For what it's worth, it looed like we were in good shape heading g into the late games. The only thing that could have killed us was if BOS and HTN both lost outright. All we needed was for just one of these two heavy favorites to win, to lock in a profit. The bastards both lost! We’ll update records tomorrow
Today’s another day, and we have almost a full slate of games to choose from.
STL @ PHIL
Starting Pitchers
In his 14 starts, Michael Wacha is 8-2, and has delivered 7 quality starts, with just 2 in which he gave up 4 or more earned runs, his first and his last start. His WHIP is a solid 1.19, with a good 3.24 ERA, and if we eliminate his last start, in which he gave up 7 hits, 4 walks and 8 earned runs over 4 innings, Wacha would have a 1.11 WHIP and a 2.47 ERA . His advanced ERA metrics are a little higher, but still very good,. Wacha is limiting his walks and HRs. He has an excellent 6.6% K/BB ratio, and , and opponents are only hitting .228 against him. The only red flags here are a low K rate, and a high 43% hard contact rate.
In his 13 starts, Jake Arrieta is 5-5, with 6 quality starts, and 5 in which he’s given up at least 4 earned runs, including his last 3 outings. His WHIP is still a decent 1.25 and his ERA is a still good 3,33, but hi advanced ERA metrics are significantly higher. Like Wacha, his K rate is poor, but he is generating a very good 56.3% GB rate to compensate. However he walks almost 3 times as as many batters, and has a much weaker 2.04% K/BB ratio.
At this stage in their respective careers, I lean to Wacha as the better pitcher.
Edge – STL
Bullpens
The Phillies have a mediocre bullpen, but the Cards pen is even worse. It’s a glaring weakness on this Cards team, and it cost them another game two nights ago, but the Phis pen gave one right back last night. I guest both pens suck and neither should be trusted..
\Edge –NONE
Offenses
Team
|
R PG
|
Rank
|
Off
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
STL
|
4.27
|
18
|
-15.9
|
16
|
95
|
15
|
0.309
|
19
|
0.153
|
21
|
PHIL
|
4.31
|
17
|
-22.0
|
20
|
92
|
19
|
0.307
|
22
|
0.155
|
20
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Both offenses are mediocre, and very evenly matched
Edge – None
Conclusion: The offenses are mediocre and very even. The Bullpens are both lousy. This pick cpomes down to Wacha or Arrieta. I’ll take Arrieta.
Pick – STL 1st 5 ML (-101 for 1 unit)
CHI WS @ CLEV
Starting Pitchers
Reynaldo Lopez has pitched fairly well for the White Sox. He’s only 2-4, but with 10 Quality starts, to just 3 in which he;s given up 4 or more earned runs. His 1.24 WHIP and 3.35 ERA both look very good, but his ERA metrics are a huge red flag. They are about a full run higher than his ERA. Lopex throws hard, but hois K rate isn’t very impressive, and his walk rate is high, for a mediocre 1.68% K/BB ratio,
Corey Kluber finally had a bad outing. After 14 straight quality starts, Kluber gave up 4 runs on 4 hits, including 2 HRs. Kluber is 10-3 with the 14 quality starts. He has a superb 0.84 WHIP, 2.24 ERA. His advanced ERA metrics are also very good. Kluber is still getting Ks, hardly walking anyone, and opposing batters are hitting just .202 against him. With thw 2 HR’s he gave up last time, his HRs are a little high, but that’s it. Kluber’s elite, and I expect him to bounced back here.
Edge – CLEV
Bullpens
Both bullpens suck
Edge – None
Offenses
Edge – CLEV big
Conclusion: The Indians have the much better offense, and the better starting pitcher. Both bullpen suck.
Pick – CLEV 1st 5 RL (-190 for 2 units) and full game RL (-150 for 2 units)
LAD @ CHI C
Starting Pitchers
Both of these guys have excellent W-l records, a great ratio of quality starts v 4+ earned runs allowed starts, and great WHIP and ERA’s. The first difference is in the advanced ERA metrics. Stripling’s are all in the 2s, while Lester;s are all in the 4s. Stripling has a much better K rate and a much lower walk rate, resulting in a much better K/BB ratio. Stripling is foing all this with a .299 BABIP while Lester’s been the beneficiary of a luck driven .233 BABIP. The signs say that Lester is due for regression.
Edge – LAD
Bullpens
The difference between these two bullpens is somewhat exaggerated, because the Dodgers got off to an awful start. They’ve been much better recently.
Edge – CHI C
Offenses
This is actually very close, which is surprising considering what a poor start the Dodgers got off to.
Edge – CHI Close
Conclusion: The offenses are very close, both can put up runs. The bullpens are actually closer than the stats would suggest, and as for the two starting pitchers, They both look very good on paper, but with Lester, there are warning signs that point to major regression. Stripling’s been unbelievably good, and his metrics don’t show the same warning signs, but I’m still finding it hard to believe. However there are enough warning signs that I’ll fade Lester here. I got LA at +1-4 this morning so took them for a small amount.
Pick – LAD ML (+104 for 1 unit)
SEA @ NYY
“Kimg Felix” Hernandez has stiuggled this season. He’s 6-6 in his 15 starts, and he does have 6 quality starts and missed a 7th by just 1 out. However he also has 6 starts in which he’s given up at least 4 earned runs. The result is n elevated 1.38 WHIP, and a very high 5.44 ERA. His advanced ERA metrics, and 4.68 FUO, a 4.49 xFIP and a 4.48 SIERA, are a little better than his ugly ERA, but still pretty bad. His 7.47 K/9 is down from his career 8.40 mark, and his 3.31 BB/9 is up from his career 2.62 mark, as is his 1.28 HR/9, up from his career 0.81 mark. “King Felix” used to be elite, one of the best pitchers in baseball. That’s no longer the case. He’s barely getting by.
The numbers for Loaisiga are meaningless. They are based on 1 start – 5 shutout innings with 3 hits, 6 Ks and w walks. /the walks were troubling but everything else looked good, but thwo the hell knows.
Edge - ??? Who knows? However it sure aint Hernandez
Bullpens
Edge – NYY
Offenses
Edge – NYY
Conclusion: The \Yankes have the better offense and the better bullpen. My best guess, the Yanks beat up on Hernandez. The Mariner could get after Loaisiga, but if so the Yanks win a slugfest.
Pick – NYY RL (-101 for 2 units)
BALT @ WASH
Starting Pitchers
Andrew Cashner has started 13 games for the woeful Orioles. He’s only 2-8, but he has delivered 7 quality starts. Cashner has a lousy 1.69 WHIP. He also has 4 starts in which he’s given up over 4 earned runs for a very poor 4.98 ERA. Cashner’s advanced ERA metrics, a a 5.11 FIP, 4.73 xFIP and a 4.46 SIERA are totally consistent with that very high ERA. Cashner’s 7.47 K/9 rate is below league average, but his 4.46 BB/9 is over a walk higher than his career 3.30 number. That’s way too high, as is his 1.28 HR/9 rate, the highest of his career. As a pitcher who pitches to contact, Cashner needs good luck on ball in play. Last season , he got some, with a 266 BABIP that was 27 point lower than his career .293. This season, he’s been the recipient of some bad luck, with a BABIP of .346. The bottom line is that Cashner is giving up too many hits, too many walks, and too many HRs to consistently get by.
Gio Gonzalez is 6-3 with 6 quality starts in his 13 outings, but he has given up more than 3 runs just twice , and in 10 of his starts it was 2 earned runs or less. His WHIP’s an elevated 1.315 mostly because of his 34 walks. However his ERA is a superb 3.01. His advanced ERA metrics, a 3.56 FIP, a 3.90 xFIP and 4.14 SIERA are over a run higher than his ERA, mostly because of the walks, but they are still decent. Gonzalez is striking out a better per inning, and generating a 49.8% GB rate, but the walks could become problematic. Another concern is Gonzalez’s decreasing velocity over the past few seasons. From 2010 through 2015 Gonzalez’s average FB was 93 mph, but it dropped to 92 mph in 2016 and then to 90 mph last season and so far this season. That loss of velocity hasn’t seemed to affect his performance much, so far this season or last season. Gonzalez tied for the major league lead in qua;lity starts last season with 20. He gets good mix out of his four pitches, (four-seam, sinker, changeup, and curveball). His pitch mix is strong enough to keep him going for a while longer, even with the slight reduction in his velocity.
Edge – WASH
Bullpens
Edge – WASH and this doesn’t account for WASH’s pick up of Herrera from TB
Offenses
Edge – WASH
Conclusion: Everywhere you look WASH has the edge. They have the better offense, the better bullpen and the better starting pitcher
Pick – WASH 1st 5 RL (-136 for 2 units) and RL (-105 for 1 unit)
BOS @ MINN
Starting Pitchers
David Price had two excellent starts (14 IP, 7 hits, 0 runs, 10 Ks and 3 walks). He followed that up with 6 starts in which he gave up at least 4 earned runs in 4 of them. Over that stretch, Price had a 2-4 record, with a 1.76 WHIP, a 7.31 ERA, 28 Ks and 16 walks in 28.1 IP. He followed that up with 5 quality starts, in his last 8 outings. He gave up 3as many as 3 runs just once, and 2 or less in 7 of the 8. His WHIP sits at 1.20, with a 3.76 ERA. Hisadvanced ERA metrics, a 3.45 FIP, a 4.14 xFIP and a 4.05 SIERA, have bee steadily coming down. His 8.74 K/9 is solid, but his 3.32 BB/9 is considerably higher than his career 2.34. Sti;ll Price is looking better with each start.
Lance Lynn has struggled enormously in his first season, with the Twins. He’s 4-5 in his 13 starts, with a miserable 1.60 WHIP and 4.98 ERA. However Lynn has now tossed 6 quality starts, including his last 5 outings, but also has 5 in which he’s given up at least 4 earned runs, and in 4 of which he gave up 5 or more. Lynn is striking a batter per inning, but has walked 41 for a by far career worst 5.37 BB/9 as opposed to a career 3.50 mark.
Edge – BOS
Bullpens
Edge – BOS Big
Offenses
Edge – BOS big
Conclusion: I still can’t figure out how BOS lost last night. Bpoth starting pitchers were great, butBOS had the better bullpen and offense by a wide margin. They still do. Lance Lynn has looked a lot better recently, but so has David Price. I find Price’s turnaround more believable. I bet this one this morning before the price went up.
Pick – 1st 5 Under 4.4 (+100 for 1 unit) and MBOSL (-135 for 2 units)
TB @ HTN
Starting Pitchers
Following surgery to remove loose bodies in his throwing elbow, Nathan Eovaldi has made 4 starts. He’s 1-2 with 1 quality start, and two in which he’s given up at leas 4 earned runs. That leaves him with a very 0.81 WHIP. but a 4.63 ERA. His advanced ERA metrics are a little lower than his ERA. Eovalsi not getting Ks, but he’s not walking many either. However, he has given up 4 HRs, which account s for the high ERA.
Is Evaldi anywhere near that good? Well, he hasn’t had a lot of success despite his plus fastball velocity. Over his career, Eovaldi is just 39-46, with a 1.37 WHIP and a 4.18 ERA. Heis history is one of mediocrity, primarily because he lacks the secondary pitches to complement his fastball. They’re all below average. He tried bringing back his cutter, which is better than his horrid curve, but TJ surgery derailed that experiment. If he’s healthy, he’s an average starting pitcher with a great fastball and not much else to go with it.
Charlie Morton was off to a great start for the Astros. He’s started 14 games, posting an 8-1 record with 9 quality starts. He’s got a solid 1.14 WHIP and 2.94 ERA. His advanced ERA metrics, 3.78 FIP, a 3.17 xFIP and 3.27 SIERA, are are a little higher than, but consistent with his excellent ERA, and very good. This season Morton is generating a very good 11.9% swinging strike rate, and an 11.43 K/9 rate, while still generating a great 51.3% GB rate. However, his 84.3% strand rate is still way too high and should regress closer to his career 69.1% rate. All that said, there’s still a little cause for concern. Morton totally fell apart 2 starts ago, giving up just 1 hit, but walking 6 and hitting 4 more batters in just 3.2 innings, and he followed that up woth an 8 hit 5 run outing over 7.1 innings. It’s his worst stretch of the season.
Edge - HTN
Bullpens
The Rqys pen has been a lot better than expected, but the Astros have one of the best pens oin baseball.
Edge – HTN
Offenses
The Rays have an above average offense, but the Astros, along with the Yankees and Red Sox have one of the best offenses in the league.
Edge – HTN
Conclusion: The Astros should have every edge here. They have the better offense, the better bullpen, and they have the somewhat better starting pitcher with Charlie Morton. HTN should get back on the winning track tonight.
Pick – HTN RL (-120 for 2 units)
One more Quickie
NTM Collcha1Seth Lugo v Chad Bettis
Pick - NYM 1st 5 ML (-105 for 2 units) and fulkk game ML (+101 for 2 units)