an OK 1.23 WHIP, and an excellent 2.81 ERA. However, if we eliminate those 2 bad outings, Skaggs has a 1.09 WHIP and a 1.78 ERA over his other 12 starts. His advance ERA metrics, a 3.38 xFIP and a 3.53 SIERA, are about half a run higher than his ERA, but still very good . Skaggs is striking out over a batter per inning, with a solid 47.5% GB rate and his walk rate is acceptable.
Brad Keller is a reliever, who has now made 4 starts, after making 21 relief appearances. Keller’ is 0-1, but does have 1 quality start, and hasn’t given up more than 3 runs in any. However, he’s averaging just 4.2 innings per starts, and even in his one quality start, he gave up 9 hits and 3 walks over 6 innings. It was a miracle that he only gave up 3 runs! While his 3.38 ERA looks good, Keller’s 1.66 WHIP, 4.94 xFIP and 5.28 SIERA tell a totally different strory. His K rate is pathetic, his walk rate is exorbitant, his 3/2 K/BB ratio leaves a lot to be desired, and his 44.2% hard contact rate would be the 3rd worst in the league, if he had enough innings to qualify.
Edge – LAA
Bullpens
The Angels bullpen isn’t very good, yet they are significantly better than the Royals pen. That should tell you how bad the Royals pen really is.
Edge – LAA
Offenses
The Angels offense is well above average, while the anemic Royals have arguable the worst offense in baseball.
Edge – LAA
Conclusion: I still can’t figure how the Royals took even one game from the Astros this weekend. They are that bad. The have an awful offense, and a wretched bullpen. As for the two starting pitchers, I see an awful lot of red flags with Brad Keller, the lousy WHIP, lousy metrics, pathetic K rate, high walk rate and very high hard contact rate. I also see a lot of good things from Tyler Skaggs. The Royals will surprise some teams once in a while, like they did at HTN Friday night, but I sure wouldn’t be putting money on them. Everything here points to LA, so I’m willing to risk a RL wager.
Pick – LAA RL (-105 for 2 units)
NYY @ PHIL
Starting Pitchers
SP 2018
|
W-L
|
QS
|
4 ER
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
GB%
|
BAA
|
HC
|
SC
|
Loaisiga – R
|
(0-0)
|
(0/2)
|
(0/2)
|
1.73
|
3.12
|
3.44
|
4.37
|
10.38
|
6.23
|
0.00
|
0.409
|
80.0%
|
54.5%
|
0.281
|
45.5%
|
9.1%
|
Velasquez – R
|
(5-7)
|
(7/15)*
|
(5/15)
|
1.28
|
4.82
|
3.62
|
3.50
|
10.87
|
3.25
|
1.34
|
0.308
|
65.8%
|
38.8%
|
0.239
|
32.9%
|
16.4%
|
The numbers for Jonathan Loaisiga are still pretty meaningless. They are based on just 2 starts. Loaisiga’s 1st start v TB produced 5 shutout innings with 3 hits, 6 Ks and 4 walks. The 2nd start v SEA was nowhere near as good. Loaisiga gave up 6 hits and 3 runs over 3.2 innings with 4 Ks and 2 walks. In a combined 8.2 innings, that’s 9 hits, 6 walks, 10 K and 3 earned runs. His 3.12 ERA looks very good, as does the 10 Ks and 54.6% GB rate. However the 1.73 WHIP is alarming, and the 6 walks are troubling. Loaisiga’s 45.5% would tie for the second higst in the league, if he had enough innings to qualify, and his 9.1% soft contact rate would be the lowest. It sure looks to me like Loaisiga’s been damned lucky he hasn’t given up more runs, and lucks tends to even out.
Vince Velasquez is only 5-7, but he’s delivered 7 quality starts, and missed an 8th by just 1 out. 4 of them, and the near miss were all in his last 9 starts. Velasquez has given up more than 4 earned run 5 rimes this season, leaving him with a decent 1.28 WHIP and a high 4.82 ERA. However, his advanced ERA metrics, a 3.62 xFIP, and a 3.50 SIERA, are more than a full run lower than his bloated ERA. To a certain extent, Velasquez’s WHIP and ERA are both exaggerated because of one horrible outing, In which he gave up 9 hits and 10 runs in 3.2 innings against the Brewers. Absent that one awful start, Velasquez would have a solid 1.20 WHIP and 3.87 ERA. Velazquez has an excellent K rate, and while his walk rate is high, it’s nowhere near as high as Loaisiga’s. His hard contact arate is 12.6% lower than Loaisiga’s and his soft contact rate is 8/3% higher.
Edge – PHIL
Bullpens
Edge – NYY
Offenses
Edge – NYY
Conclusion: The Yankees have the better offense and the better bullpen. Of course that didn’t do them much good in TB. I don’t think they have the best pitcher. I think that is Velasquez.
Pick – PGIL 1st 5 ML (+125 for 1 unit)
WASH @ TB
Starting pitchers
SP 2018
|
W-L
|
QS
|
4 ER
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
GB%
|
BAA
|
HC
|
SC
|
Gonzalez - L
|
(6-4)
|
(6/15)
|
(3/15)
|
1.35
|
3.08
|
3.87
|
4.12
|
8.50
|
3.61
|
0.85
|
0.300
|
80.7%
|
50.4%
|
0.244
|
31.1%
|
16.1%
|
Snell – L
|
(9-4)
|
(11/16)
|
(3/16)
|
1.06
|
2.48
|
3.68
|
3.73
|
9.83
|
3.43
|
1.05
|
0.235
|
85.3%
|
40.4%
|
0.188
|
34.6%
|
19.4%
|
Gio Gonzalez is 6-4 with only 6 quality starts, and he has given up more than 3 runs just twice, but both were in his last 3 starts. His WHIP’s an elevated 1.35 mostly because of his high walk rate. However his ERA is a very goodb 3.08. His advanced ERA metrics, a 3.87 xFIP and 4.12 SIERA are almost a full run higher than his ERA, again mostly because of the walks, but they are still decent. Gonzalez is striking out a little less than a a batter per inning, but also generating a 50.4% GB rate, but the walks are still an issue. Another concern is Gonzalez’s decreasing velocity over the past few seasons. From 2010 through 2015 Gonzalez’s average FB was 93 mph, but it dropped to 92 mph in 2016 and then to 90 mph last season and so far this season. Gonzalez gets good mix out of his four pitches, (four-seam, sinker, changeup, and curveball). His pitch mix is strong enough to keep him going for a while longer, even with the slight reduction in his velocity.
The only real edges Gonzalez has are a slightly better HR rate, a 3.5% lower hard contact rate, and a 10% higher GB rate. Every other edge goes to Snell.
Blake Snell has been on an incredible roll this season. It appears that he is finally be tapping into that enormous potential that we’ve all seen flashes of. Snell is 9-4 with 11 quality starts to only 3 poor ones, and he missed 2 more by just 1 out. His WHIP is a superb 1.06, and his ERA is an excellent 2.48. Snell ‘s advanced ERA metrics are over a fun higher than his stellar ERA, but still quite good, He is striking out over a batter per inning). and has significantly reduced his walks.
The only edges Gonzalez has is a slightly better HR rate, a 3.5% lower hard contact rate and a 10% higher GB rate. Every other edge goes to Snell.
Edge – TB
Bullpens
Edge – WASH
Offenses
These are two mediocre offenses
Edge – None
Conclusion: I trust Blake Snell a hell of a lot more than I trust Gio Gonzalez (at least for 5 innings.
Pick – TB 1st 5 RL (+120 for 2 units)
CLEV @ STL
Starting Pitchers
SP 2018
|
W-L
|
QS
|
4 ER
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
GB%
|
BAA
|
HC
|
SC
|
Clevinger - R
|
(6-2)
|
(10/15)
|
(4/15)
|
1.16
|
3.00
|
3.89
|
4.02
|
8.18
|
2.91
|
0.64
|
0.285
|
77.2%
|
45.1%
|
0.228
|
31.9%
|
16.5%
|
Gant – R
|
(0-2)
|
(0/3)
|
(1/3)
|
1.20
|
6.00
|
2.99
|
3.10
|
11.40
|
2.40
|
0.6
|
0.325
|
39.8%
|
42.5%
|
0.233
|
51.2%
|
14.6%
|
In this rare instance, I don’t believe some of the numbers for Jon Gant. They arebased on 3 spot starts. Clevinger has 10 quality starts. That;s two out of every 3. He has 4 poor starts. Gant has 1 poor start and no quality starts. The WHIPs look evem and the metrics all lean to Gant??? Why? Probably because of a 39.8% strand rate that is absurdly low. However Gant’s giving up a 51.2% hard contact rate! That will get him killed.
I don;’t care what the numbers say, my eyes say…
Edge – CLEV
Bullpens
Here’s another pen as bd as CLEV’s
Edge – None
Offenses
Edge Clev
Pick – CLEV ML (-130 for 2 units_ and RL (+122 for 2 units)
TOR @ HTN
Starting Pitchers
SP 2018
|
W-L
|
QS
|
4 ER
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
GB%
|
BAA
|
HC
|
SC
|
Happ – L
|
(9-3)
|
(7/15
|
(5/15)
|
1.03
|
3.56
|
3.40
|
3.32
|
10.09
|
2.47
|
1.19
|
0.254
|
72.3%
|
46.6%
|
0.204
|
31.1%
|
20.9%
|
Verlander - R
|
(9-2)
|
(15/16)
|
(0/16)
|
0.78
|
1.60
|
3.53
|
2.99
|
10.93
|
1.77
|
0.76
|
0.220
|
88.9%
|
28.9%
|
0.163
|
26.0%
|
21.6%
|
Bullpens
Edge – HTN
Offenses
Edge – HTN
Pick - HTN ML (-135 for 2 units?)