For what it's worth, Thanks to the Red Sox, we are still, in the words of a country song "Lost like a ball in high weeds" We've never felt so lost. The Cubs coundn't score a run in the 1st 5, and neither could the Royals against Pelfreym, a complete piece of garbage. Fortunately the Cubs came bck to win, and the Royal finally got to Pelfrey and company to salvage something. However thanks to Price and BOS squandering a 3-0 lead after 4, we lost $ again. We'll update our units tomorrow,
On to today's games.
TOR @ CLEV
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
W-L
|
QS/GS
|
QS %
|
4+ ER/GS
|
4+ ER %
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Happ - L
|
(3-6)
|
(6/12)
|
50.0%
|
(2/12)
|
16.7%
|
1.26
|
3.55
|
4.02
|
3.97
|
8.45
|
2.18
|
1.91
|
0.250
|
0.276
|
83.6%
|
K;luber - R
|
(7-3)
|
(9/15)
|
60.0%
|
(3/15)
|
20.0%
|
0.96
|
2.86
|
2.76
|
2.57
|
12.07
|
2.15
|
0.89
|
0.199
|
0.285
|
75.0%
|
Edge - CLEV
Edge - CLEV close
Offenses
Team
|
Runs PG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
CLEV
|
4.79
|
11
|
8.6
|
6
|
102
|
8
|
0.327
|
8
|
0.174
|
13
|
-1.6
|
15
|
18.5%
|
2
|
9.5%
|
5
|
TOR
|
4.16
|
26
|
-50.4
|
22
|
92
|
21
|
0.312
|
24
|
0.164
|
18
|
-12.7
|
28
|
20.8%
|
13
|
8.9%
|
12
|
Edge - CLEV
Defensive Runs Above Average
Edge - CLEV
Road v Home
CLEV is 27 -21 on the road, TOR is 22-24 at home
Edge - CLEV
At first glance, this game screams CLEV. CLEV's leading the AL central and TOR's last in the AL East. It's Corey Kluber v JA Happ, Kluber right? The TOR bullpen is pretty good, but the CLEV bullpen is really good. The TOR offense is well below aveage, while the Indian bats may be flaky, but they do rank in the top 10 pretty much across the board. Even defensively, CLEV ranks a little higher, and The Idians have a winning road record, while TOR has losing home record. Why consider TOR here?
Because of a sore elbow, JA Happ missed most of the 1st 2 months of the season. Happ won 20 games for the Blue Jays last season, and big things were expected this season. He was rusty in his first 2 outings, after returning from the DL (9.1 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, with 7 Ks, 6 BBs and 4 HRs). However, since June 11, in his 8 starts, Happ is 3-2 with a 1.28 WHIP, a 2.43 ERA, 35 Ks, 10 BBs and only 6 HRs. Happ has noaThey play i a weak division allowed more than 3 runs in any of those 8 starts, and in 7, it was 2 or less. He's certainly looked a lot more like yesterday's 20 game winner.
As for Corey Kluber, this is what Kluber has done since returning from a month long stint on the DL on June 1. In 9 starts, he's 4-1, allowing 35 hits, 11 earned runs, 94 Ks, and 11 BBs in 63.1 innings. That translates to a 0.73 WHIP and a 1.56 ERA.
I don't thrust these Indians. They play in a weak division. They should be running away wi this, but they're only a game and a half up on MINN and KC. I don't trust their manager. Right before the AS break in a Sunday Night game v. DET, he pulled Kluber after 5 innings in a 1-1 game. To that point Kluber had allowed just 3 hits and 1 run? CLEV eventually lost. I'm even wondering about the vaunted CLEV bullpen. They lost that Sunday night game and even yesterday, they blew a 1-10 lead in the 8th before finally winning it in the 10th. They've only blown 5 games this season, but they have lost 13. The problem is that I trust TOR even less.
The other problem is that I'm ice cold, and I can't give you a good reason why. I'm not doing anything differently, and I'm not going to. I'm too old and to stubborn to change. CLEV is still the better team here, and although Happ's been better than what the numbers show, Kluber's still the better pitcher. So I'm on CLEV here.
PICK - CLEV 1st 5 RL (134 for 1 unit) and ML ((-185 for 2 units high but still cheaper than it will end up so Ii bet it this morning), and 1st 5 Under 4.5 (-125 for 1 unit)
MIA @ CIN
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
W-L
|
QS/GS
|
QS %
|
4+ ER/GS
|
4+ ER %
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Koehler
|
(1-4)
|
(2/11)
|
9.0%
|
(5/11)
|
45.5%
|
1.70
|
7.92
|
5.30
|
5.43
|
0.290
|
7.56
|
4.86
|
2.16
|
0.315
|
62.3%
|
Romano
|
(1-2)
|
(0/3)
|
0.0%
|
(1/3)
|
|
2.08
|
7.50
|
5.96
|
6.14
|
0.306
|
8.25
|
7.50
|
1.50
|
0.361
|
64.7%
|
Edge - NONE
Bullpens
Edge - NONE
Offenses
Team
|
Runs PG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
MIA
|
4.64
|
17
|
-31.9
|
20
|
94
|
17
|
0.319
|
17
|
0.157
|
22
|
-5.4
|
23
|
20.4%
|
11
|
7.1%
|
27
|
CIN
|
4.59
|
19
|
-10.9
|
12
|
97
|
11
|
0.327
|
8
|
0.186
|
7
|
5.4
|
8
|
21.1%
|
14
|
8.2%
|
20
|
Edge - CIN small
Defensive Runs Above Average
CIN slight
MIA is 22-25 on the road, CIN is 24-28 at home
Edge - None
Conclusion: This game screams over, almost too much. The bullpens are both below average. CIN appears to have the better bats, but, its close. Neither is great, but neither in awful either. Both are solid defensivively. MIA's a below average road team, but so are the Reds at home. Then we get to these two starting pitchers and it gets ugly fast.
These two guys are a combined 2-6. Koehler has 1 whopping 1.70 WHIP, Romano top it with a WHIP of over 2.00. They both have ERA's over 7.00, and their metric are all around 6.00. Koehler averages over 5 walks per 9, and Romano well over 7. Opposing batters are hitting around .300 against both. They have 2 quality starts in 14 combined outings.
This is so obvious, you might call it a trap. I don't believe in traps, but I do believe the books know what they're doing so these total are probably a little inflated. I think the lines will only go up so I bet th full game early. I still this game goes over, but what the hell do I know.
{Pick - 1st 5 OVER 6 (-104) and full game (+106)
OAK @ NYM
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
W-L
|
QS/GS
|
QS %
|
4+ ER/GS
|
4+ ER %
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Gossert
|
(1-5)
|
(3/7)
|
42.9%
|
(3/7)
|
42.9%
|
1.37
|
5.79
|
4.61
|
4.40
|
0.285
|
5.54
|
1.45
|
2.41
|
0.280
|
64.9%
|
Montero
|
(1-6)
|
(1/5)
|
20.0%
|
(2/5)
|
40.0%
|
1.74
|
5.47
|
4.45
|
4.50
|
0.305
|
9.49
|
4.01
|
0.00
|
0.405
|
62.2%
|
Edge - NONE
Bullpens
Athletics
|
(12-15)
|
19/342
|
55.9%
|
67.8%
|
1.34
|
18
|
4.82
|
27
|
3.89
|
4.27
|
1.6
|
18
|
0.250
|
1.31
|
22.4%
|
8.2%
|
Mets
|
(14-17)
|
21/34
|
61.8%
|
72.7%
|
1.53
|
30
|
4.98
|
28
|
3.97
|
4.45
|
1.4
|
20
|
0.266
|
1.32
|
24.4%
|
10.3%
|
Edge - NONE
Offenses
Team
|
Runs PG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
OAK
|
4.33
|
23
|
-12.8
|
14
|
98
|
10
|
0.313
|
22
|
0.186
|
7
|
-3.0
|
19
|
25.6%
|
29
|
9.2%
|
7
|
NYM
|
4.82
|
9
|
-7.0
|
9
|
102
|
8
|
0.325
|
12
|
0.195
|
3
|
-14.2
|
29
|
19.8%
|
7
|
8.8%
|
14
|
Edge - NYM
Defensive Runs Above Average
Edge - NYM
Road / Home
OAK is 15-31 on the road, and NY is 25-27 at home
Conclusion: We have two crappy pitchers, and two weak bullpens. OAK is a lousy road team and BY isn't a very good home team. NY has the more potent offense and the better defense.
Pick - 1st 5 OVER 5 (-119 for 1 unit), Over 9.5 (-100 for 1 unit)
ATL @ LAD
Absolutely no analysis other than the best pitcher in baseball
PICK - LAD 1st 5 RL (-204) for 3 units) and full game RL (-163 for 2 Units)
The Dodger lead 4-1 with 2 outs in the 9th one of the top closers in baseballd gives up 3 runs, before LA pulls out a 5-4 win, but fail to cover the RL??. If I didn't know better, I'd suspect that the fix was in.
STL @ CHI C
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
W-L
|
QS/GS
|
QS %
|
4+ ER/GS
|
4+ ER %
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Wacha
|
(7-3)
|
(10/17)
|
58.8%
|
(4/17)
|
23.5%
|
1.33
|
3.71
|
4.05
|
3.80
|
0.259
|
8.94
|
3.04
|
0.76
|
0.330
|
71.9%
|
Quintana
|
(5-8)
|
(11/19)
|
57.9%
|
(5/19)
|
26.3%
|
1.27
|
4.20
|
3.95
|
3.91
|
0.238
|
9.78
|
3.23
|
1.13
|
0.300
|
71.3%
|
Edge - NONE
Bullpens
Edge - CHI C
Offenses
Team
|
Runs PG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
STL
|
4.56
|
20
|
-25.0
|
17
|
95
|
15
|
0.320
|
16
|
0.165
|
17
|
-1.1
|
14
|
21.2%
|
15
|
9.0%
|
11
|
CHI C
|
4.71
|
16
|
-11.6
|
13
|
97
|
11
|
0.325
|
12
|
0.188
|
6
|
1.4
|
11
|
21.8%
|
17
|
9.9%
|
2
|
Edge - CHI
Defensive Runs Above Average
Edge CHI C
Road / Home
STL is 21-26 on the road, and CHI is 25-21 at home
Edge - CHI C
Conclusion: On Friday, just when we thought the Cubs were gonna make a run, and the Cards looked like dead men walking, along come a 9 run Cardinal 8th turning a 3-2 lead into an 11-3 deficit! Then yesterday, the Cubs trailed 2-0 entering the botom of the 8th. They looked dead, then presto a 3 run 8th and the Cubs win 3-2.
The Cubs are favored here, and maybe they should be they should be, but -165 seems steep for this team in this spot. On paper the Cubs are the better team. They have the better offense, defense, and bullpen. As for these two pitchers, they look [pretty even to me.
After scuffling through his first 13 startswith a 1.51 WHIP,a 4.76 ERA, and with only a few bright spots, Wacha's suddenly turned the corner over his last four outings. He's 4-0, giving up just 3 runs while posting a 31/5 K:BB over 26.2 innings in that span. The Cubs trounced him for 6 runs over 4.1 innings at Wrigley back on June 4. Wacha went the distance against the Mets in his last start, striking out 8 while allowing just 3 hits and 1 walk in a 5-0 win, but he threw 119 [itches.
Jose Quitana has also been on a major roll. In his 7 starts, since June 1, Quintana is 3-1 giving up 35 hits and just 12 earned runs in those 47 innings, with 57 Ks and 16 BBs. That translates to a 1.09 WHIP and a 2.30 ERA over that span. Quintna is coming off 7 shutout inning at BALT in his last outing, and first as a Cub. However, he only threw 100 pitches.
Of course, I could be totally wrong. but I try to fade pitchers coming off high pitch count games, and the Cubs seem to have every other edge here
.Pick- CHI C 1st 5 RL (-107 for 1 unit) and CHI C full game ML (-163 for 2 units)