For what it's worth, yesterday we didn't like anything enough to bet. On Wednesday, we cashed two out of our three wagers as the Yankees and Red Sox both won for us. The Astros also wont their game but failed to cover the RL.
.On to today's games. We don't like very many games this time of year, and again, minimal write ups as the NFL is taking most of our time.
STL @ PITT
The game is very meaningful to the Cards who are only 1.5 games behind COL for the final NL Wildcard spot. The Pirates are playing for pride and looking to knock the Cards out.
On paper these teams look pretty evenly matched. In the bullpen, the Pirates have the better W-L record, but the Cards have the higher save rate, and better EWRA metrics. Offensively the Cards have an above average offense, while the Pirates would qualify as offensively challenged. The Pirates are slightly above 500 at home. while the Cards are slightly below 500 on the road. That leaves the two starting pitchers.
Michael Wacha is 12-8 with 15 quality starts and 2 near misses in his in his 28 starts. He also has 9 starts in which he's given up at least 4 earned runs. His 1.38 WHIP is high and his 4.02 ERA is slightly better than league average.
Ivan Nove's numbers are pretty similar. His record's not as good (11-14), but he has a couple of more quality starts 17, and 1 near miss in his 29 starts, with 10 in which he's given up at least 4 earned runs. His 1.24 WHIP is a little better than Wacha's, and his 4.20 ERA is a little worse.
Like I said, two pretty evenly matched teams. I lean to the team that actually needs the game and hits a lot better, but for just 1 unit.
Pick - STL ML (-149 for 1 unit)
NYY @ TOR
The Yankees still trail the Red Sox by 3 games for the AL East division, but they comfortably lead the AL Wildcard race. The Blue Jays season has been over for a while now.
The Jays have a pretty good bullpen, but the numbers say that the Yankees pen is better. Offensively, it's not close. NY has an elite offense and TOR is another offensively challenged team. At home, the Jays are 2 games above 500, while on the road, the Yankees are exactly 500. Not much of an edge for TOR there. That leaves the two starting pitchers.
This is probably Masahiro Tanaka's worst season as a Yankee. He hasn't been bad, but he has been more inconsistent than ever before. He's still 12-10 and has 16 quality starts in his 28 outings. He also has 9 starts in which he's given up at least 4 earned run. His WHIP is a solid 1.24, but his ERA is a high 4.73. He's been OK, but not great, with some really lousy starts thrown in.
As for Maro Estrada, like Tanaka, he has also been more inconsistent than in previous seasons. He's 9-8 and has also delivered 16 quality starts in his 31 outings, but he has 12 starts in which he's given up at least 4 earned runs. His 1.36 WHIP is higher than Tanaka's, as is his 4.94 ERA.
I give the pitching edge, albeit a small one to Tanaka, and coupled with the better bullpen and the much better offense, I think the Yankees have most of the edges here. They are also playing for something.
Pick - NYY ML (=164 for 2 units)
BOS @ CIN
The Red Sox lead the Yankees by 3 games and still haven't clinched the division. The Reds were really never in the playoff race, but they are nowhere near as bad as they were a year ago. They're young, hungry and having fun. They're short on pitching, but they can hit, and that makes them dangerous.
The Reds had by far the worst bullpen in baseball last season. They are much improved this season, but still not good. The Red Sox have an elite bullpen, and it gotten even better with the acquisition of former Mets closer Addison Reed. Offensively, the Red Sox had the best offense in baseball a uear ago, but this season's version rank below average in most of the offensive metrics. However, as strange as it may see, they actually rank much higher in runs per game. The Reds can just plain hit. Their offensive metrics are well above average, and unlike the Red Sox, so do their runs per game. That brings us to these two pitchers.
Rick Porcello won the AL Cy Young award a year ago. Everything went right for him, including the highest run support in baseball. This season, Porcello hasn't really pitched that much worse, but everything that went right last sseason, went wrong this season. He won 22 games last season, but he's 10-17 this season. He has 19 quality starts in his 31 outings. That's better than a 60% clip. He does have 11 starts in which he's given up at least 4 earned runs. His 1.38 WHIP is a little high, as is his 4.,48 ERA, but it's not aewful either.
As for Sal Romano, he's 5-6 with 5 quality starts in his 14 outings and 4 bad ones. His 1.42 WHIP is a little higher than Porcello's but his 4.07 ERA's a little better.
The Red Sox are still playing for something, and their bullpen is a huge plus. The Reds are still trying, they're having fun, and they can hit. That makes them dangerous.
I'll still go with the better team, that needs the game, but if the Reds get to Porcello, this one could go south fast, but if it stays close or the Sox get to Romao 1st, I like BOS' chances.
Pick - BOS ML (-132 for 1 unit)
LAA @ HTN
The Angels really need this game. Tehy trail MIN by 2.5 in the AL Wildcard race. The Astros have a;ready won their division, but are within 2.5 games of the Indians for home field in the playoffs.
This game pits Garrett Richards against Justin Verlander. Those two very good pitchers. The last time they met Verlander won 1-0. I expect another low scoring game.
Pick -1st 5 UNDER 4.5 (-125 for 2 units)