For what it's worth, while yesterday was nowhere near as god as Monday, but we did make a little money, and coming off of a 6 day losing streak last week, we'll certainly take it. We only bet on three teams, OAK, CLEV and TB, and two of them came through.
Sonny Gray made his 114th career start for the A's as rumors of the Yankees' pursuit of him continue to heat up. In six strong innings against the Blue Jays, Gray did give up 4 runs, but he wasn't hit hard, but his own error and a wild pitch led to the 4 unearned runs. He struck out 9 and certainly looked like the kid who burst onto the scene in the 2013 postseason, with his quick arm action and ability to generate downward plane on his pitches, even though he's only 5-foot-10. His sinker was sharp, with five of his K's coming on the pitch He got strikeouts with his curveball, slider, changeup and fastball. He looked fully healthy, he's pitching well, he limits home runs ... and he's going to be traded, probably to the Yankees.
Gray probably deserved a better fate (and so did we), but OAK amazingly, couldn't get to Cesar Valzez?? Yes, that Cesar Valdez! Valdez, 32, hadn't pitched in the majors since 2010. For his career, Vadez had started a total of 3 games, with a 1-1 record, a 1.92 WHIP and a 6.92. The As did get 6 hits, but could get one when they needed it. They were just 1/8 with runners in scoring position. That's pathetic! Thanks to the A's offensive ineptitude, Valdez pitched a career-high 6 innings and won for the first time since 2010! We should have swept.
The Indians covered the 1st 5 RL and ML for us, but raised a lot more questions than they answered in doing so. They roughup up Angels starter Jesse Chavez for 7 runs in the 2nd inning to take a commanding 7-0 lead. CLEV starter Mike Celevinger, couldn't stand the prosperity and gave 6 runs back, and by he time he left in the 5th. CLEV reliever Nick Good, next gave up the tying run in the 6th, and it stayed that ay until The Indians finally beat the Angels on Edwin Encarnación's 11th-inning grand slam. An ugly win, but we'll take it.
Finally, the Rays had to hang on for dear life to get their first win in a week. They rode a 5 run 2nd against the underwhelming Wade Miley, and rookie Jacob Faria delivered another quality start to get us our 1st 5 RL cover, before tiring in the 8th, The unreliable TB bullpen let it get to 5-4 before sealing the deal.
We probably should've won win Sonny Gray and OAK, but we could have easily lost with CLEV as well. Boom line - it was a winning day and we'll take it. We finished +0.52 units for the day and sit at +12.32 units for the season
On t today's games.
BALT @ TB
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
W-L
|
QS/GS
|
QS %
|
4+ ER/GS
|
4+ ER %
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Jumenez - R
|
(4-6)
|
(4/15)
|
26.7%
|
(11/5)
|
73.3%
|
1.72
|
7.82
|
5.37
|
5.38
|
0.293
|
6.99
|
4.74
|
2.49
|
0.303
|
63.7%
|
Cobb - R
|
(8-6)
|
(11/20)
|
55.0%
|
(6/20)
|
30.0%
|
1.20
|
3.57
|
4.74
|
4.55
|
0.248
|
5.77
|
2.27
|
1.03
|
0.271
|
74.7%
|
Edge - TB
Bullpens
Edge - BALT
Offenses
Team
|
Runs / PG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
BALT
|
4.67
|
13
|
-25.2
|
17
|
95
|
14
|
0.318
|
16
|
0.174
|
14
|
-4.1
|
22
|
23.0%
|
24
|
6.8%
|
28
|
TB
|
4.59
|
18
|
37.9
|
5
|
105
|
5
|
0.324
|
12
|
0.184
|
11
|
15.4
|
3
|
25.0%
|
27
|
9.1%
|
9
|
Edge - TB
Defensive Runs Above Average
Edge - TB small
Road / Home
BALT is a poor 18-31 on the road, while TB is a decent 28-23 at home.
Edge - TB
Conclusion: The Rays and Orioles are both still in the AL East race. The Rays trail the Red Sox by just 2.5 and the Orioles are right behind them 6 back, and both are in the thick of the AL Wildcard race. In this game, like last night, the biggest difference between these two teams is the starting pitching.
Ubaldo Jimenez, simply put, isn't very good, and that's being charitable. Every so often he rears up and tosses a gem. He's had 4 of them this season. However he's also had 11 starts in which he allowed at least 4 earned runs, and in 9 of them it was 5 or more. That means that about 25% of Jimenez's starts will be good, and in about 75% of them, he'll suck. Those aren't good odds. His strikeout are low, and his walks are sky high. Of the 124 starting pitchers who have tossed at least 70 innings as a starter, Jimenez's 4.747 BB/9 ranks 1120th, which explains the sky high WHIP. His ERA's over 7 and his metrics are all well north of 5.
As for Alex Cobb, After a rough starts to the season, with no quality starts in his first 5 outings, has now 11 in his last 15 starts, including his last 3 and 7 of his last 8. Since the calendar turned from April to May, Cobb is 7-4 with a 1.17 WHIP, a 3.26 ERA, the 11 quality starts (73.3%) and just 3 starts in which he's allowed more than 4 earned runs (20%), Now those are good odds.
Cobb went under the knife (TJ surgery) in May of 2015, and did not pitch in a major league game again until September of '16. The rust looks like it's gone, and when healthy, Cobb has the pieces to be one of the better pitchers in baseball. He follows the recipe of most TB pitchers: fastballs up, changeups down, and keep the breaking ball in the back of the batters' minds. Cobb also keeps the ball in the yard.
The numbers say that the Oeioles have the slightly better bullpen, but the difference may actually be greater with closer Zack Britton back and rolling. Offensively, the Rays have the better numbers, even though BALT actually scores slightly more runs per game. At any rate it's close. Both teams are weak defensively. BALT is great at home, but pretty lousy on the road, while the Rays are now 5 games over 500 at home.
For me, like last night, this game still comes down to the two starting pitchers. There's just no way I can back Ubaldo Jimenez here or ever. However, I don't trust the TB bullpen either, and last night I saw nothing that changes that opinion, so this is a gain first 5 inning wager.
TB - 1st 5 RL (-120 for 2 units )
CIN @ NYY
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
W-L
|
QS/GS
|
QS %
|
4+ ER/GS
|
4+ ER %
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Bailey - R
|
(2-4)
|
(3-6)
|
50.0%
|
(3/6)
|
50.0%
|
2.05
|
8.56
|
5.19
|
4.89
|
0.361
|
6.59
|
4.28
|
1.98
|
0.398
|
64.5%
|
Severino - R
|
(6-4)
|
(12/19)
|
63.2%
|
(5/19)
|
26.3%
|
1.11
|
3.21
|
3.32
|
3.14
|
0.227
|
10.14
|
2.24
|
0.90
|
0.297
|
76.7%
|
Edge - NYY
Bullpens
Edge - NYY
Offenses
Team
|
Runs / PG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
CIN
|
4.59
|
17
|
-11.3
|
11
|
97
|
11
|
0.327
|
8
|
0.186
|
8
|
5.5
|
8
|
21.0%
|
13
|
8.3%
|
18
|
NYY
|
5.32
|
4
|
44.1
|
4
|
108
|
4
|
0.335
|
4
|
0.181
|
12
|
4.1
|
9
|
22.7%
|
20
|
9.9%
|
2
|
Edge - NYY
Defensive Runs Above Average
Edge - CIN
Road / Home
CIN is a lousy 16-31 on the road, while NY is an excellent 27-17 at home
Edge - NYY
Conclusion: The Yankees trail the Red Sox in the ultra competitive AL East by just 1 game, and lead in the AL Wildcard race, and with rumors swirling about the possible acquisition of Sonny Gray, there's certainly reason for optimism in the Bronx. The Reds are going nowhere this season. They started strong, but faded as Spring turned to Summer. They're a lot better than they were a year ago, but still not good. Their biggest problem is starting pitching. The Reds have used 14 different starting pitchers already this season, and none of the has been very good.
Other than a weak defense, the Yankees have almost every edge in this game. The Yankees have the better bullpen. Yes Aroldis Chapman and Delin Betances have struggled more than usual, so NY went out and added David Robertson to the mix. They may not be quite as good as expected, bu they are still better than their Reds counterparts. The Reds can hit, but the Yankees are hitting even better. The Yankees still have a lot more questions than answers in their starting rotation, but compared to the Reds, they're stacked. We'll consider these two startetrs.
It's bee rn a long hard road for Homer Bailey. From 2011 through 2014 Bailey was one of the better up and coming young pitchers in the game. However, He needed TJ surgery in May 2015 and was limited to eight starts in 2016. Bailey had made 6 starts for the Reds this season, and the result, although mixed, were still better than I expected. Three resulted in quality starts, including road games at COL and ARIZ. Thoe other 3 were awful. The Brewers lit him up for 6 hits (3 HRs) and 6 runs in just 3 inning in a home start, and the Nats crushed him twice, to the tune of 14 hits (2 HRs) and 16 runs over 5.2 innings in WASH and CIN. With Bailey, it's been feast or famine, no in between. His WHIP and ERA are sky high, his metriucs are hovering around 5.00. Bailey isn't striking out many, but he is walking over 4 per 9 innings, and opposing batters are hitting .361 against hoim.
Luis Severino is having a very good season. Over 63% of his outing have been quality starts, and he's only had 5 starts (26.3%), in which he's allowed 4 earned runs or more . Severino is striking out more than a batter per inning, and of the 70 qualifying starting pitchers, he ranks 11th in K/9. He isn't giving up the long ball either, ranking 9th among qualified starters. His Whip is superb ( ranked 9th among qualified starters), as is his ERA (ranked 11th among qualified starters), and his metrics are every bit as good. His walks are a little high, but not alarmingly so. There's really nothing wrong with Severino's performance.
In this one NY is the only way to go. I'm all in on NY here.
Pick - NYY 1st 5 RL (-156 for 2 units) and RL (-111 for 2 units)
TB finally gets 2 runs, ONE INNING TOO LATE for us. Ubaldo has one of his rare good starts, at least for 5 innings.
BOS @ SEA
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
W-L
|
QS/GS
|
QS %
|
4+ ER/GS
|
4+ ER %
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Sale - L
|
(12-4)
|
17/20
|
85.0%
|
(3/20)
|
15.0%
|
0.89
|
2.48
|
2.51
|
2.64
|
0.193
|
12.74
|
1.66
|
0.70
|
0.289
|
76.8%
|
Moore - R
|
(1-2)
|
(3/5)
|
60.0%
|
(2/5)
|
40.0%
|
1.17
|
5.70
|
5.82
|
6.06
|
0.267
|
3.90
|
0.90
|
2.70
|
0.235
|
72.7%
|
Edge - SEA
Bullpens
Edge - BOS
Offense
Team
|
Runs / PG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
BOS
|
4.66
|
16
|
-34.9
|
19
|
93
|
18
|
0.318
|
16
|
0.144
|
28
|
1.0
|
12
|
18.6%
|
3
|
9.2%
|
6
|
SEA
|
4.74
|
12
|
-4.6
|
8
|
102
|
8
|
0.320
|
14
|
0.156
|
21
|
15.7
|
30
|
20.6%
|
12
|
8.0%
|
21
|
Edge - SEA
Defensive Runs Above Average
Edge - BOS
Road / Home
BOS is 26-29 on the road, and SEA is 30-25 at home
Edge - SEA
Conclusion: BOS still leads the super competitive AL East by 1 game over NY and 2.5 ahead of TB, but they really haven't played all that well. I would have expected them to have a more substantial lead. Instead they find themselves in a real dogfight, that they could well lose. SEA sits in 2nd place in the AL West but 17 behind the Astros. However they are in the thick of the AL Wildcard race just 2.5 out.
This season, along with the currently injured Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and Corey Kluber, Chris Sale is one of the top 4 pitchers in baseball. Among the 70 qualifying starting pitchers, Sale ranks 2nd in wins, 3rd in WHIP, 3rd in ERA, 1st in K/9, 5th in BB/9, and45th in HR/9. Like his ERA, his advanced ERA metrics are all well below 3.00, and opposing batters are only hitting .193 against him.
As for Andrew Moore, we have a very small sample size. H's only started 5 games. He delivered quality starts in the first three, v DET, KC and OAK. However, in his last two, he gave up 5 runs at the White Sox and again v the Yankees. Overall, he's given up 32 hits and 19 earned runs in his 30 innings, with 13 Ks and just 3 BBs. He has however been somewhat HR prone, giving up 9 over his 5 starts. His WHIP is solid. but his ERA an metrics are all well over 5.00, and he's striking out less than 4 per 9 innings.
In this game, despites last night's loss and blown save, the bullpen edge still goes to the Red Sox who have one of the top units in the game. However the offensive edge clearly goes to SEA. Unlike last season BOS has struggled to consistently put up runs. BOS is a little better defensively, while SEA is better at home than BOS is on the road.
I don't trust the Red Sox to score a lot, which precludes a RL wager, but you have to back Sale and just hope they give him some runs.
Pick - BOS 1st 5 RL (-140 for 2 units) and ML (-200 for 2 units)
LAA @ CLEV
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
W-L
|
QS/GS
|
QS %
|
4+ ER/GS
|
4+ ER %
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Nolasco
|
(4-11)
|
(9/20)
|
45.0%
|
(8/20)
|
40.0%
|
1.38
|
5.13
|
4.51
|
4.60
|
0.277
|
7.37
|
2.48
|
2.08
|
0.298
|
76.5%
|
Carrasco
|
(10-4)
|
(12/19)
|
63.2%
|
(5/19)
|
26.3%
|
1.10
|
3.62
|
3.48
|
3.42
|
0.228
|
10.0
|
2.38
|
1.15
|
0.292
|
77.2%
|
Edge - CLEV
Bullpens
Edge - CLEV close
Offenses
Team
|
Runs / PG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
LAA
|
4.1
|
26
|
-54.8
|
24
|
89
|
24
|
0.299
|
28
|
0.143
|
29
|
-6.0
|
24
|
20.0%
|
8
|
8.3%
|
18
|
CLEV
|
4.87
|
8
|
14.6
|
6
|
104
|
6
|
0.329
|
6
|
0.175
|
13
|
-1.4
|
14
|
18.5%
|
2
|
9.6%
|
4
|
Edge - CLEV
Defensive Runs Above Average
Edge - LAA
Road / Home
LA is a weak 22-29 on the road, but CLE is a little better 26-24 at home.
Edge - CLEV slight
Conclusion: Based on talent alone, the Indians should be running away with the AL Central, but the Royals are nipping at their heels, just 1.5 back. I think CLEV has underperformed to date. The Angels are now 4th in the AL west, and trail HTN by 18.5, but are only 4 out in the AL Wildcard race. Coming off a fortunate win last night, CLEV appears to have most of the edges here. The biggest is these two starting pitchers.
Every so often Ricky Nolasco produces a game that makes you wonder why this guy isn't better than he is. He's had 9 of them this season. However, he's also had 8 in which he allowed at least 4 earned runs. After over 10 years pitching in the big leagues, it’s safe to say that Nolasco is a below average starting pitcher who can eat up innings, but doesn’t do much else. He’s not going to rack up the Ks like he once did earlier in his career with the Marlins (9.49 K/9 in 2009). He struggles to keep the ball in the ballpark. Of 70 qualifying starting pitchers this season, Nolasco's 2.08 HR/9 ranks 69th/. Hiis 1.38 WHIP ranks 47th and his 5.13 ERA ranks 50th. He can still surprise from time to time, but there's really not much to like about Ricky Nolasco.
In a Cleveland rotation with underachieving Danny Salazar, Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin, Car;os Carasco and Corey Kluber have been the oinly two starters the Indians can really count on. For the most part, Carrasco has been great. He's started 19 games, and over 63% of them were quality starts. He missed another by just 1 out. He has allowed 3 out less runs in 14 of his starts, and 2 or less in 13 of them. Every so often, out of nowhere, Carrasco still does throw an occasional clunker. He's thrown 4 this season, but they're rare. Of the 70 qualified starting pitchers, Carrasco's 1.`0 WHIP ranks 5th. His 3.62 ERA ranks 24th. His 10.0 K/9 ranks 12th, and his 1.15 HR/9 ranks 27th. If you've bet on him every time he's pitched you've made money.
The Indians also have the better bullpen, but the numbers say that the Angle pen isn't really that much worse. Another big edge is on offense. The numbers say that the Indians have a well above average offense, while the Angels are well below average. Defensively, both teams are mediocre, CLEV a little more so. LA is a weak road team, but CLEV's just two games over 500 at home.
Odds are that the Indian to get to Ricky Nolasco, and Carols Carraso throws a solid game, and that's how I'm betting it.
PICK - CLEV ML (-214 for 2 units) and 1st 5 RL (-144 for 1 units)
CHI C @ CHI WS
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
W-L
|
QS/GS
|
QS %
|
4+ ER/GS
|
4+ ER %
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Arrieta - R
|
(9-7)
|
(10/20)
|
50.0%
|
(7/20)
|
35.0%
|
1.26
|
4.11
|
4.11
|
4.02
|
0.241
|
8.76
|
3.00
|
1.26
|
0.288
|
68.4%
|
Shields - R
|
(2-2)
|
(2/9)
|
22.2%
|
(4/9)
|
44.4%
|
1.63
|
5.79
|
5.68
|
6.24
|
0.271
|
6.56
|
4.82
|
2.31
|
0.275
|
77.2%
|
Edge - CHI C
Bullpens
Edge - CHI C
Offenses
Team
|
Runs / PG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
CHI C
|
4.68
|
14
|
-16.7
|
14
|
96
|
12
|
0.324
|
12
|
0.187
|
7
|
1.1
|
11
|
21.7%
|
17
|
9.6%
|
4
|
CHI WS
|
4.39
|
22
|
-37.8
|
21
|
92
|
20
|
0.312
|
23
|
0.155
|
24
|
-3.3
|
20
|
21.9%
|
18
|
6.7%
|
29
|
Edge - CHI C
Defensive Runs Above Average
Edge - CHI C
Road / Home
The Cubs are 25-25 on the road, while the White Sox are 19-23 at home
Conclusion. The Cubs are in the thick of the NL Central race, trailing MIL by only a half a gme. The Whit Sox have been selling off all season and sit at the bottom of the AL Central.
In this game the Cubs have every conceivable edge.
In his Cy Young Award winning 2015 season, and for the first half of 2016, Jake Arrieta was absolutely dominant. That's no longer the case. Yes, Arrieta has thrown 10 quality starts (50%), but he also has 7 outings in which he's allowed at least 4 earned runs. His 1.260 WHIP isn't awful, but it's his highest since 2012, and higher than his career 1.17. The same could be said about his 4.11 ERA which is .46 higher than his career 3.65. He still striking out almost a batter per inning, but he's also walked 38. His HRs allowed isn't setting off alarm bells, but it is up, and his 45.6% GB rate is the lowest it's been in 4 years. Arrieta has not been awful, or even bad. He's just not anywhere near as good or consistent as he was just 1-2 years ago, and at 31, that just may be the new normal for Jake Arrieta.
James Shields, Shields, 35, has been an almost auto-fade for me, for several years now. He missed two months because of a strained right back muscle. Since returning Shields has made 6 starts. In those 6 outing he allowed 42 hits and 27 earned runs in 30 innings, with 18 Ks,15 BBs, and just 1 quality start. That translates to a 1.90 WHIP and an 8.10 ERA. Shields hasn't been a quality pitcher since 2015, and I see no reason to expect much improvement or to stop fading him.
The Cubs have the the better everything in this one. Arrieta may not be any good as he was two years ago but he's still a quality starting pitcher. James Shields isn't and hasn't been for some time now.
PICK - CHI C 1st 5 RLL (-175 for 2 units) and full game RL (-155 for 1 unit)
MIA @ TEX
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
W-L
|
QS/GS
|
QS %
|
4+ ER/GS
|
4+ ER %
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Urena
|
(8-4)
|
(7/15)
|
46.7%
|
(3/15)
|
20.0%
|
1.24
|
4.05
|
5.20
|
5.56
|
0.223
|
6.41
|
3.60
|
1.35
|
0.237
|
75.1%
|
Darvish
|
(6-8)
|
(15/21)
|
71.4%
|
(4/21)
|
19.0%
|
1.12
|
3.44
|
3.82
|
3.76
|
0.215
|
9.65
|
2.90
|
1.22
|
0.264
|
78.4%
|
No Analysis
1Pick TEX 1st 5 RL (-147 for 1 unit)