For what it's worth, maybe things have turned around. We had another really good day yesterday. We put money on the Marlins and Rangers, and they both cashed!
The first game, was over early as the Marlins jumped all over poor Matt Cain for 4 in the 1at and cruised to a 8-1 route of the Giants. Jose Urena scattered 7 hits over 5 innings, but gave up just the 1 run.
It was a wild one in TEX. The Tigers got a solo leadoff HR from Ian Kinsler, off Cole Hamels in the 1st, and added another run in the 2nd to take a 2-0 lead. A 2-run shot off Anibal Sanchez tied it at 2-2 in the bottom of the 2nd. Another 2 run blast off Hamels by Mike Mahtook made it 4-2 DET in the 3rd. That was followed by yet another (you guessed it) e 2=run HR off Sanchez by Adrian Beltre, that ended Sanchez's night, and it was 4-4 at the end of 3. Unfortunately for the Tigers, that meant they had to go to their putrid bull very early, and with predictable results. A solo HR by Elvis Andrus gave TEX a 5-4 lead in the bottom of the 5th, and cashed our 1st 5 RL play on TEX. In the 6th, the Rangers added 4 more off the wretched Tiger pen to make it 9-4 TeEX in what would end up being a 12-6 Ranger win, and an easy ML cover for us. Anibal Sanchez only lasted 2.1 innings. Cole Hamels wasn't sharp and didn't throw a quality start, he worked his way out of a few jams and went 6 innings for his 8th win.
We were also very tempted by the Cardinals ML and the Dodgers RL, but ultimately passed. Good decision! While we like the pitching matchup in the Cards/Red Sox game, we didn't really want to fade a team playing as well as the Red Sox are right now. The Cards jumped out to a 4-0 lead but ended up losing 5-4. As for the Dodgers, the ML was around -300, so that wasn't appealing and we just don't like betting RLs. The Dodgers don't really care how much they win by. When we looked at the two pitchers, Rodon and Darvish, it closer than we expected. They both have similar skills, strengths and weaknesses. Darvish has been more consistent, but Rodon's pitched very well recently, so we passed. It was close, and the Dodgers ultimately won, but only by 1. Sometimes the best wagers are the ones we don't make.
The only thing that could have made yesterday better is if the Indians had played a cashed for us too. We'll they'll play this afternoon, and the good thing is that since thge pitchers are the same, the write up's mostly already done. Two games, three wagers and three winners, +3.18 units. We still could use a few more days like this.
Random observation #1: Yesterday, was a weird day. 7-6 was the operative score of the day:
Mil 7 PITT 6 - A wild one, PITT led 4-0 early but it was back and forth, Lots of opinions on this one in the forum, but I don't think anyone saw this coming
KC 7 OAK 6 - another wild one
SEA 7 BALT 6 - We couldn't fade Ubaldo because Marco Gonzalez looked even worse on paper.
CHI C 7 CIN 6 - Cubs get 4 in the 1st, but barely hold on. Homer Bailey v John Lackey PU!
Random Observation #2: Our favorite whipping boys: TB 2 TOR 3. What a shocker!
On to today's games. Here's the first one. We told you - basically the smae write up as yesterday.
CLEV @ MINN
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
W-L
|
QS/GS
|
QS %
|
4+ ER/GS
|
4+ ER %
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Carrasco - R
|
(11-5)
|
14/23
|
60.9%
|
(7/23)
|
30.4%
|
1.13
|
3.83
|
3.57
|
3.52
|
9.87
|
2.47
|
1.10
|
0.230
|
0.294
|
74.9%
|
Gibson - R
|
(6-9)
|
(4/20)
|
20.0%
|
(7/20)
|
35.0%
|
1.70
|
6.02
|
5.12
|
4.78
|
6.19
|
4.21
|
1.55
|
0.303
|
0.330
|
68.5%
|
Edge - CLEV
Bullpens
Edge -CLEV
Offenses
Team
|
R / PG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rqnk
|
CLEV
|
4.79
|
10
|
7.7
|
6
|
102
|
5
|
0.327
|
6
|
0.174
|
14
|
MINN
|
4.68
|
15
|
-20.1
|
16
|
97
|
13
|
0.320
|
16
|
0.157
|
23
|
Edge - CLEV
Defensive Runs Above Average
Edge - None
Road / Home
CLEV is a very good 34-25 on the road, while MINN is a poor 27-34 at home.
Conclusion: The Indians currently lead the Twins in the AL Central by 6 games. If the Twins are to have any chance to win this division, they can't afford to lose this series, and they've already lost the first game yesterday . The Twins are still very much alive in the AL wildcard race, trailing the Angels by just one game.
In this game, the Indians seem to hold all the cards. The Indians have one of the best bullpens in baseball, while the Twins have one of the worst. The Indian possess an above average offense, while the Twins rank well below average in most categories. The Indians are also a much better road team than the Twins are at home. That leaves just the two starting pitchers, and I think the Indian have an advantage there as well.
In a Cleveland rotation with inconsistent Trevor Bauer and very hittable Josh Tomlin, Carlos Carasco, Corey Kluber and maybe Danny Salazar, when he's healthy, have been the only starters that the Indians can really count on. For the most part, Carrasco has been great. He's started 23 games, and over 60% of them were quality starts. He also missed another by just 1 out. He has allowed 3 or less runs in 16 of his starts, and 2 or less in 15 of them. Every so often, out of nowhere, Carrasco still throws a clunker. He's thrown 7 this season, but that's still a 2 to 1 ratio of good starts to bad. Of the 65 qualifying starting pitchers, Carrasco's 11 wins rank 5th, his 1.139 WHIP ranks 8th. His 3.83 ERA ranks 25th. His 9.875 K/9 ranks 13th, and his 1.10 HR/9 ranks 21st. If you've bet on him every time he's pitched you've made money.
As for Kyle Gibson, he's been a huge disappointment for the Twins. For the most part Gibson has been pretty bad. He has just 4 quality starts, as opposed to 7 in which he allowed at least 4 earned runs. He walks a ton of batters. His 4.21 BB/9 ranks 90th among the 95 pitchers who have throw at least 100 innings this season. Between the 129 hits that he's allowed and the 49 walks that he's given up, his whopping 1.70 WHIP is hardly a surprise. As a result, he also doesn't go very deep into his starts. He gone 6 innings just 6 times, and is averaging just under 5.1 innings per start. As a result, the Twins have had to go to their woefully weak bullpen far too early and too often.
I can't believe this line, CLEV -115. It was CLEV -160 or more yesterday??? Am I missing something here? I'm probably jumping too fast, but I don't see this line being there later. The Indians are still the better team and Carrasco is still the better pitcher. I'm making this wager pitcher specific, just in case.
Pick - CLEV ML (-115 for 2 units)
CIN @ CHI C
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
W-L
|
QS/GS
|
QS %
|
4+ ER/GS
|
4+ ER %
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Feldman - R
|
(7-7)
|
(9/20)
|
45.0%
|
(8/20)
|
40.0%
|
1.34
|
4.43
|
4.40
|
4.05
|
7.69
|
2.93
|
1.34
|
0.264
|
0.305
|
73.7%
|
Lester - L
|
(8-7)
|
(15/25)
|
60.0%
|
(6/25)
|
24.0%
|
1.23
|
3.99
|
3.77
|
3.56
|
9.51
|
2.76
|
1.17
|
0.243
|
0.303
|
68.0%
|
Edge - CHI C
Bullpens
Edge - CHU C close
Offenses
Team
|
R / PG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rqnk
|
CIN
|
4.68
|
15
|
-17.5
|
13
|
97
|
13
|
0.327
|
7
|
0.185
|
7
|
CHI C
|
4.8
|
9
|
-17.5
|
12
|
97
|
13
|
0.325
|
10
|
0.186
|
6
|
Edge - None
Defensive Runs Above Average
Edge - None
Road / Home
CIN is a poor 21-40 on the road, CHI is 31-27 at home
Edge - CHI C
Conclusion: The Cubs still lead the very competitive NL Central, 1.5 games ahead of the Brewers, 2.5 games ahead of the Cardinals, and 5.5 games ahead of the Pirates. The only team in the division not in contention is the Reds who sit 14 games out.
In this game, most everything looks close, closer than you'd expect considering their respective standings. However, the offenses and defenses look to be even, and while I give the Cubs a bullpen edge, it's very slight. The Cubs are 4 games above 500 at Wrigley, while the Reds are 19 games below 500 on the road. I think the biggest difference here is the two starting pitchers.
I've never been overly impressed with Scott Feldman. He's a career back of the rotation journeyman, who can eat up inning, if healthy, with a high 45-50% GB rate. and mediocre K and BB rates. So far this season, Feldman has started 20 games and delivered 9 quality starts. However, in 8 of his starts, he's given up at least 4 earned runs, so he's a little more likely to be good than bad, but it's still pretty much a crapshoot. Feldman's 42.9% GB rate this season) is his lowest since 2011. He is making his 2nd start since coming off a 25-day stay on the DL becaused of right knee inflammation. His first start was less than stellar, as he gave up 7 hits and 3 runs in 4 innings of a 6-5 loss at MIL. Feldman's not awful, but he's not really good either.
Last season Jon Lester was very good and extremely consistent. This season, Lester, like the Cubs, has struggled more often. He is still throwing quality starts at better than a 60% clip, but he's also gotten hit hard in just under a quarter of his 25 starts. That's still a ratio of almost 3 to1, good starts to bad, but it's not as good as last season. His WHIP's solid at 1.23, as is his ERA at 3.99, and his metrics are even a little lower. He's still maintaining a good 47.6% GB rate and striking out over a batter per inning. His 68% strand rate is 6.9% lower than his career 74.9% rate. That tells me that Lester's had some bad luck with batted ball in play, and hasn't really pitched all that badly. Lester has also pitched better over the second half of the season. In his 6 starts since the AS break, he's 3-1, with a 0.93 WHIP, a 3.26 ERA, 5 quality starts and he has yet to allow more than e runs in any of them.
The Reds aren't the pushovers that they were last season. They can hit and they play tough. That makes them dangerous. By the same token, the Cubs don't look anything like last season's version either. They've struggled a whole lot more. this season. That said, I'm just not buying Scott Feldman, and I'm still high on Jon Lester. The ML's a ridiculously high -225, so we'll take a shot with the better starting pitcher, 1st 5 RL for a unit at a more reason able price.
Pick - CHI C 1st 5 RL (-150 for 1 unit)
It was a wild game in CHI. Unfortunately, Jon Lester has nothing. The Cubs rallied to tie it in the 5th, but they just can be trusted this season. One game for us tonight.
NYY @ NYM
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
W-L
|
QS/GS
|
QS %
|
4+ ER/GS
|
4+ ER %
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Severino - R
|
(9-5)
|
(14/23)
|
60.9%
|
(6/23)
|
26.1%
|
1.11
|
3.32
|
3.33
|
3.13
|
10.40
|
2.38
|
0.94
|
0.221
|
0.290
|
73.4%
|
Matz - L
|
(2-6)
|
(4/12)
|
33.3%
|
(5/12)
|
41.7%
|
1.47
|
5.54
|
4.68
|
4.54
|
6.25
|
2.42
|
1.56
|
0.295
|
0.320
|
70.4%
|
Edge - NYY
Bullpens
Edge - NYY
Offenses
Team
|
R / PG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rqnk
|
NYY
|
5.15
|
4
|
35.8
|
4
|
106
|
4
|
0.331
|
4
|
0.179
|
11
|
NYM
|
4.69
|
13
|
-21.6
|
17
|
100
|
8
|
0.323
|
12
|
0.195
|
4
|
Edge - NYY
Defensive Runs Above Average
Edge - NYM
Road / Home
The Yankees are just 29-33 on the road, nut the Mets are just 26-33 at home.
Edge: None
Conclusion: The Yankees trail the Red Sox by 4.5 games in the AL East, but still lead the AL Wildcard race. The disappointing Mets are pretty much dead as far as the postseason is concerned. They trail the Nationals by 18 gemes in the NL East and are also 12 back in the NL Wildcard race.
In this game, the Yankees have most of the edges. They have the much better bullpen, the better offense and are no worse on the road that the Mets are at homw. The numbers also say that they have the better starting pitcher.
Luis Severino is having a very good season. He's started 23 games for the Yankees, and over 60% of them have been quality starts. He's only had 6 starts (26.1%), in which he's allowed 4 earned runs or more. Severino is striking well over a batter per inning, and of the 65 qualifying starting pitchers, he ranks 7h in K/9. He isn't giving up the long ball either, ranking 12th among qualified starters. His 1.11 WHIP is superb ( ranked 6th among qualified starters), as is his 3.32 ERA (ranked 12th among qualified starters), and his metrics are every bit as good. His walks are a little high (2.38 BB/9), but not alarmingly so. There's really nothing wrong with Severino's performance this season.
Steven Matz has started 12 games for the Mets, and just 4 of them have been quality starts. He also has 5 starts in which he's given up at least 4 earned runs, and that's more bad starts than good, not a good thing. Matz's lack of strikeouts is another problem. He finished each of his first two seasons over 8.50 K/9, so his 6.25 K/9 this season is troubling. A 70.4% strand rate that's about 7% lower than his career mark, and a BABIP that's 7 points higher than his career mark, could explain why his advanced ERA metrics are about a full run lower than his bloated 5.54 ERA, bet even those aren't good. His walks, and HRs allowed are OK, but opposing batters are hitting just under .300 against him. Right now Steven Matz has a lot of issues and can't be relied on, and neither can the Mets in this game.
Pick - NYY 1st 5 RL (-127 for 1unit) and ML (-206 for 2 units)