For what it's worth, yesterday's sweep finally got us over the e shock of our 4 unit CLEV loss to the Yankees in Game 5 of the ALDS. As mentioned, we swept both game yesterday, and while we'd love to brag about our great capping, the truth is that we got damned lucky with the Yankees. The bottom line is bween our 2 unit wager on the NY ML and our 3 unit wager on the LA ML, we finished +4.64 units for the day and ++20.10 units for the season.
The very young, but very talented Yankees trailed 4-0 after 6. Astros starter Lance McCullers was virtually unhittable. After getting off to a great start, Between injuries and ineffectiveness, McCullers hadn't had a good outing since June. Last night he was stellar until baby bomber Aaron Judge homered to lead off the 7th, and HTN manager A.J. Hinch pulled McCullers after 81 pitches, SS Didi Gregorius, another member of NY's "Kiddie Korps" tripled off R Chris Devensky and C Sanchez, yet another baby bomber, brought Gregorius in with a sac fly to make it 4-2. Judge then tied it at 4 in the 8th, with a line drive that nearly left the park in the 8th and scored when Sanchez, hit a the go-ahead 2-run double off loser Ken G/iles.
Yankees hard luck starter Sonny Gray also pitched 1-hit ball through 5 innings, but his teammates have yet to score a run for him in 4 career postseason starts, including twice with NY this season. A walk, a catcher's interference call, and another walk, loaded the bases with no outs, and ended Gray's evening. Yuli Giriel, ironically inserted for his defense, lined a 3-run double off R David Robertson to take a 3-0 lead in the 6th. HTN added another run in the 7th when NY 2nd baseman Stantin Castro misplayed a grounder for his 2nd error, allowing a HTN runner to score from 2nd.
As for the nightcap, That one did play out as expected. Dodgers' started Yu Darvish gave up a 1st inning HR, but nothing else as he scattered 7 hits over 6.1 innings with 7 Ks and `1 BB. The Dodgers scored 1 in the 2nd on a solo HR, 1 in the 2nd on another solo HR, 1 in the 5th and a triple, and chased Kyle Hendricks in the 6th. The elite Dodger pen shut down the Cubs over the final 2.2 innings and LA took an almost insurmountable 3-0 series lead with a 6-1 win.
On to today's first game
HTN @ NYY
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
W-L
|
QS/GS
|
QS %
|
4+ ER/GS
|
4+ ER %
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Keuchel - L
|
14-5
|
15/23
|
65.2%
|
(4/23)
|
17.4%
|
1.12
|
2.90
|
3.61
|
3.32
|
7.72
|
2.90
|
0.93
|
0.217
|
0.256
|
79.9%
|
Tanaka - R
|
13-12
|
16/30
|
53.3%
|
(11/30)
|
36.7%
|
1.24
|
4.74
|
3.52
|
3.44
|
9.79
|
2.07
|
1.77
|
0.256
|
0.305
|
71.5%
|
Before suffering a neck injury in early June and missing almost 2 months, Dallas Keuchel had started 11 games and posted a 9-0 record with 9 quality starts. That over an 81% clip! He went at least 7 full innings in 7 of them, and had allowed more than 2 runs just once. He allowed 1 or less in f5 of them. In his one subpar start, Keuchel allowed 5 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks while striking out 5 over 8+ innings in a 7-6 extra-inning win over the Angels. He actually pitched much better than that line suggests. Through 8 innings, he had allowed just 2 runs and 4 hits. With Keuchel's pitch count at 95, and the Astros leading 6-2, manager A.J. Hinch foolishly sent Keuchel out for the bottom of the ninth. After he allowed 3 straight hits, Hinch brought in closer Ken Giles, but Giles allowed 3 more hits and the Angels forced extra innings. Despite the numbers, it was still a good start for Keuchel.
After returning from the DL, Keuchel made 12 starts, posting a 5-5 record with 7 quality starts. That was over a 58% clip, still OK but a far cry from the 81% before the injury. Keuchel also had 3 starts in which he gave up at least 4 earned runs. Again, that wasn't awful, but nowhere near as good as before the injury. The same held true in Keuchel's supporting numbers. Before the injury, Keuchel had a 0.77 WHIP, a 1.67 ERA and a 69/16 K/BB ratio. After the injury, Keuchel had a 1.39 WHIP and a 4.29 ERA and a 56/29 K/BB ratio. Again, that's not awful, but nowhere near as good.
One of the most significant factors in Keuchel's success this season has been the fact that he's allowed more soft contact than hard contact, and that's almost unheard of! Keuchel's 25.4% soft contact rate ranked #1 among all MLB starters with at least 140 innings pitched, as does his 24.7% hard contact rate. Again, he was better before the injury, posting a 29.9% soft contact rate and a 20.6% hard contact rate. after returning from the injury, he had a 21.4% soft contact rate v a 28.4% hard contact rate. Again, that's not bad, but clrearly nit as good as before the injury.
Keuchel will be making his 3rd postseason start this season. He beat the Red Sox in game 2 the ALDS, back on October 6, 8-2. He gave up just 3 hits and 1 run over 5.2 innings , with 7 Ks and 2 BBs. He followed that up with a 7 inning gem against the Yankees and Tanaka, on October 13, in which he gave up 4 hits and 0 runs, with 10 Ks and 1 BB, in a 2-1 win in game 1 of the ALCS.
Masahiro Tanaka was much more inconsistent this season, than ever before. Yes, has 16 quality starts, and that's a little better than 53% of his starts. However, but he also has 11 starts in which he's given up 4 or more earned runs, and that's higher than usual for Tanaka. His 1.24 WHIP isn't awful, but it is higher than his 1.10 career mark. His 4.74 ERA is over a full run higher than his career mark of 3.48. Hi walks and HRs a both up as well. Strangely, his metrics sit in the mid 3's, over a full run better than his bloated ERA. His .305 BABIP is 27 points higher than his career mark, and tells me that Tanaka had some bad luck on batted balls in play, and that he still pitched better than his ERA would suggest. His biggest problem this season has been the long ball. His 21.2% HR/FB ratio was the worst in MLB, and 5.1% higher that his career 16.1% mark As a result he gave up 1.77 HR/9 which was the 3rd worst in baseball, and 0.46 higher than his career 1.31. Only Jeremy Hellickson and John Lackey were worse.
This season's Masahiro Tanaka was still more likely to have a good outing than a bad one, but he was a far cry from a sure thing. However, he's been very good in the postseason. He beat the Indians 1-0 in a pressure packed game 3 of the ALDS, with NY down 0-2 in the 5 game series. He tossed 7 shutout innings giving up 3 hits, with 7 Ks and 1 BB. He followed that up with another strong outing in the aforementioned 2-1 loss to Keuchel and the Astros in game 1 of the ALCS. He pitched 6 solid innings, giving up 4 hits and 2 runs, with 3 Ks and 1 BB.
This is a close matchup, but the numbers tell me that the post injury Keuchel has still pitched as well as, and maybe even a little better than Tanaka has. That's also been the case in the postseason.
Edge - HTN small
Bullpens
On paper, these two bullpens look pretty evenly matched.
The Astros pen probably suffered from overuse during the regular season because other than Keuchel, who missed time with injury, McCullers, who missed time with injury, and Verlander, who was acquired late in the season, HTN's starting pitching was pretty mediocre. I must admit that last night's meltdown is somewhat troubling
As for the Yankees pen, Chapman struggled in the middle of the season, but he has since found his form, Betances looks lost and can't be trusted in high leverage situations anymore, but the David Robertson acquisition has given the Yankees plenty of depth. Last night, once NY took the lead, I was pretty sure that the NY pen would hold it.
Edge - NYY small
Offenses
Both of these teams can hit a ton, but the numbers say the Astros get the edge here.
Edge - HTN
Defensive Runs Above Average
Edge - NYY
Road / Home
The Astros were an impressive 53-28 on the road, while the Yankees were 51-20 at home.
Edge - None
Managers
We have already seen Girari's at his best in the AL Wildcard win over MINN, and at his worst in the Game 2 loss to the Indians. He's a very good young manager.
I can't say that I have much of an opinion on A.J. Finch. I think, he overused his bullpen, much like I thought Buck Showalter did last season, but I think that in both cases it was probably out of necessity. Even during a rough stretch in the muddle of the season, he didn't seem to panic. I didn't think much of his move in using Verlander out of the pen earlier in the postseason. It seemed unnecessary and could come back to bite him in the ass.
Conclusion: I've always felt that good pitching trumps good hitting, and that's even more true in the playoffs. I also feel bullpens become even more important. Both of these teams can hit, but they can both also be shut down with good pitching.
I'm not thrilled about betting against this Yankee team right now. These kids don't realize that they're not supposed to win, and that makes them very dangerous. I also don't trust the Astros bullpen right now.
However, I do think that Dallas Keuchel is more likely to deliver a stellar 5 innings than Masahiro Tanaka. He's been more consistent than Tanaka has. I also think Keuchel's a really tough matchup for these kids, because only 39.4% of his pitches are in the strike zone. That's the 2nd lowest mark among starting pitchers. He's also really tough on lefties (.144 BA, 0.54 WHIP and .192 wOBRA), making him a nice fit pitching in Yankee Stadium. I think Tanaka's more likely to give up a few early runs (ie HR). So we'll try to avoid the bullpens.
Pick - HTN 1st 5 ML ML (-101 for 1 unit)
LAD @ CHI
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
W-L
|
QS/GS
|
QS %
|
4+ ER/GS
|
4+ ER %
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Wood - L
|
15-3
|
15/25
|
60.0%
|
(5/25)
|
20.0%
|
1.09
|
2.82
|
3.59
|
3.34
|
9.00
|
2.27
|
0.92
|
0.233
|
0.277
|
80.0%
|
Arrieta - R
|
14-10
|
16/30
|
53.3%
|
(7/30)
|
23.3%
|
1.22
|
3.53
|
4.15
|
4.11
|
8.71
|
2.94
|
1.30
|
0.234
|
0.279
|
72.8%
|
Alex Wood made 25 starts for the Dodgers, and 60% of them (15) were quality Starts. He allowed more than 3 earned runs just 5 times all season. His 1.09 WHIP and 2.82 ERA are excellent and his metric are equally outstanding. He struck out a batter per inning, and he didn't give up the long ball very often, 0.92 HR/9. His walks were a little high. but under 3 per 9, and opposing batters hit just .233 against him. There's really not much to dislike here. Wood could have a bad outing. He's had 5, but I wouldn't be on it. In fact, I'm betting against it.
In his Cy Young Award winning 2015 season, and for the first half of 2016, Jake Arrieta was absolutely dominant. That's no longer the case. Yes, Arrieta has thrown 16 quality starts. That slightly more than 53% of his starts, but he also has 7 starts in which he's allowed at least 4 earned runs. That's a little better than a 2-1 ratio of good to bad starts. His 1.23 WHIP is still pretty good, but it's his highest since 2013, and a little higher than his career 1.17. His 3.53 ERA is very good by today's standards, and a little better than his career 3.65. He still striking out close to a batter per inning (8. 71 K/9), but he's also walked almost 3 per 9 inning (2.94 BB/9). His 1.30 HR/9 is fine, but his 45.1% GB rate is the lowest it's been since 2013. Arrieta has not been awful, or even bad. He's just not anywhere near as good, or as consistent as he was just 1-2 years ago, and at 31, that just may be the new normal for Jake Arrieta, but it's still pretty good.
Since the AS break, Arrieta is 6-3, with a 1.09 WHIP, a 2.28 ERA, 8 quality starts ( he missed a 9th by just 1 out) and he hasn't given up more than 3 runs in any of his 12 starts. That's still very good. Arrieta mde 1 postseason start in game 4 of the Cubs NLDS series against the Nationals. He gave up 4 hits and 1 run (unearned) over 4 innings, but that was 1 run too many, because Stephen Strasburg threw a shutout.
This is another tough call. Wood's had a great season, but Arrieta's been none to shabby either. The numbers say that Wood was a little better this season
Edge - LAD slight
Bullpens
The Dodgers bullpen is elite. The Cubs pen clearly isn't.
Edge - LAD
Offenses
Both teams swing the bats well, and are pretty evenly matched
Edge - None
Defensive Runs Above Average
Edge - CHI slight
Road / Home
The Dodgers were 47-34 on the road, not bad, but the Cubs were a not much better 48-33 at home
Edge - NONE
Managers
CHI's Joe Maddon have a well earned reputation. LA's Dave Roberts has taken his team to the top. I'll give Maddon an experience edge, but that's it.
Edge - CHI slight
Conclusion: I know it's absolutely a must win game for the Cubs, but so was last night's game. There's a reason that the Cubs are down 3-0, and on the brink of elimination. I'm a sucker for good pitching, and we have two solid starters in Wood and Arrieta going tonight The big difference here is that the Dodgers have the much better bullpen. Both teams have potent offenses. The Cubs are good at home, but the Dodger are almost as good on the road. LA is, IMO is the clearly better team and they have the much better bullpen. This shapes up to be a close game late, and if so, we've gotta go with LA and their elite pen. We get the better team at even money!
Pick - LA ML (-100 for 3 units)