For what it's worth, while we don't use terminology like "game of the season", but we suppose that would have been appropriate last night, because we had our largest wager of the MLB season (6 units) on Kershaw and Co. We lost 3 units on the Dodgers on Wednesday night. Honestly, we were very surprised that LA didn't complete the sweep then, so we just doubled down on the Dodgers last night, and it cashed easily, winning 3.87 units, and bring our season total to +20.87 units. Now if we could just catch some break on our NFL picks....
On to today's game
NYY @ HTN
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
W-L
|
QS/GS
|
QS %
|
4+ ER/GS
|
4+ ER %
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Severino - R
|
14-6
|
21/31
|
67.7%
|
(6/31)
|
19.4%
|
1.04
|
2.98
|
3.25
|
3.04
|
10.71
|
2.37
|
0.98
|
0.208
|
0.272
|
75.5%
|
Verlander - R
|
15-8
|
23/33
|
69.7%
|
(6/33)
|
18.2%
|
1.17
|
3.36
|
4.05
|
4.17
|
9.57
|
3.15
|
1.18
|
0.220
|
0.271
|
79.7%
|
Luis Severino had absolutely nothing in his Wildcard start against the Twins. He gave up 4 hits, including 2 HRs, and 3 run in just a third of an inning, before Yankee Manager Joe Girardi wisely pulled him. He came back in Game 4 of the ALDS against CLEV and tossed 7 strong innings, giving up 4 hits and 3 runs, with 9 Ks and 1 BB, in a 7-3 NY win. His most recent start was in Game 2 of the ALC at HTN, in which he tossed 4 innings giving up 2 hits, 2 BB, and 1 run in a 2-1 loss to verlander and the Astros.
Severino had a great season. He's was the Yankees best and most consistent starter. all season Two thirds of his outings (21) were quality starts, including his last 8. He gave up 4 or more earned runs just 6 times. which is less than 20% of his starts. That's better than a 3 to 1 ratio of good starts to bad. His WHIP was just over 1.00 and his ERA was under 3.00. Hid advanced ERA metrics are right in line with his ERA. He's struck out well over a batter per inning and he did not giving up the long ball.
Justin Verlander also had a great season. He won 15 games, with a 1.17 WHIP and a 3.36 ERA, which were both a little higher than Severino's, but not by that much. The same goes for his 9.57 K/9 and 1.18HR/9. The biggest difference was the almost 1 more walks per 9. Verlander also had 23 quality starts in his 33 outings. That's 2% higher that Severino's rate, and Verlander also missed another by just 1 out. When we look at starts in which he gave up at least 4 earned runs, Verlander had 6. That almost 1% less than Severino's 6.
However, Verlander's been much better since the AS break, posting a 10-2 record, with a 0.82 WHIP, a 1.95 ERA, and 13 quality starts in his 15 outings. That's an 86.7% clip, and in just 1 start did he give up more than 3 earned runs. Since joining the Astros, Verlander has been even better [posting a 5-0 record, with a 0.65 WHIP, a 1.06 ERA, and 5 quality starts in 5 outings. As an Astro, he's given up 1 or fewer earned runs in 4 of the 5, and 2 in the other.
Verlander 's also been stellar in the postseason. He's 3-0 with a 0.96 WHIP, a 2.04 ERA, a .200 BAA and 2 quality starts in his 2 outings as a starter. He beat the Red Sox 8-2 in Game 1 of the ALDS series, and was also the winnning pitcher in relief in Game 4. He followed than up by tossing a complete game gem in Game 2 of the ALCS against these Yankees, striking out 13 and allowing just 1run on 5 hits, with 13 Ks and 1 BB to earn the W.
Edge - HTN small
Bullpens
Regular Season
Last 30 Days
The Astros pen probably suffered from overuse during the regular season because other than Keuchel, who missed time with injury, McCullers, who missed time with injury, and Verlander, who was acquired late in the season, HTN's starting pitching was pretty mediocre
As for the Yankees pen, Chapman struggled in the middle of the season, but he has since found his form, Betances looks lost and can't be trusted in high leverage situations anymore, but the David Robertson acquisition has given the Yankees plenty of depth
On paper, these two bullpens look pretty evenly matched, but based on how these two bullpens have performed in the postseason, we'll give NY a small edge.
Edge - NYY
Offenses
Regular Season
Last 30 Days (*postseason only)
Team
|
ORAA
|
wRC+
|
RPG*
|
BABIP
|
AVG*
|
wOBA
|
OBP*
|
ISO
|
SLG*
|
HR PG*
|
BsR
|
SB PG*
|
K%
|
BB%
|
NYY
|
72.9
|
108
|
4.55
|
0.304
|
0.218
|
0.336
|
0.299
|
0.185
|
0.394
|
1.36
|
10.6
|
0.91
|
21.8%
|
9.7%
|
HTN
|
161.8
|
121
|
3.67
|
0.309
|
0.239
|
0.349
|
0.317
|
0.196
|
0.391
|
1.00
|
0.9
|
1.11
|
17.3%
|
8.1%
|
Both of these teams can hit a ton, but the numbers say the Astros get the edge here. However notice that the postseason only numbers are much lower. I still believe that's good pitching trumps good hitting, especially in the postseason.
Edge - HTN small
Defensive Runs Above Average
Edge - NYY
Road / Home
The Yankees were only 40-41 on the road, and 1-4 in the posttseason. the Astros were 48-33 at home, and 3-0 in the postseason.
Edge - HTN
Managers
We have already seen Girari's at his best in the AL Wildcard win over MINN, and at his worst in the Game 2 loss to the Indians. He's a very good young manager.
I can't say that I have much of an opinion on A.J. Finch. I think, he overused his bullpen, much like I thought Buck Showalter did last season, but I think that in both cases it was probably out of necessity. Even during a rough stretch in the muddle of the season, he didn't seem to panic. I didn't think much of his move in using Verlander out of the pen earlier in the postseason. It seemed unnecessary and could have come back to bite him in the ass.
Conclusion: I've always felt that good pitching trumps good hitting, and I believe that's even more true in the playoffs. I also feel bullpens also become even more important. Both of these teams can hit, but they can both also be shut down with good pitching.
As I mentioned before Game 5, I'm not thrilled about betting against this Yankee team right now. These kids don't realize that they're not supposed to win, and that makes them very dangerous. However, if you're going to fade the Yankees, you definitely want to do so on the road, wjere they're just 1-4 in this postseason. I also don't have a lot of faith in the Astros bullpen right now.
However, I do think that Justin Verlander is more likely to deliver a stellar outing than Luis Serverino. Severino's been very good, but Verlander's been outstanding. If I trusted the Astros pen, this would be a larger wager, but I don't so...
Pick - HTN ML (-140 for 1 unit)