Its dusk vs. dawn tonight in San Francisco as 23-year old Aaron Nola takes the mound for the Phillies against the Giants who counter with 32-year old Jeff Samardzija. You might be tempted to look at the matchup as a wily veteran against a raw young talent, but taking a deep dive into the metrics reveals much more.
Aaron Nola, the dawn from LSU, has shown that he has got the stuff. Over 119 innings this year, Nola sports an FIP of 3.15 and ERA of 3.02 which ranks him number 10 (in both categories) out of 82 pitchers with at least 110 innings pitched. Add to that a season GB+K% rate of 75.6% and we have ourselves a young arm that has proven its season-long competency.
As Nola enters tonight’s contest his Pitch Value for the past 30 days as compared to the season read: Fast Ball 1.52 (up 92.4%), Curve 1.83 (up 25.3%), Change .86 (flat). You ask about the Giants batting pitch value over that same 30 days? Fast ball -0.46 (down 15%), Curve 0.01 (up from -0.6), Change -0.35 (up from -0.81). Although the Giants have improved their batting pitch value vs. the Change and Curve, they are both below league averages.
So what does this all mean? It means that Nola should be able to keep the already inept bats of the Giant silent through 7+ innings. The Phillies’ Bull Pen metrics suggest they can keep those bats numbed and closer Hector Neris is fresh and ready to go.
The Dusk in this equation, Samardzjia is having a very good year and ranks up there with the top starters in the league. Samardzjia ranks 15th out of those 82 pitchers in that more-important metric FIP (3.46) and 61st in ERA (4.74). Samardzija’s Pitch Values indicate that he has been effective with his fastball (1.24 up from -.12), and ineffective with his Slider (-0.89 down from 1.01) and Curve (-2.97 down from .32). Not surprising given his workload of 155 innings thus far
So what does this all mean? It means that Samardzija should be able to silent the already inept bats of the Phillies, but perhaps not quite as effective as Nola. The Giants’ Bull Pen metrics however reflect a story that looks a lot like a late game advantage for the Phillies that should begin sometime in inning 6.
Accordingly, we are recommending 2 tickets on this game. 959 - Phillies ML +107 and 1960 - Under 3.5 1st 5 Innings Phillies/Giants in the league’s #30 ranked ball park in both Home Runs and Runs scored. Open a free decision dashboard on matchupcenter.com in order to fully evaluate these plays.