For what it's worth, they say that “all good things must come to an end”, and yesterday saw our string of five straight profitable days end in a whimper, not a crashing thud. We cashed just one of our three posted pays for -2.41 units for the day. That brought our season record on our posted plays to 74-45, for a +16.92 units.
Our one winner was the Indians (1 unit), and it was a nail biter. We noted that since shaky opening starts both Carlos Carrasco and Kevin Gausman had both pitched very well, and that was the case again last night. The Orioles actually outhit the Indians 7-4, but Carrasco and the Indians stellar pen nursed a 2-1 lead all the way home.
Our first loser was the Braves (1 unit). While we can’t say that this result was all that shocking, we were surprised. The Reds offense came into this game with the fewest runs and HRs in the league, yet they abused a weak ATL bullpen for 7 hits and 8 runs.
Our other loser was the Astros (2 units). This was the whimper we referred to earlier, and yet, it did surprise us. If someone had told us beforehand that Cole would give us 7 innings of 4 hit, 2 run ball, with 8 Ks and just 2 walks, we’d have added another unit. We’re still trying to figure out how the Astros don’t score. They outhit the Angels 7-4l, and they had at least 1 man on base in 6 of their 9 innings. Unfortunately, in four of those 9 innings the Astros didn’t get that man on until there were already 2 out on the inning. Throw in a double play to erase another runner. It just emphasizes how important it is to get that leadoff man on. In fairness, we also need to credit Tyler Skaggs who also pitched very well. What can we say? It happens.
That was yesterday. Yesterday’s gone. Let’s move on to today's games.
MINN @ NYY
This morning I heard one of those talking heads telling us that the Twins just can’t beat the Yankees. It’s in their heads. That’s complete BS!
Starting Pitchers
Jose Berrios is off to another excellent start. He’s 2-1 with three quality starts in his four outings, including his last two. Even with one bad outing against the Mariners (6 hits, 5 runs, 4.2 IP), Berrios still has given up just 15 hits in his 27.2 innings. That combined with just 1 walk resulted in a stellar 0.58 WHIP. Other than the 5 runs he inexplicably surrendered to the Mariners on April 7, he’s been unscored on in his other three starts, resulting in a superb 1.63 ERA. His advanced ERA metrics, a 2.57 xFIP and a 2.54 SIERA, are excellent. Berrios is striking out over a batter per inning, and his 29/1 K/BB ratio is incredible.
After a horrible 2016 debut that landed him back in the minors, Jose Berrios was a different and much better pitcher last season, finishing 14-8, with a 1.23 WHIP and 3.89 ERA. He cut his walks down from 5.40 BB/9 toi 2.99, while maintaining a solid 8.61 K/9 rate. He throws a 94 mph sinker with excellent late movement. He still struggled some on the road (5.17 ERA and 12 homers allowed in 15 away starts) last season, but at 23, he looks like he's ready to become the ace everyone expected.
As for CC Sabathia, I’ll admit I’m biased. I don’t think he’s very good anymore. That opinion cost me dearly early last season, when I consistent faded him, and he kept cost ing me money. I eventually just passed on his starts. Despite last season, my opinion hasn’t changed.
At 37, veteran lefty CC Sabathia is nowhere near as good as he once was. He hasn’t really pitched all that we so far this season either
. His first 2 starts were short (5 IP 2 TOR and 4 v BALT). He gave up a combined 9 hits and 5 runs (4earned), with 7 Ks and 2 walks. Then he hit the DL with a hip injury. He returned 5 days ago, tossing 4.1 innings, giving up 4 hits and 2 runs, with 1 K and 1 walk. Overall, Sabathia’s numbers, a 1.20 WHIP and a 2.70 ERA aren’t bad, but his advanced ERA metrics, a 4.94 xFIP and a 4.62 SIERA, are about 2 full runs higher that his ERA. His 5.40 K/9 rate is the lowest of his career and his 2.03 HR/9 rate is by far the highest. That’s not a good combination. Sabathiia has yet to go deeper than 5 innings in any start and only got that deep once. With Sabathia, it seems like the Yanks have a quick hook, and pull him at the first sign of trouble.
After considering retirement, Sabathia came back for one more year. Amazingly, he’s coming off one of his strongest seasons in years. Sabathia finished last season 14-5 with a 1.27 WHIP and a 3.69 ERA, his best marks since 2012. However his advanced ERA metrics, a 4.11 xFIP and 3.45 STERA were both higher. With a BABIP of .276 and strand rate of 79% (versus career marks of .294 and 73%, respectively), it's fair to say that Sabathia got a little lucky. In fairness, it should also be noted that Sabathia has become better at generating GBs (50% v 45.9% career) and soft contact (24% v 19% career). That tells me that Sabathia has sort of adapted and learned to get the most of his diminished skills.
Edge – MINN
Bullpens
The Twins were projected to have a very mediocre bullpen (preseason rank #19), while the Yankees were supposed to have the best bullpen in baseball (preseason ran #1). So far, the Yanks have underachieved, but they have still performed better than the Twins.
Edge – NYY
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Twins
|
-1.9
|
13
|
93
|
21
|
0.312
|
17
|
0.161
|
11
|
3.8
|
2
|
9.4%
|
11
|
24.8%
|
23
|
1.8
|
20
|
Yankees
|
16.4
|
4
|
118
|
2
|
0.347
|
2
|
0.192
|
1
|
-0.3
|
17
|
11.4%
|
3
|
21.9%
|
10
|
4.0
|
7
|
The Twins are a pretty decent hitting team, but the Yanks are a truly top tier offense, and they haven’t even really hit their stride yet. The NY offence could be scary good, if the even put it together.
Conclusion: Yes, the Yankees have a dynamic offense, and a potentially dominant bullpen. The only edge the Twins have is at starting pitcher. Berrios is on the verge of being elite. In his three quality starts, Berrrios not only gave up 0 runs, but he also went at least 7 innings. If he can do that tonight, the Twins can win this game. I expect they’ll get a few off Sabathia and hope that’s enough. I may hate myself in the morning, but I’m fading Sabathia again. I haven’t actually pulled the trigger on this one yet, because the line’s still rising. It’s up to +132 now. I’ll definitely be on the Twins at the best price that I can get.
Pick – MINN ML (+130 for 1 unit)
ATL @ CIN
Starting Pitchers
Brandon McCarthy is healthy, and he’s off to a strong start with the Bravees. He’s 3-0 with a quality start. McCarthy has allowed a few less hits (20) than innings pitched (21.2) and 8 walks, resulting in a 1.29 WHIP. He has yet to give up more than 3 runs in any of his starts, and has allowed just 1 in his last two which explains his 2.91 ERA. McCarthy’s advanced ERA metrics, a 3.47 xFIP and a 4.02 SIERA, are a little higher than his ERA, but still pretty solid. That may be the result of his pedestrian 7.48 K/9 rate and high 3.32 BB/9 rate.
McCarthy started last season healthy and in the Dodgers' rotation. He threw more innings than his previous two seasons combined (92.2), but still couldn't avoid the DL. He fell victim to three DL trips, the last a two-month stint with blister issues that kept him out until nearly the end of the season. He finished 6-4 with a 1.25 WHIP and a 3.98 ERA. He increased the use of his sinker producing a solid 22.9% soft contact rate and an impressive 5.4% HR/FB ratio. McCarthy's 2.42 BB/9 while better than average, was still higher than his early-2010s days, but 6.99 K/9 was actually a little higher.
Injuries have often plagued the star-crossed McCarthy. Since his 2007 big-league debut, he has averaged just 19 19 starts and 106 innings per seasonar, making 15 trips to the DL during that 11-year span. Unfortunately, the injuries have taken their toll on Mccarthy. These days he's mostly a pitch-to-contact type, serviceable middle of the rotation starter, as long as he stays healthy.
Rookie Tyler Mahle got off to a fst start this season shutting out the Cubs over 6 innings, while striking out 7 and gicing up just 1 hit and 2 walks in his major league debut. However, over his next three starts, Mahle has given up 25 hits and 12 runs over 15 innings, with 13 Ks and 5 walks. He’s 1-3 with than one quality start in his debut. Mahle has given up 26 hits in his 21 innings and coupled with his 7 walks, leaves him with a very high 1.57 WHIP. If Mahle continues to allow as much contact as he did in 2017, it will be tough for him to overcome at a hitter-friendly venue like Great American Ball Park. Mahle has also given up 12 runs and 5 HRs. Surprisingly, his ERA metricsm a 4.02 xFIP and 4.05 SIERA, are better than his ERA. His 8.57 K/9 rate is solid, but his 3.00 BB/9 and 2.14 HR/9 rates are both too high and could be problematic.
In his very small 4-start sample in the big leagues last year, Mahle induced a high number of ground balls (52.5%) but really struggled with his control. Mahle walked 11 batters in just 20 innings with the Reds before being shut down in mid-September, after hitting his innings limit. Mahle features a 92-95 mph 4-seam and mid 80s slider. As an equalizer to lefties, Mahle has leaned on his changeup from time to time but typically keeps that pitch in his pocket against righties.
Edge - ATL
Bullpens
Both of these teams were projected to have weak bullpens (ATL #22, and CIN #24) this season, and those projections appear to be accurate. The weakness of the ATL pen was on full display last night as they got hammered. As for the Reds pen, we really don’t know that much because they’re so often pitching from behind. They have a legitimare close in Iglesias, but that’s looks to be about it. We have two lousy pens, with no obvious edge.
Edge - None
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Reds
|
-25.9
|
28
|
71
|
30
|
0.277
|
29
|
0.089
|
29
|
0.9
|
9
|
8.8%
|
16
|
23.6%
|
17
|
-0.1
|
30
|
Brewers
|
-5.2
|
21
|
97
|
15
|
0.317
|
12
|
0.158
|
14
|
-1.6
|
24
|
8.8%
|
16
|
24.5%
|
22
|
2.8
|
14
|
The Braves have become close to a league average offense. They’re not great, but they are a hell of a lot better, than the Reds miserable excuse of aan offense.
Edge – ATL
Conclusion: The Brave are the clearly better offensive team, mostly by default, and the bullpens are pretty even. That leaves the two starting pitchers. I’m not a big Brandon McCarthy fan, but when’s he’s healthy he can be effective, and so fat tjhis season, that’s been the case. As for Tyler Mahle, I’m not at all impressed, The reds burned us last night, but they’ve only won 4 games all season. Two in a row seems like a stretch. We bet this one this morning.
Pick – ATL NL (-115 for 1 unit)
We’re ice cold tonight. CC Sabathia continues to torment me, and the Braves team that I watched battle the Metsm somehow has been replaced by a bunch of bozos that can’t hit or pitch a lick while facing one of the worst teams in baseball. Sometime that’s just how it goes. We’ll try one more.
WAH @ SF
Starting Pitchers
Tanner Roark has started four games for the Nationals with most good results. He’s only 1-1, but has delivered three quality starts. Roark have given up just 14 hits in his 25 innings, and even when we throw in his 9 walks, it still comes out to a superb 0.92 WHIP. He’s only given up 10 runs (9 earned) and 5 of those came in his one bad outing. In the other three, he gave up 2 or less, and in two of them it was just 1 run. The bottom line is a solid 3.24 ERA. Roark’s advanced WRA metrics are closer to 4.00, but Roark has a history of consistently outperforming his metrics. Hre striling out close to a batter per inning (24), and while his 2.34 BB/9 rate is on the high side, his 24/9 K/BB ratio is solid.
Ty Blach has started 5 games for the Giants with very mixed results. He’s 1-3, with 3 solid outings including 2 quality starts, and 2 weak ones. He’s given up more hit (30) than innings pitched (26.1), and combined with his 12 walks, resulted in a poor 1.59 WHIP. Blach has given up 13 runs (12 earned) for a mediocre 4.10 ERA. His advanced ERA metrics are also right up these, suggesting that his ERA is well deserved. Blach has only fanned 13 (a very weak 4.44K/9 rate), and is 12/11 K/BB ratio pretty ugly as well. The only positive thing on Blach’s resume this season is his 0.34 HR/9 rate.
Edge – WASH
Bullpens
The Nats are supposed to have the better bullpen (#8 v #21). However, so far this season the Nats really haven’t bee much, if any better than the Giants.
Edge – None
Offenses
Team
|
Off
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
Nationals
|
-1.4
|
12
|
97
|
15
|
0.315
|
13
|
0.150
|
17
|
1.7
|
5
|
11.6%
|
2
|
22.3%
|
12
|
2.7
|
15
|
Giants
|
-18.3
|
24
|
84
|
24
|
0.290
|
26
|
0.130
|
26
|
-3.6
|
29
|
7.0%
|
30
|
25.8%
|
27
|
1.2
|
23
|
Offensively, the Nats are supposed to loaded, but so far they’ve been maybe a little better than league average. On the plus side, that still makes them a lot better than the offensively challenged Giants.
Edge – WASH
Conclusion: En ven if consider these two bullpens to be even, I get the much better offense and when we get to these two starting pitchers, Tanner Roark has a lot more positives than Ty Blach.
Pick – WASH ML (-108 for 2 units)