For what it's worth, our wallet and pride haven't completely recovered the shock of our 4 unit CLEV loss to the Yankees in Game 5 of the ALDS. Fpr the record, although I didn't bet his last game, I still hate CC Sabathia. His skill set says he shouldn't be pitching anywhere near this well, but somehow he is. My guess is that he must have sold his soul to the devil. All I'm sure of is that he's cost me a goodly sum this season, so I'm just staying as far away from him as I can.
On the plus side we did bounce back with the Dodgers and Kershaw in the NLCS game 1. Unfortunately, the Dodgers waited until the 6th inning to go ahead costing us our 2 unit 1st 5 wager, but our 3 unit ML play, and our 1 unit RL both cashed, leaving us +0.60 for the game, and +15.46 for the season.
On to today's first game
HTN @ NYY
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
W-L
|
QS/GS
|
QS %
|
4+ ER/GS
|
4+ ER %
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
McCullers
|
(7-4)
|
(8/22)
|
36.4%
|
(7/22)
|
31.8%
|
1.30
|
4.25
|
3.41
|
3.17
|
10.01
|
2.03
|
0.61
|
0.247
|
0.330
|
67.6%
|
Gray - R
|
(10-12)
|
17/27
|
63.0%
|
(6/27)
|
22,2%
|
1.21
|
3.55
|
4.08
|
3.76
|
8.48
|
3.16
|
1.05
|
0.225
|
0.269
|
69.6%
|
Once again this season, injuries limited Lance McCullers' innings and efeefctiveness. From the beginning of the season through his June 8 start, McCullers was one of the best pitchers in baseball. Over those 13 starts (76.2 innings), he posted a 6-1 record, with a 1.10 WHIP, a 2.58 ERA, 89 s, 23 BBs, 8 quality starts, and only 2 starts in which he gave up more than 3 earned runs.
Since then, in McCullers 9 starts (just 42 innings), he posted 1-3 record, with a 1.74 WHIP, a 4.70 ERA, 43 Ks, 8 BBs, no quality starts, and 5 in which he gave up at least 4 earned runs. His postseason hasn't been any better. McCullers gave up 5 runs on 6 hits, with 6 Ks and 2 BBs in 4.1 innings at BOS picking up the loss.
Sonny Gray has been a hard luck pitcher this season. He's only 10-12, but his numbers say that he's pitched better than that. He has 17 quality starts in his 27 outings, and missed another by just 1 out. That's a 63% clip. He also had 6 starts in which he's gave up at least 4 earned runs. That's almost a 3 to 1 ratio of good starts to bad. His 1.21 WHIP and 3.65 ERA are both solid as are his ERA metrics. Gray is striking out just under a batter per inning, but his 3.16 BB/9 is high. Those aren't the numbers of a 10-12 pitcher.
While Gray has had some bad luck, he's also been a disappointment since joining the Yankees. Gray started 11 games for the Yankees and posted a 4-7 record, with a 1.26 WHIP, a 3.72 ERA, an 8.13 K/9, a 3.77 BB/9, with 6 quality start, and 3 in which he gave up at least 4 earned runs. That's still a 2 to 1 ratio of good starts to bad. Gray has also been less than stallar so far in the postseason. In is one start iin game 1 of the ALDS at CLEV, he gave up 3 runs on 3 hits, with 2 Ks and 4 BBs, lasting just 3.1 innings.
Edge - NYY
Bullpens
On paper, these two bullpens look pretty evenly matched.
The Astros pen probably suffered from overuse during the regular season because other than Keuchel, who mussed time with injury, McCullers, who missed time with injury, and Verlander, who was acquired late in the season, HTN's starting pitching was pretty mediocre.
As for the Yankees pen, Chapman struggles in the middle of the season, but he has since found his form, Betances looks lost and can't be trusted in high leverage sitations anymore, but the David Robertson acquisition has given the Yankees plenty of depth.
Edge - NONE
Offenses
Both of these teams can hit a ton, but the numbers say the Astros get the edge here.
Edge - HTN
Defensive Runs Above Average
Edge - NYY
Road / Home
The Astros were an impressive 53-28 on the road, while the Yankees were 51-20 at home.
Edge - None
Managers
We have already seen Girari's at his best in the AL Wildcard win over MINN, and at his worst in the Game 2 loss to the Indians. He's a very good young manager.
I can't say that I have much of an opinion on A.J. Finch. I think, he overused his bullpen, much like I thought Buck Showalter did last season, but I think that in both cases it was probably out of necessity. Even during a rough stretch in the muddle of the season, he didn't seem to panic. I didn't think much of his move in using Verlander out of the pen earlier in the postseason. It seemed unnecessary and could come back to bite him in the ass.
Conclusion: I've always felt that good pitching trumps good hitting, and that's even more true in the playoff. I also feel bullpens become even more important. Both of these teams can hit, but they can both also be shut down with good pitching. While, I'm not thrilled about betting on Sonny Gray, right now, I think he's still a lot more reliable than Lance McCullers. I don't expect much more than 3 innings from McCullers, if that, and I expect he'll get hit. I kind of expect Gray to be at least solid, if nor spectacular, and keep the Yanks in the game for 5-6 innings. If he does that, it should be enough.
Pick - NYY ML (-140 for 2 units)
LAD @ CHI
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
W-L
|
QS/GS
|
QS %
|
4+ ER/GS
|
4+ ER %
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Darvish
|
(10-12)
|
19/31
|
61.3%
|
(7/31)
|
22.6%
|
1.16
|
3.86
|
3.71
|
3.65
|
10.08
|
2.80
|
1.30
|
0.226
|
0.283
|
75/6%
|
Hendricks
|
(7-5)
|
13/24
|
54.2%
|
(4/24)
|
16.7%
|
1.19
|
3.03
|
4.08
|
3.76
|
7.93
|
2.58
|
1.10
|
0.239
|
0.281
|
82.5%
|
Yu Darvish is just 10-12 this season, but he has pitched better than that. He's started 31 games and delivered 19 quality starts. That's over 61% of his starts. He also had 7 starts in which he allowed at least 4 runs, including one in which he gave up 7 and another in which he gave up 10. That's close to a 3 to 1 ratio of good starts to bad, but sometime times the bad one can be really bad. His 1.16 WHIP and 3.36 ERA are both very good, and his metrics are right in line with his ERA. He struck out over a batter per inning (10.08 K/9), and his 2.80 BB/9 is a little on the high side, but not alarmingly so.
Since joining the Dodgers, Darvish is 4-3 in his 9 starts, with 4 quality starts. He gave up more than 3 earned runs just once. He posted a 1.15 WHIP and 3.44 ERA, with a 61/13 K/BB ratio. In his 1 postseason start at ARIZ, he threw 5 solid innings giving up 2 hit and 1 run with 2 Ks and no walks.
Like the Cubs, Kyle Hendricks has struggled a lot more this season, particularly when compared to how well he pitched last season. He started 24 games for the Cubs, and he delivered 13 quality starts including 8 of his last 9 outings. He also had just 4 starts in which he's gave up at least 4 earned runs, but none since returning from a stint on the DL. That's better than a 3 to 1 ratio of good starts to bad. His 1.19 WHIP and 3.03 ERA were both excellent, but his metrics were considerably higher, probably because of his pedestrian 7.93 K/9 rate.
Hendricks started two games in the Cubs NLDS win over the Nationals, tossing 7 superb innings of 2-hit shutout ball in game 1, then getting shelled to the tune of 9 hits (42 HRs) and 4 runs in 4 innings in game 5.
By contrast, last season, Hendricks had a career season posting a 16-9 record, with a 0.98 WHIP and a 1.08 ERA. Even, before his stint on the DL, It seemed very unlikely that Hendricks would produce that kind of season again. Even last season, his metrics, a 3.70 SIERA and a 3.59 x FIP indicated that he was the beneficiary of some very good luck. However, over his career he has posted a 35-21 record, with a 1.09 WHIP and a 3.05 ERA. So while he may never again be as good as he was last season, he's still pretty damn good.
This is a tough call. Before his game 5 fiasco, Hendricks had been on a major roll. With the exception of a few really bad outings, Darvish has been solid all season, and if he's on. he can be damn near unhittable.
Edge - NONE
Bullpens
The Dodgers bullpen is elite. The Cubs pen clearly isn't.
Edge - LAD
Offenses
Both teams swing the bats well, and are pretty evenly matched
Edge - None
Defensive Runs Above Average
Edge - CHI slight
Road / Home
The Dodgers were 47-34 on the road, not bad, but the Cubs were a not much better 48-33 at home
Edge - NONE
Managers
CHI's Joe Maddon have a well earned reputation. LA's Dave Roberts has taken his team to the top. I'll give Maddon an experience edge, but that's it.
Edge - CHI slight
Conclusion: I know it's a must win game for the Cubs, but there's a reason that they're down 2-0. I'm a sucker for good pitching, and we have two solid starters in Darvish and Hendricks going tonight The big difference here is that the Dodgers have the much better bullpen. Bothe teams have potent offenses. The Cubs are good at home, but the Dodger are almost as good on the road. LA is, IMO is still the better team and the much better bullpen. This shapes up to be a close game late, and if so, we've gotta go with LA and their elite pen. We get the better team at a dog price!
Pick - LA ML (+107 for 3 units)