For what it's worth, Tuesday's sweep was rudely pushed to our rearview mirror by yesterday's dose of reality. We gave back 4 units. That leaves us at +16.10 for the season,
The Astros loss was brutally bad, but not entirely surprising. That's why we only risked 1 unit. Both Tanaka and Sabathia are pitching better than they have all season. Damned it I know why? The Astros look like they're playing scared, and they should be. Verlander could get them to a game 7, but where do they go then? Do they dare pitch McCullers on 3 days rest? Not if they're smart. That leaves Morton? Peacock?. Neither is a particularly appealing option for a winner take all game 7. Looks like a Yankees/Dodgers series to me.
As for the Dodgers and Cubs. I was very surprised that LA didn't complete the sweep last night. It cost us 3 units. Hats off to Jake Arrieta on a strong outing against a far superior opponent. However it only prolongs the inevitable. The Dodgers are the much better team. I'll be all in on LA and Kershaw tonight.
On to today's game
LAD @ CHI
The Cubs surprised me last night, but even in victory they looked like they were on fumes.
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
W-L
|
QS/GS
|
QS %
|
4+ ER/GS
|
4+ ER %
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Quintana - L
|
(11-11)
|
18/32
|
56.3%
|
(8/32)
|
25.0%
|
1.22
|
4.15
|
3.8
|
3.73
|
9.87
|
2.91
|
1.10
|
0.236
|
0.301
|
17.8%
|
Kershaw - L
|
18-4
|
20/27
|
74.1%
|
(5/27)
|
18.5
|
0.95
|
2.31
|
3.04
|
2.84
|
10.39
|
1.54
|
1.18
|
0.210
|
0.267
|
87.4%
|
As usual, Clayton Kershaw didn't make it through the entire season, without missing time because of injury. Still, he gave the Dodgers another extraordinary season. Despite missing the last week of July and the full month of August, Kershaw still managed to start 27 games and produce 18 wins. Over 744% of his outings (20) were quality starts, and he allowed more than 3 earned runss just 5 times. That's a 4 to1 ratio of good starts to bad. Kershaw's 0.95 WHIP ranked 3rd. His 2,31 ERA ranked 2nd. His 10.39 K/9 ranked 9th and his 1.54 BB/9 ranked 2nd. You get the picture. You almost never get a complete season, but you do get around 180 innings (175 this season) of the best pitcher in baseball.
Over the last few years, Jose Quintana has been a model of consistency. Each of the four seasons before this one, he pitched between 200 and 208 IP with a WHIP between 1.16 and 1.27, an ERA between 3.20 and 3.51, a SIERA between 3.50 and 4.01, an xFIP between 3.37 and 4.03, and a K-BB% between 15.2% and 15.6%.
This season Quintana's final numbers don't look all that different. The 4.15 ERA is higher, but everything else still looks about the same. Quintana made 18 starts for the White Sox, before the trade that made him a Cub, with 9 quality starts. However, he also had 5 starts in which he allowed at least 4 earned runs, and in 4 of them it was at least 5 runs, but none since May 30. In his 14 starts with the Cubs, Quintana has delivered 9 more quality starts. Overall, that's 18 quality starts in his 32 outings, better than a 56% clip. Since June 1, Quintana is 9-4 over his last 14 starts, with a 1.25 WHIP and a 3.59 ERA. That sound like typical Quintana.
This is not a tough call. Quintana's solid, but Kershaw is spectacular. Usually, when Kershaw pitches the Dodgers are at least -200, so this price seems cheap.
Edge - LAD
Bullpens
The Dodgers bullpen is elite. The Cubs pen clearly isn't, and Wade Davis threw 44 pitches last night.
Edge - LAD
Offenses
Both teams swing the bats well, and are pretty evenly matched
Edge - None
Defensive Runs Above Average
Edge - CHI slight
Road / Home
The Dodgers were 47-34 on the road, not bad, but the Cubs were a not much better 48-33 at home
Edge - NONE
Managers
CHI's Joe Maddon have a well earned reputation. LA's Dave Roberts has taken his team to the top. I'll give Maddon an experience edge, but that's it.
Edge - CHI slight
Conclusion: I know it's another must win game for the Cubs, but let's face it. T his series is over . There's a reason that the Cubs are down 3-1, and on the brink of elimination. I'm still a sucker for good pitching, and tonight the Dodgers have the best pitcher in baseball going for them here. As I mentioned earlier, getting Kershaw and the Dodgers at this price is a bargain. The Dodgers also have the much better pen and a potent offense. My opinion hasn't changed one bit. The Dodgers are the clearly better team here. I'm doubling down on the Dodgers tonight.
Pick - LA ML (-155 for 6 units)