For what it's worth, it certainly looked like we were headed for a sweep yesterday. That is, until another supposedly elite bullpen, the Yankee pen, inexplicably crapped all over themselves.
We posted a total of five plays and won four of them for a +2.22 units. For the season, that left our record at 161-117, for a +1.57 units.
We cashed two wagers on the Astros (1st 5 RL and full game RL). Justin Verlander tossed another quality start (6 IP, 3 hits, 1 runs and 9 Ks), while the Astros took their sweet time, not getting to Jeff Samardzija until the bottom of the 5th for a 2-run HR that gave them a 3-1 lead. in a game that they eventually won 4-1.
We cashed a wager on the Padres 1st 5 ML, as a nicely priced (+134) dog. Tyson Ross was great (6.2 IP, 5 hits, 1 run and 9 Ks). WASH’s Erick Fedde kept pace until the 5th when the Padres finally broke through for a single run and a 1-0 lead after 5. They added 2 more runs in the 5th in a 3-1 Padres win.
Finally, we cashed a wager on the Marlins/Mets 1st 5 total going under 4.
Our only loser was the aforementioned Yankees ML. It was as embarrassing and disgraceful a performance as we’ve ever had the misfortune to watch. The 31-15 Yankees are hitting HRs at a record pace. They hit 4 more last night to match a big league record with 21 in a 5-game stretch, but that still wasn't enough to beat the woeful 20-31 (9-17 at home) last-place Texas Rangers. The Rangers woo consecutive home series for the first time this season.
The Yankees jumped on Texas starter Doug Fister for 3 runs in the 1st, opening up a 4-0 lead in the 3rd. NY starter CC Sabathia squandered that early lead, giving 5 runs in the 4th and the Yankees trailed 5-4. In the 5th NY erupted for 6 runs to take a seemingly commanding 10-5 lead. Sabatia gave up another 2 in the bottom of the inning . He gave up a total of 6 hits, 3 walks and 7 runs in just 4.1 innings. That cane as no surprise, but Jonathan Holder came in to stop the bleeding, and NY still led 10-7 after 5, when the Yanks put the game in the hands of their “elite pen”.
The fateful 6th inning began with Chasen Shreve taking over for Holder. Why? Holder didn’t give up a run, and that’s better than any other Yankee pitcher did last night. It makes me wonder about manager Aaron Boone. Joe Girardi, he ain;t. Shreve lasted all of a third of an inning, promptly giving up 2 singles sandwiched around a strikeout, and departed with men on 1st and 2nd. In came David Robertson, who promptly walked the first 2 batters he faced, forcing in a run. After getting a strikeout for the second out, a bases loaded double brought in 3 more runs, and completed the collapse of the Yankees vaunted bullpen with a line of 4.2 IP, 5 hits, 2 walks, and 5 runs). The walks were killers. It absolutely never should have happened.
Moving on to today’s games. There’s not much we like. Here’s the first one.
HTN @ CLEV
Starting Pitchers
SP 2018
|
W-L
|
QS
|
4+ ER
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
GB%
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Morton – R
|
(6-0)
|
(7/9)
|
(1/9)
|
0.93
|
1.94
|
2.70
|
2.86
|
11.32
|
2.91
|
1.13
|
0.173
|
55.6%
|
0.225
|
92.9%
|
Clevinger – R
|
(3-1)
|
(6/9)
|
(2/9)
|
1.16
|
2.87
|
3.81
|
4.03
|
7.54
|
2.72
|
0.45
|
0.235
|
47.6%
|
0.293
|
77.2%
|
Charlie Morton is off to another fine start for the Astros. He’s started 9 games, posting a 6-0 record with 7 quality starts, including his last two. He’s given up 34 hits and 12 earned runs over 55.2 innings with 70 Ks and 18 walks. That certainly explains his 0.93 WHIP and 1.94 ERA. His advanced ERA metrics, a 2.70 xFIP and 2.96 SIERA, while almost a run higher than his ERA, are still outstanding. This season Morton is generating a career high 13.3% swinging strike rate, and an 11.32 K/9 rate, while still generating 55.6% GB rate However, his 92.9% strand rate is still way too high and should regress, but that’s it as far as negatives go.
It was tough for me to wrap my head around Chalie Morton as an elite starting pitcher last season. I had visions of Morton’s Pirate days dancing in my head. Back them he was almost an auto-fade for me. However, Morton completely transformed his arsenal, and won 14 regular season games and a World Series with the Astros . His velocity jumped from the 92-94 mph of his Pirate days to 96 mph last season, and he worked more in the upper part of the zone, sacrificing GBs for more swings and misses. Morton generated a 10.9% swinging strike rate in 2017, and his K/9 jumped from 6.43 with the Pirates in 2015 to 10.00 last season. He also added a cutter to use against left-handed hitters.
Mike Clevinger has started nine games after finally earning a full time spot in the Indians’ starting rotation this season. Clevinger is 3-1 with 6 quality starts to his name. He’s given up 51 hits and 18 walks in his 59.2 innings for a solid 1.16 WHIP. Clevinger has allowed more than 3 earned runs (4) just twice producing an excellent 2.87 ERA. That ERA might be a little deceptive in that his advanced ERA metrics, a 3.81 xFIP and a 4.03 SIERA, are around a run higher than that stellar ERA. His pedestrian 7.54 K/9 rate and slightly elevated 2.72 BB/9 could explain some of the discrepancy.
Last season, Clevinger started 21 games (114 IP), posting an 11-4 record as a starter, with a 1.21 WHIP and a 2.84 ERA , with a 9.95 K/9 rate , but a high 4.26 BB/9 rate. That was mostly the result of a 4-seam FB that fell in the zone just under 50% of the time last season and held an 18.6% walk rate on its own. Clevinger features three secondary pitches, a slider, curve, and changeup, that all registered whiff rates above 19.0% last season.
Edge - HTN
Bullpens
Not very long ago the Indians had an elite ullpen. Now it’s become a big liability. For the most part, the Astros still have a top notch bullpen
Edge – HTN big
Offenses
Team
|
R PG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
HTN
|
4.72
|
8
|
17.5
|
4
|
106
|
6
|
0.324
|
6
|
0.155
|
20
|
CLEV
|
4.79
|
6
|
1.6
|
9
|
101
|
12
|
0.324
|
6
|
0.182
|
3
|
The two teams both possess top 10 offenses, but they appear to be very evenly matched. The Indians score slightly more (0.05) runs per game and have better isolated poser numbers, while the Astros have a better Offensire Runs Above average number and weighted Runs Created number.
Edge – None
Conclusion: The two offenses are very even. The two bullpens are not. The Astros have the much better bullpen. The Astros also have an elite Charlie Morton starting tonght. Mike Clevinger has become a quality starting pitcher, but he’s not in the elite category, and he’s just not as good as Morton. We’ll ride the Astros once more.
Pick – HTN ML (-125 for 1 unit) AND 1st 5 Under 4 -115 for 1 unit)
BOS @ TB
BOS @ TB
Starting Pitchers
SP 2018
|
W-L
|
QS
|
4+ ER
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
GB%
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Porcello – R
|
(6-1)
|
(7/10)
|
(2/10)
|
1.05
|
3.39
|
3.32
|
3.29
|
8.91
|
1.55
|
0.71
|
0.230
|
48.3%
|
0.290
|
73.0%
|
Snell – L
|
(531)
|
(7/10)
|
(2/19)
|
1.04
|
3.07
|
3.75
|
3.68
|
9.36
|
2.91
|
1.23
|
0.196
|
37.1%
|
0.234
|
82.3%
|
Rick Porcello has started 10 games for the Red Sox. He is 6-1 with 7 quality starts. Porcello has given up 56 hits and 11 walks in his 63/2 innings for a stellar 1.05 WHIP. He has given up 5 earned runs twice in his last three outings, but in his other eight starts it was 3 or less, and in half of those it was 1 or 0 earned runs. The result is an excellent 3.39 ERA, and his advanced ERA metrics, a 3.32 xFIP and a 3.29 SIERA, are totally consistent with that ERA. Porcello is striking out almost a batter per inning (63), with an excellent 631/11 K/BB ratio and he isn’t giving up the long ball (5 HRs).
Coming off a Cy Young winning season, Porcello struggled last season, finishing 11-17 with a 1.40 WHIP and a 4.65 ERA. The main culprit was a whopping career high 38 HRs. It seemed like every mistake Porcello made got knocked out of the park. Porcello isn’t as bad as he looked last season, and he’s not as good as he looked in his Cy Young 2016 season, but he is a quality starting pitcher.
For the most part, Blake Snell has been on an incredible roll this season. It appears that he may finally be tapping into that enormous potential that we’ve all seen flashes of. Snell has started 10 games. He’s 5-3 with 76 quality starts, and he missed an 8th by just 1 out. Snell have given up 42 hits and 19 walks in his 58.2 innings for a superb 1.04 WHIP. Snell did give up 5 earned runs in two of his starts, but 2 or less runs in the other eight leaving him with an excellent 3.07 ERA. His advanced ERA metrics, a 3.75 xFIP and a 3.68 SIERA are a little higher but still consistent with his ERA. Snell is striking out over a batter per inning (61), but has significantly reduced his walks. His 2.91 BB/9 is the best of his career, and significantly lower than his career 4.19 mark.
Snell has been a highly touted prospect, for a few of seasons now, and with a couple of good reasons. He possesses a 94-95 mph heater, and a big curveball. When Snell first came up, he wowed everyone with his stuff However, throwing strikes was/is an issue at the big league level. Some of that is because of just how big his curveball is. A lot of vets don't always get that pitch called consistently for strikes, so it was not all that surprising to see a young Snell get squeezed. However, he also has one of the lowest rates of pitches in the zone for starters (36.7% last season, 38/4% for his career, and 39.5% this season), and his fastball is more hittable when he misses locations with it.
These are two good quality starting pitchers
Edge – None
Bullpens
Team
|
W-L
|
SV/SOO
|
SV %
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
xFIP
|
Rank
|
SIERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
HLD
|
Red Sox
|
(11-6)
|
(18/23)
|
78.3%
|
1.18
|
4
|
3.42
|
6
|
3.37
|
4
|
3.16
|
5
|
76.9%
|
9
|
32
|
Rays
|
(10-112)
|
(11/18)
|
61.1%
|
1.28
|
11
|
4.55
|
23
|
4.25
|
21
|
3.81
|
20
|
68.1%
|
26
|
30
|
The Red Sox bullpen is very good, while the Rays pen is very mediocre.
Edge – BOS
Offenses
Both teams possess solid offenses, but the Red Sox rank a little higher pretty much across the board.
Edge – BOS
Conclusion: The Red Sox have some edges here. They have the better of two potent offenses, and .the much better bullpen. That puts them in a better position to win this game late, if it’s close. As for the two starting pitchers, both are quality starting pitchers, and if they’re both on, this game could be very low scoring especially early. Porcello has to continue to keep the ball in the park, and Snell has to continue to keep his walks under control.
Picks - 1st 5 Under 4 (-130 for 1 unit) and BOS ML (-125 for 1 unit)