For what it's worth, Thanks to the Dodgers blowing a 3 run lead with two out in the 9th, a good day became a bad day, as we ended up down 3.43 units. Our side (CHI C ML, LAD 1st 5, and CLEV 1st 5 and full game) all cashed. However out totals plays on the MIA/CIN, and the As/Mets didn't. ended yesterday with a loss of about 3 initsare still, in the words of a country song "Lost like a ball in high weeds" The Cubs coundn't score a run in
On to tonight's games. This is the only early one we'll be on. but we'l have some late games later.
HTN @ PHIL
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
W-L
|
QS/GS
|
QS %
|
4+ ER/GS
|
4+ ER %
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Peacock - R
|
(8-1)
|
(4/10)
|
40.0%
|
(2/20)
|
20.0%
|
1.28
|
2.92
|
3.84
|
3.60
|
0.203
|
12.21
|
4.82
|
0.17
|
0.317
|
76.6%
|
Velasquez - R
|
(2-5)
|
(3/11)
|
27.3%
|
(4/11)
|
36.4%
|
1.39
|
5.14
|
4.25
|
4.15
|
0.258
|
9.16
|
3.54
|
1.93
|
0.297
|
71.2%
|
Edge - HTN
Bullpens
Edge - HTN
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
HTN
|
128.7
|
1
|
130
|
1
|
0.362
|
1
|
0.211
|
1
|
12.0
|
27
|
17.3%
|
1
|
8.3%
|
18
|
PHIL
|
-81.6
|
29
|
85
|
27
|
0.305
|
27
|
0.155
|
24
|
-9.4
|
25
|
22.7%
|
20
|
8.0%
|
21
|
Edge - HTN
Defensive Runs Above Average
Edge - PHIL
Road v Home
HTN is a stellar 35-12 on the road, whilr PHIL is just 18-26 at home
Edge - HTN
Conclusion: The Astros have most of the edges in this game. Well start with the two starting pitchers.
Brad Peacock is still an enigma to me. I guess we could say he's been very good. He's 8-1, but he only has 4 quality starts in the 10 games that he's started. Of course he's also only allowed more than 4 earned runs twice in those 10 starts. Peacock doesn't go deep in most of his tarts, averaging just over 5 innings per start, but he's gone 6 in two of his last 3 starts, and 7 in the third. His strikeout rate is incredibly good. He's fanned 93 in just under 69 innings, but he also walks a lot of batter, 38. It hasn't hurt him yet, but it certainly could. His WHIP is still solid, his ERA is excellent, and his metrics are also very good. He doesn't give up the long ball, and opponents are bare hitting .200 against him.
In his last start Vincent Velasquez allowed 2 runs (1 earned) on 4 hits and 1 walk over 6 innings, with 64 Ks, but didn't factor into the decision. It was a solid return from the DL ( right elbow flexor strain) for Velasquezr, who was held to only 79 pitches because of the long layoff. He hadn't pitched for the Phillies since May 30.
Before hitting the DL Velasquez really struggled. He only threw 2 quality starts, and none since late April. He also had 4 starts in which he allowed at least 4 earned runs. His WHIP is up there as are his ERA and metrics. Velasquez has good stuff, but is not a good pitcher, at least not yet, but he may well be someday. His spin rates aren't great. His curve and fastball are just a tick above average. However, he's got above-average rise on a fastball that's a mile per hour above average for a righty, great movement on a hard change, an average slider s, and a curve with a lot of drop for averaging 79 mph, but he still hasn't put it all together.
The bullpen matchup is a mismatch. HTN has an elite pen, while the Phillies have one of the worst. The same holds true for these two offenses. HTN is loaded and the PHIL's is anemic. HTN is also a great road team, while PHIL is below .500 at home.
PHIL can win this game if Velasquez throws a gem or if Peacock gets lit up, but I think the opposite is more likely. I bet this one this moring, at a very reasonable price. It's gone up since.
Pick - HTN ML (-138 for 2 units)
ATL @ ARIZ
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
W-L
|
QS/GS
|
QS %
|
4+ ER/GS
|
4+ ER %
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Dickey - R
|
(6-6)
|
(10/19)
|
52.6%
|
(6/19)
|
31.6%
|
1.36
|
4.14
|
5.10
|
5.08
|
0.256
|
5.98
|
3.38
|
1.30
|
0.276
|
74.9%
|
Greinke - R
|
(11-4)
|
(10/19)
|
52.6%
|
(4/19)
|
21.1%
|
1.05
|
2.97
|
3.34
|
3.23
|
0.222
|
9.94
|
1.93
|
1.19
|
0.279
|
77.4%
|
Edge - ARIZ
Bullpens
Edge - ARIZ
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
ATL
|
-56.0
|
25
|
89
|
24
|
0.313
|
22
|
0.150
|
26
|
-2.2
|
17
|
19.8%
|
7
|
7.3%
|
26
|
ARIZ
|
-13.1
|
12
|
93
|
18
|
0.327
|
8
|
0.185
|
10
|
20.4
|
1
|
23.6%
|
25
|
8.9%
|
13
|
Edge - ARIZ
Defensive Runs Above Average
Edge - ARIZ
Road / Home
ATL is a decent 24-25 on the road, but ARIZ is an excellent 34-17 at home.
Conclusion: Anyone who thinks ATL is an automatic easy win is just plain crazy. This team is playing hard and they're finding ways. However, facings this ARIZ team at home is not easy. Let's start with these two starting pitchers.
R.A. Dickey has pitched much better than I expected him to. It's hard to believe that Dickey did win the NL Cy Young award five years ago (with the Mets. But thhat was 5 years ago and he's now 42! Last season with TOR, Dickey was pretty bad, with a 10-15 record with a 1.37 WHIP and a 4.46 ERA in 169.2 innings. His advanced metrics, a 4.81 SIERA and a 4.76 xFIP were equally bad.
Now with ATL, the 42 year old knuckleballer has pitched pretty well. He has 10 quality starts in his 19 outings, and has allowed more than 4 earned runs only 6 times. The book on Dickey is pretty straight forward. He doesn't strike out very many, 78 on 117.1 innings. He walks a lot,44. As a result, his WHIP's a little high, his ERA is slightly above 4.00 and his metrics are a full run higher. But when that knuckler's floating, like it can, Dickeyhe can be damn tough to hit with authority. We could say that Dickey lives on the edge, with a lot of baserunners, but such is the life of a knuckleballer. At 42, Dickey is still a durable innings eater, who goes out every five days, and gives you 5-6 innings. His talents have definitely declined, but he can still throw that knuckler, and when that knuckler's dancing anything (good or bad) can happen.
Zack Greinke is the unquestioned ace of this ARIZ staff, and he's pitched very well. He's produced 10 quality starts, and of the 710 qualifying pitchers, Greinke ranks 4th in Wins, 5th in WHIP, 6th in ERA and 13th in K/9. Greinke'a also coming off a poorer than usual start in which he gave up 7 hit and 4 earned runs over 7 innings, and I've always liked good pitchers coming off poor outings, so I'm inclined to back Greinke here.
Allpof the other edge lean to ARIZ. I don't particularly like their biullpen, but the numbers say they're better than aTL's. Offensively, the Dbacks are well above average, and the Braves are not. And finally although the Braves are actually decent on the road, the Dbacks are great at home.
Knucleballer are inherently unpredictable, and that makes Dickey dangerous. The ARIZ may be better but I have little faith in their 40 year closer Rodney, but ARIZ is still the bettter team and should find a way. I bet this one this morning. The price is steeper, but since then, it's gotten steeper.
PICK - ARIZ ML (-180 for 2 units)
BOS @ SEA
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
W-L
|
QS/GS
|
QS %
|
4+ ER/GS
|
4+ ER %
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Rodriguez - L
|
(4-2)
|
(7/11)
|
63.6%
|
(2/11)
|
18.2%
|
1.22
|
3.72
|
4.06
|
4.29
|
0.227
|
9.78
|
3.44
|
1.38
|
0.280
|
79.4%
|
Paxton - L
|
(9-3)
|
(9/16)
|
56.3%
|
(3/16)
|
18.8%
|
1.14
|
3.05
|
3.66
|
3.45
|
0.218
|
10.21
|
2.96
|
0.48
|
0.299
|
73.5%
|
Edge - SEA
Bullpens
Edge - BOS
Offfense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
BOS
|
-34.9
|
19
|
93
|
18
|
0.318
|
16
|
0.144
|
28
|
1.0
|
12
|
18.6%
|
3
|
9.2%
|
6
|
SEA
|
-4.6
|
8
|
102
|
8
|
0.320
|
14
|
0.156
|
21
|
-15.7
|
30
|
20.6%
|
12
|
8.0%
|
21
|
Edge - SEA
Defensive Runs Above Average
Edge - BOS
Road / Home
BOS is 26-27 on the road, and SEA is 28-25 at hoime
Edge - SEA small
Conclusion:
This season, Rodriguez has only started 11 games for the Red Sox, and just 1 since June 1 because of a stint on the DL list with a knee injury. The lefty struggled early in that first start, but settled in and fared OK (5 hits and 3 runs in 5.1 innings) considering his lengthy absence. Rodriguez has a good WHIP and ERA, but his ERA metrics are about a full run higher. He does have 7 quality starts for thge season, with just 2 bad outings. He's alsostriking out a batter per inning. His walks are high, but that the only real trouble sign. It's probably still too soon to see if Rodriguez is back to where he was.
James Paxton is having a breakout season. Over 56% of his outing have been quality starts, and he's only had 3 bad starts (18.8%), in which he's allowed 4 or more earned run. . He's striking out well over a batter per inning (197 in 94.1 IP), and while his 31 walks are a little high, they're not in any sense alarming. He's allowed less hits (77) than innings pitched (941.1), and opponents are only hitting .219 against him. It's very rare that a mechanical change increases both velocity and command, but that's exactly what happened for Paxton last season. He closed the season with a 3.19 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in his final 67.2 IP, and that hot finish paired with his newfound velocity has propelled Paxton to a very good season, so far.
In this game the bullpen edge goes to the Red Sox who have on of the top units in the game. However the offensive edge clearly goes to SEA. Unlike last season BOS has struggled to consistently put up runs. BOS is a little better defensively, while sEA is a little better at home than BOS is on the road.
Pick - SEA 1st 5 RL (-113 for 1 unit)
NYM @ SD
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
W-L
|
QS/GS
|
QS %
|
4+ ER/GS
|
4+ ER %
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
deGrom - R
|
(11-3)
|
(13/19)
|
68.4%
|
(5/19)
|
26.3%
|
1.18
|
3.37
|
3.58
|
3.37
|
0.228
|
10.31
|
2.86
|
1.29
|
0.289
|
80.8%
|
Richard - L
|
(5-10)
|
(9/20)
|
45.0%
|
(10/29)
|
50.0%
|
1.60
|
5.35
|
4.33
|
4.05
|
0.321
|
6.18
|
2.64
|
1.21
|
0.361
|
70.3%
|
Edge - NYM
Bullpens
Edge - SD small
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
NYM
|
-5.6
|
9
|
102
|
8
|
0.326
|
11
|
0.196
|
2
|
-14.3
|
29
|
19.7%
|
6
|
8.6%
|
16
|
SD
|
-65.1
|
28
|
84
|
29
|
0.299
|
28
|
0.163
|
19
|
12.5
|
4
|
25.6%
|
30
|
7.8%
|
23
|
Edge - NYM
Defensive Runs Above Average
Edge - NYM
Road / Home
NY is 20-23 on the road, and SD is 24-23 at home
Edge - SD slight
Conclusion: The Mets are trying to tread water, while awaiting the return of ace Noah Syndergaard and Matt Harvey. The Padres are going nowhere. The Mets have a bid edge at starting pitcher.
With the exception of 2 really bad starts, at the beginning of June, Jacob deGroms been great. Since those 2 lousy outing he's delivered 6 quality starts, all 6 with1 or fewer runs allowed, in 7 outings, and in the 7th he went 7 innings and gave up just 4 runs. That stretch totaled 53.2 innings with 34 hits, 9 earned runs, 50 Ks and 10 BBs He's also striking out well over a batter per inning. The only real blemishes on deGroms record are his 40 walks. His 2.86 BB/9 is q little higher than his career 2.40 mark. His advanced metrics are consistent with his solid ERA and WHIP.
Clayton Richard has struggled some this season. He does have the 9 quality starts, so jhe's certainly capable, but he also has 10 4+ earned run outings. His WHIP WHIP's up there at 1.60 and his ERA is over 5.00. His metrics are better, but still over 4.00. He doesn't get a lot of strikeouts but he give up a fair share of walks, and he's getting hit to the tune of a .321 BAA.
The Mets also have the much better offense. Their bullpen is weak but so is SD's and while thy're not a good road team, SD is an equally poor home team. This looks like a game the Mets should win.
PICK - NYM 1st 5 RL (-118 for 1 units) and ML (-160 for 2 units)
PITT @ SF
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
W-L
|
QS/GS
|
QS %
|
4+ ER/GS
|
4+ ER %
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Cole - R
|
(7-7)
|
(14/20)
|
70.0%
|
(5/20)
|
25.0%
|
1.24
|
4.18
|
3.98
|
3.79
|
0.258
|
8.06
|
2.01
|
1.49
|
0.295
|
75.6%
|
Cain - R
|
(3-8)
|
(6/18)
|
33.3%
|
(7/13)
|
53.8%
|
1.65
|
5.51
|
5.43
|
5.18
|
0.305
|
5.42
|
3.55
|
1.31
|
0.329
|
69.6%
|
Edge - PITT
Bullpens
Edge - PITT small
Offense
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
PITT
|
-51.1
|
22
|
90
|
22
|
0.311
|
24
|
0.147
|
27
|
-2.8
|
19
|
18.6%
|
3
|
9.0%
|
12
|
SF
|
-101.0
|
30
|
80
|
30
|
0.291
|
30
|
0.129
|
30
|
0.1
|
13
|
19.4%
|
5
|
7.5%
|
25
|
Edge - PITT
Defensive Runs Above Average
Edge - SF
Road / Home
PITT is 22-27 on the road, and SF is 20-28 at home
Edge - None
Conclusion: Hey, PITT is in contention and SF's in the cellar.
Gerrit Cole's season has been inconsistent and incredibly streaky. After a weak first start at BOS, Cole tossed 8 straight quality starts. However his next 4 starts were really bad (19.1 IP, 39 H, 23 ER, 16 Ks 5 BBs). That was followed by 4 bad outing, then 3 more quality starts, a bad one, and 3 more quality starts. However, when you put it all together, 70% of Cole's outings have been quality starts, and only 25% have been bad. That's better than a 2 to1 ratio
As for Matt Cain, he should be headed to the proverbial glue factory soon, or at least to the bullpen/ For the most part, Can has struggled this season. He has just 6 quality starts,labout a thrird of his starts, and just 2 since May 26. He also has 7 starts in which he allowed at least 4 runs, 6 in which it was 5 runs, and 3 with at least 7 runs allowed Cain has allowed more hits (121) than innings pitched (96.2), and opponents are hitting over .300 against him. He's also walked another 40, which explains the whopping high WHIP. His ERA and ERA metrics are all over 5.00.
There's not much to like about Matt Cain anymore. Once upon a time, Cain was once of the league’s premier workhorses, posting a 3.38 ERA in an average of 209 innings per season from 2006-13, but injuries have decimated the latter portion of his career. After hitting the DL just once in his first eight seasons, he has eight trips in his last three. He hasn’t reached even 100 innings in any of the last three seasons.
As amazing as it seems, PITT also has the better bullpen and offense. In this game, PITTT is the better tem. I bet this early thius morning
PITT ML (-145 (for 2 units) and PPITT 1st 5 RL (-113 for 1 unit)