Below is my final "post mortem" analysis of Dodgers'surprising game 7 loss, including allocating the blame, as well as what Dodger manager Roberts could and should have done differently, and finally, what the Dodgers are likely to do with their manager.
Not surprisingly, there has been lots of “Thursday morning QBs” here in So Cal today, after the Dodgers' surprising game 7 loss, some of them not only blaming Dodgers manager Dave Roberts for the loss, but also calling for his firing, mostly on account of his ill-fated decision to start Yu Darvish, who the Astros already had beaten up pretty badly when Darvish delivered that “clunker” in game 3 of the Series in Houston, where (like last nite) he could not even make it out of the second inning, in addition to having beaten him during the regular season (when Darvish was pitching for the Texas Rangers, before being picked up by LA just prior to the summer trade deadline). Although I gave very little pre-game thought to the issue of who the Dodgers should start in game 7, since that was not my decision, and I would just deal with whatever decision Roberts made in that regard, and bet the game accordingly, the above is the obvious rationale for why Roberts should not have started Darvish. And while those who defend Roberts, including Roberts himself, say that he wanted to go with his rested #3 starter, and figured, with some justification (mostly that Darvish had performed very well in two playoff starts TY against Arizona and the Cubs, giving up just one run in each), that his disastrous game 3 start in Houston (where the Astros typically hit MUCH better TY than on the road) was just a random aberration.
But here is where that analysis of Roberts wanting to use a “rested starter” breaks down, and one major respect in which I believe Roberts faltered. While it made little sense to start Dodger ace Kershaw, who had thrown 94 pitches in his 4 2/3 inning start during that wild game 5 Sunday nite, and thus would be starting on only two days’ rest, Dodgers #4 starter, Alex Wood, had pitched great in LAD’s game 4 win at Houston (where again, the Astros typically hit MUCH better TY than on the road), allowing just one hit and one run in 5 2/3 innings (which is a whole lot better than Darvish did against them in game 3 at the same venue). And with game 4 having been played Sat nite, and Wood having thrown 84 pitches in that game, the 3 ½ days of rest between starts presumably would have been adequate for Wood to go for at least 4 or 5 innings last nite, long enough to bring in Dodger ace Kershaw (who totally shut down the Astros in the four innings that he pitched last nite) for a few innings of relief work, not the first time Kershaw has been used in a relief role in the playoffs, and bringing back memories of the awesome job that SF Giants’ starter Madison Bumgarner had done a few years ago to win game 7 of the World Series against Kansas City, pitching five innings in relief, also on just two days’ rest. And then if Kershaw performed well, as he did last nite, leave him in for as long as he continued to do so, even giving him a chance to close out the game if Dodgers had the lead going into the ninth, rather than bringing in Kelly Jansen, who had already blown one save (game 2) in the series, and might not be pitching on a “full tank” after having pitched two innings the nite before, to close out game 6. Or if Kershaw faltered, then bring in Dodgers’ top middle reliever Kenta Maeda and/or their “set up” reliever Brandon Morrow, before turning the save opportunity over to Kelly Jansen for the final 3 outs (again, assuming Dodgers had the lead going into the ninth). I believe this pitching strategy would have worked out MUCH BETTER for the Dodgers, who in that event would now be looking forward to their victory parade through the streets of downtown LA, rather than thinking about “might have beens” and “woulda, coulda, shouldas,” and also having self-doubts and being second-guessed by “experts” possessing 20/20 hindsight.
Finally, while most of the blame for last nite’s loss goes to Dodger starter Yu Darvish (as it should), who obviously will not be re-signed by the Dodgers), I also allocate a substantial share of the blame to Dodger manager Roberts, for his poor pitching decision that blew up in his face, and may cost him his job, because (i) all of the above information (except for Kershaw’s surprising success in relief last nite) supporting a decision to instead start Alex Wood was available to Roberts BEFORE the game, to be weighed in making his decision, and (ii) Roberts obviously failed to appreciate (until it was too late) that game 7 of the World Series is like none other, because there is LITERALLY NO TOMORROW (and it’s “all hands on deck” as far as a manager using one or more of his top starters in relief, if the situation calls for that). But does Roberts deserve to be fired over this? Actually, I’d be surprised if the Dodgers “can” Roberts, noting that not only did Roberts take the Dodgers to > 100 regular season wins TY and farther in the post-season playoffs than they’ve been in almost 30 years (since their 1988 World Series upset of the powerful Oak As and the “Bash Brothers”), but also that if they did fire him, who is actually available as an “attractive option” to replace him? IMO, not ANY of the 3 managers cut loose last month after their teams were knocked out of the playoffs (first Farrell of the Boston Red Sox, then Dusty Baker of the Washington Nats, and finally Joe Girardi of the New York Yankees, who as we know took Houston to 7 games in the ALCS). And while (if it were my decision) I would fire Roberts in a “New York minute” and replace him with Chicago Cubs’ Joe Maddon, who IMO is easily the best manager in baseball, IF Maddon was “available,” he is not (available), as he is “under contract” with the Cubs through the 2019 season (and unlike in football, especially college football, MLB managers don’t “bolt” from their contracts early just to get a better deal with another team, especially not guys with integrity, like Joe Maddon).
Whether or not you agree with my above analysis, I hope that you at least thought it was a "good read," and I welcome any follow up questions or comments related to the above.
Great Owl