Here are two late night picks that I'm liking tonight. Feel free to share your thoughts and BOL everyone!
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Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers
My Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-120) - L
Los Angeles is 5-0 ATS their previous 5 matchups against Miami (3 wins came by 2+ runs)
Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS their previous 5 home matchups against the Marlins (3 wins came by 2+ runs)
Los Angeles Recent Games
7-1 ATS their previous 8 games (5 wins came by 2+ runs)
4-1 ATS their previous 5 at home (2 wins came by 2+ runs)
5-1 ATS their previous 6 at home versus NL East teams (2 wins came by 2+ runs)
Kenta Maeda (Los Angeles Pitcher)
3-1 ATS his previous 4 games
18-5 ATS his previous 23 at home
Miami Recent Games
0-5 ATS their previous 5 games (3 loses came by 2+ runs)
1-6 ATS their previous 7 on the road (4 loses came by 2+ runs)
1-4 ATS their previous 5 on the road versus NL West teams (2 loses came by 2+ runs)
Dillon Peters (Miami Pitcher)
4-6 ATS his previous 10 games
1-3 ATS his previous 4 on the road
Dillon Peters will be the starting pitcher for Miami in this one. Of his four starts this season, there is no doubting he's been much better at home (1.50 ERA) as opposed to on the road (15.95 ERA). He's allowed 4 and 9 runs in each of his road games and tonight he faces a Dodgers team that's put up 4+ runs in eight of their last 11 at home. He was one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball last season and so far this season, that trend has continued. Los Angeles sits top-10 in the league right now for runs against Lefties (27), top-5 in the league for runs at night (82), and top-10 in the league for home runs at home (13). To me, this spot doesn't look very good for Peters. Garcia did a decent job holding the Dodgers to just 1 run in his 6 innings yesterday, but Peters has only managed to make it 6 innings in two of his four games this season, while being pulled early in the other two. I can't help but think something like 4 runs should be a floor for Los Angeles here - and that's before Miami's bullpen starts getting called in.
On the other side it'll be stud Kenta Maeda taking the mound for LA. He's had 10 strikeouts in 2 of his 4 starts this season and hasn't allowed more than 2 runs in any except their last game which was on the road in San Diego (he gave up 4). Maeda hasn't played more than 5.2 innings so far this season, but with the Dodgers having a top-5 bullpen I don't think that's really an issue. Aside from Ray and Morton, Maeda should be up there among the highest strikeout pitchers on the board today. Maeda holds a nice 2.35 ERA at home this season. He'll get a Marlins team ranked bottom-3 in runs off a Righty this season (48), bottom-2 in runs on the road this season (28), and bottom-5 in runs scored over the last 7 days (20). In fact, the Marlins have only scored 3+ runs in total just once in their last four road games. They only scored 1 against Buehler in the game yesterday, and I think it's safe to say Maeda is definitely a better overall pitcher than Buehler is. Things won't get any easier for Miami today!
Maeda gets to pitch in a ballpark that favors pitchers and the projected lineup for Miami has a .292 xwOBA and a strikeout rate of 24% against right-handed pitching. Peters has allowed a .381 xwOBA to lefties and a .344 xwOBA to righties over the last two seasons. Not much value in the Dodgers ML here, but I think they can squeeze a win by 2+ runs, so I'm going Dodgers RL here.
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Washington Nationals @ San Francisco Giants
My Pick: Washington Nationals/San Francisco Giants Under 4.5 - First 5 Innings (-120) - L
San Francisco is 1-13-1 Over/Under their previous 15 matchups against Washington
San Francisco is 1-8 Over/Under their previous 9 home matchups against the Nationals
San Francisco Recent Games
1-6 Over/Under their previous 7 games
2-3 Over/Under their previous 5 at home
0-2 Over/Under their previous 2 at home versus NL East teams
Ty Blach (San Francisco Pitcher)
2-6 Over/Under his previous 8 games
4-4 Over/Under his previous 8 at home
Washington Recent Games
2-4 Over/Under their previous 6 games
0-3 Over/Under their previous 3 on the road
3-13-1 Over/Under their previous 17 on the road versus NL West teams
Tanner Roark (Washington Pitcher)
1-2 Over/Under his previous 3 on the road versus San Francisco
3-5-1 Over/Under his previous 9 games
2-5-1 Over/Under his previous 8 on the road
Tanner Roark will be starting at pitcher for Washington today. Roark has been solid so far this season, posting a 3.90 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25%. He's also played between 5-7 innings in each of his four starts, allowing 2, 1, 5, and 1 runs in those games. He's been even better in both of his road games this year allowing just 2 & 1 runs against while holding a 1.93 ERA. Today he faces a San Francisco team that ranks bottom-10 in runs scored at home this season (35), second-to-last in hits off a Righty this season (93), and has only scored 4+ runs (total) in two of their last five home games. There are 7 different San Francisco starters whom all hold .400+ wOBA against Roark in the past, but only 1 of them (McCutchen) has a HR. I do think the Giants could get some hits early on, but can't really see much of those turning into runs. At least, not until Washington's poor bullpen comes out.
On the other side it'll be Ty Blach on the mound for San Francisco. Aside from his poor game against Seattle back on April 3rd, he's been decent allowing just 2, 3, 1, and 0 runs in each of his previous four. He'll be facing a Nationals team that's been a little weak on the road lately. They're 0-3 ATS their previous three road games and have failed to score more than 3 runs (total) in that time. Granted two of those games were against the Angels, Washington still sits bottom-10 in runs scored off a Lefty this season (21) and over the last 7 days the team has an overall batting average of just .212 (bottom-5 in the league). Blach has yet to play Washington in a game, so it'll be interesting to see what happens here. Washington might be able to put up a run or two, but I just don't see huge numbers early on from them.
This ballpark is tough on both left and right hitters. Blach is probably the pitcher I would be most concerned about with his low strikeout rate, but he can at least keep the ball on the ground. I expect the first 5 innings here will finished under 4 runs..