For what it's worth, yesterday was a mediocre day. HTN and BOS were winners for us (although HTN almost blew it), but WASH and LAD were both big losers and "Mad Max" Scherzer reverted to "HR Happy" Max and Alex Wood. As for KC, they should have covered the 1st 5 and full game RLs (they were 6-6 with men on 2nd and 3rd and 0 out and couldn't push across the run, and ended up winning by just 1. We'll update our units tomorrow or Monday.
On to today's games. We actually like a few, including both afternoon games. We bet them this morning because we didn't expect these lines to be there at game time:
STL @ CHI C
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
W-L
|
QS/GS
|
QS %
|
4+ ER/GS
|
4+ ER %
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Wainwright R
|
(11-5)
|
(7/19)
|
36.8%
|
(8/19)
|
42.1%
|
1.49
|
5.08
|
4.32
|
4.09
|
0.283
|
8.06
|
3.07
|
1.05
|
0.339
|
68.7%
|
Lester - L
|
(6-6)
|
(11/20)
|
55.0%
|
(6/20)
|
30.0%
|
1.30
|
4.07
|
3.92
|
3.64
|
0.252
|
9.08
|
2.97
|
1.17
|
0.310
|
67.4%
|
Edge - CHI C
Bullpens
Edge - CHI C
Offenses
Team
|
Runs PG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
STL
|
4.56
|
20
|
-25.0
|
17
|
95
|
15
|
0.320
|
16
|
0.165
|
17
|
-1.1
|
14
|
21.2%
|
15
|
9.0%
|
11
|
CHI C
|
4.71
|
16
|
-11.6
|
13
|
97
|
11
|
0.325
|
12
|
0.188
|
6
|
1.4
|
11
|
21.8%
|
17
|
9.9%
|
2
|
Edge - CHI
Defensive Runs Above Average
Edge CHI C
Road / Home
STL is 21-25 on the road, and CHI is 24-21 at home
Conclusion: Just when we thought the Cubs were gonna make a run, and the Cards looked like dead men walking, along come a 9 run Cardinal 8th turning a 3-2 lead into an 11-3 deficit! How the hell does that ever happen. Jake Arrieta gave them another quality start, and the Cub were supposed to have the better bullpen. "We just pitched badly for one inning, and some really good pitchers had a tough time," Cubs manager Joe Maddon said. Y'a think Joe? Sure glad that I wasn't on the Cubs yesreday. I've got my own problems. All I can say is that this ain't last season's Cubs.
The Cubs are favored here and they should be, but -152 seems steep for this team. n paper the Cubs are the better team. They have the better offense, defense, and yes bullpen (at least that's what the numbers say. As for these two pitchers, the Cubs look better here too.
Adam Wainwright's been very inconsistent. He does have the 7 quality starts, including 3 in his last 5 outings, but he also has 8 starts in which he's allowed at least 4 runs, including a pair of 9 run outings. His .339 BABP is 41 points higher than his career .298. That tells me than Wainwright had some really bad luck on batted balls in play. His GB rate (47.4%) is up 4% from his career low last season, but his WHIP, ERA, metrics, K and BB rates are very mediocre. Wainwright delivers a quality start less than 40% of the time, and he has more bad one than good ones.
As for Jon Lester, last season Lester was very good and extremely consistent. This season, Lester, like the Cubs, has struggled more often. He is still throwing quality starts at a 55% clip, but he's also gotten hit hard about 30% of the time, and that's a lot more often than last season. His ERA's still decent, slightly over 4.00, but his metrics are all under 4.00. He's still maintaining an excellent 49.8% GB rate and striking out a batter per inning. His 67.4% strand rate is 7.5% lower than his career 74.9% rate, and his .310 BABIP is 12 point higher than his career mark. That tells me he's had some bad luck and hasn't really pitched all that badly. He bounced back from what could be the worst start of his career, with a 7 inning gem, and I expect him to continue to pitch well.
Of course I could be totally wrong. Wainwright may be mediocre now, but he's still capable of a good outing from time to time, and although Lester's pitching well for the most part, he did have that awful outing v PITT two starts ago, and I suppose he could have another. And the Cubs supposedly superior pen did melt down something awful yesterday, so I suppose it could happen again. My best guess is that the Cubs bounce back today.
Pick- CHI C 1st 5 RL (-119 for 1 unit) and CHI C full game ML (-152 for 1 units)
SD @ SF
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
W-L
|
QS/GS
|
QS %
|
4+ ER/GS
|
4+ ER %
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Perdomo - R
|
(4-5)
|
(9/16)
|
56.3%
|
(5/16)
|
31.3%
|
1.53
|
4.94
|
4.05
|
3.97
|
0.292
|
7.25
|
3.47
|
1.05
|
0.342
|
68.3%
|
Moore - L
|
(3-10)
|
(6/19)
|
31.6%
|
(8/19)
|
43.1%
|
1.64
|
5.81
|
4.97
|
5.23
|
0.296
|
7.43
|
3.59
|
1.37
|
0.338
|
65.8%
|
Edge - SD
Bullpens
Edge - NONE
Offenses
Team
|
Runs PG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SD
|
3.77
|
30
|
-67.7
|
27
|
82
|
29
|
0.297
|
29
|
0.161
|
19
|
13.1
|
4
|
25.8%
|
30
|
7.8%
|
23
|
SF
|
3.92
|
29
|
-94.9
|
30
|
80
|
30
|
0.292
|
30
|
0.131
|
30
|
0.1
|
13
|
19.4%
|
5
|
7.5%
|
25
|
Edge - NONE
Defensive Runs Above Average
Edge - SF
Road / Home
SD is a lousy 18-31 on the road, and SF is a lousy 19-27 at home
Edge - None
Conclusion: Bad teams are inherently unpredictable, and these are two really bad teams so anything could happen. Both team have lousy bullpens with 32 losses and 21 blown saves between them. These two offenses are statistically the two worst offenses in baseball, yet they scored a combined 16 run last night in a 907 SD win. SD is a lousy rooad team, and SF is almost as lousy at home. SF does rank as the better defensive team. That leaves these two pitchers.
I'm still not sure what to make of Luis Perdomo. His 9 quality starts are impressive. That's more than 55% of his outings. the 98 hits allowed in 85.2 innings is not. The 10 HRs is impressive but the 69/333 K/BB ratio , not so much. Among the 98 starting pitchers who have thrown at least 80 innings, Perdomo's 65.7% GB rate ranks 1st, as does his 3.41 GB/FB ratio. Perdoma has pitched a lot better than his record or ERA would suggest. His advanced metrics are almost a full run better than his ERA. That discrepancy can be somewhat explained by his high .342 BABIP.
Matt Moore has made 19 starts for the Giants this season and so far, he's been a huge disappointment. Hoes have 6 quality starts, but he also has 8 in ewhich he's allowed at least 4 earned run. His WHIP is exorbitant. His ERA's over 5 and his metrics are also around 5.00. He walks too many and opponents are batting almost .300 against him.
When Moore was traded to the Giants, in the middle of last season, I thought that Moore had died and gone to heaven. He was leaving that beast of an AL East for the NL West, where he'd face pitchers, rather than DHs, and throw his home game in a pitcher friendly AT&T Park. It hasn't exactly worked out that way. Since joining the Giants, Moore is 10-10, with a 1.52 WHIP and a 5.13 ERA. He has been better at AT&T, but by no means good. In his 6 starts at AT&T Park this season, he's 2-6, with a 1.38 WHIP, a 4.20 ERA, a .269 BAA and 5 quality starts.
At 28, and with just over 700 innings under his belt, Moore is at a crossroads. Some believe that he is exactly what he is, and he's not going to get any better. Others still see promise. In his best games, he shows command, a 91-92 MPH fastball, a wicked curve, and a straight change that's good enough. At his worst, he's out of the game early because he gives up too many walks, and too many HRs, usually at the worst possible time. I used to be a believer, but now, only if he's pitching at AT&T, and even then he's usually a fade or pass.
This is a value play. SF at -134 this morning is ridiculous, at best SF should be even money or a very slight facorite.
PICK - SD ML (+125 for 1 unit)
CHI WS @ KC
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
W-L
|
QS/GS
|
QS %
|
4+ ER/GS
|
4+ ER %
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Pelfrey - R
|
(3-7)
|
(2/15)
|
13.3%
|
(3/15)
|
20.0%
|
1.41
|
4.35
|
5.30
|
5.28
|
0.251
|
5.85
|
3.98
|
1.37
|
0.267
|
73.1%
|
Vargas
|
(12-4)
|
(12/18)
|
66.7%
|
(2/18)
|
11.1%
|
1.22
|
3.06
|
4.69
|
4.87
|
0.250
|
6.77
|
2.39
|
1.07
|
0.283
|
83.1%
|
Edge - KC
Bullpens
Edge - NONE now that David Roberton's in NY
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
CHI WS
|
-32.9
|
21
|
93
|
20
|
0.313
|
22
|
0.157
|
22
|
-2.7
|
18
|
22.1%
|
19
|
6.7%
|
28
|
KC
|
-63.6
|
26
|
86
|
26
|
0.305
|
26
|
0.161
|
19
|
-3.9
|
21
|
20.3%
|
10
|
6.4%
|
30
|
Edge - NONE
Defensive Runs Above Average
Edge - KC
Road / Home
CHI is an awful 19-32 on the road, while KC is a solid 28-23 at home.
Edge - KC
Conclusion: One team (KC) in just a game and a half out in the AL Central, and just 2 back in the AL wildcard race. The other (CHI) is selling off everything it can (Quitana, Roberstson etc.), and is the only AL team totally out of contention. The numbers say CHI has the better pen, but that's no longer the case with closer David Roberston shipped to the Yankees. The numbers also say the White Sox are the slightly better of two poor offenses, but the Royals spent most of the first two months of the season ranking as the worst offense in baseball, so their current standing, while not good, represents significant improvement, so the difference between these two offenses is probably not even as big as the numbers make it look. KC is the also the better defensive team, and much better at home than CHI is on the road. That brings us to these two starting pitchers.
Mike Pelfrey has just 2 quality starts in his 15 outings. In 8 of his starts he didn't even gone 5 innings, and he's averaging under 5 innings per start. His 48/33 K/BB ratio leaves a lot to be desired, as does his 1.41 WHIP and 4.35 ERA. His metrics are even worse, well over 5.00
For His career, Mike Pelfrey is 68-98, with a 1.50 WHIP, and a 4.57 ERA. Pelfrey has one of the worst strikeout rates in the game, and his walk rate is well above average. He has a career 5.08 K/9 rate and a 3.23 B B/9. Combine those two, and you get one of the worst K/BB ratios in the game, a piss-poor 1.57 career mark. His 48.6% career ground ball rate is more okay than elite. There's just not much to like about Pelfrey.
Jason Vargas
Last season, Jason Vargas had a short 3 start major league stint (12 innings, and posted a 0.92 WHIP and a 2.25 ERA. His advance metrics, a 3.96 SIERA and a 4.28 xFIP, were not anywhere near as impressive, but his 8.25 K/9 and 2.25 BB/9 were. However, it was only 3 starts and 12 innings. His fastball velocity was down 1.5 mph and his BABIP was an unbelievably low .219.
Vargas's career WHIP is a 1.30. His career ERA is 4.09. Hi s advanced metrics, a 4.46 SIERA and a 4.51 xFIP, are higher than his ERA. His career K/9 is 6, BB/0 is 2.60 and BABIP is .284. Except for that three start, 12 inning 2016, that Vargas.
Now fast forward to this season. Since he returned at the end of last season, Vargas has been very good. Two thirds of his starts have been quality starts, and he's allowed more than 3 earned runs just twiceHis WHIP is solid, and his ERA is excellent. He not a big strikeout pitcher, and while his walk rate's not bad, it's not great either. Perhaps that's why his metrics aren't anywhere near as good as his stellar ERA. I can't explain how or why, but Vargas is getting it done, and that's a lot more than can be said for Mike Pelfrey.
Pick - KC 1st 5 RL (-130 for 1 unit) and full game RL (+107 for 1 unit)
After returning from a DL stint (hamstring strain) in May, Ian Kennedy struggled to get comfortable with his previously-preferred offspeed pitch, his chageup. . Kennedy said his changeup wass the only pitch that was affected by his early-season hamstring injury, prompting him to turn more to his curveball in recent weeks. The change in approach seems to be paying dividends, as Kennedy is 3-0 with a 0.95 WHIP, a 2.68 ERA and 5 quality starts over his last 6 starts (37 innings).
We'll take the contending team, and I think the better team.
PICK - KC 1st 5 RL (-125 for 1 unit) and full game RL (+107 for 1 unit)
BOS @ LAA
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
W-L
|
QS/GS
|
QS %
|
4+ ER/GS
|
4+ ER %
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
AVG
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
Price - L
|
(5-2)
|
(7/10)
|
70.0%
|
(1/10)
|
10.0%
|
1.21
|
3.39
|
4.22
|
4.37
|
0.232
|
8.56
|
2.80
|
1.03
|
0.279
|
78.9%
|
Ramirez - R
|
(8-8)
|
(8/18)
|
44.4%
|
(8/18)
|
44.4%
|
1.30
|
4.50
|
4.34
|
4.23
|
0.265
|
7.18
|
2.51
|
1.47
|
0.297
|
74.0%
|
Edge - BOS
Bullpens
Edge - BOS
Offenses
Team
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
BOS
|
-25.0
|
17
|
94
|
17
|
0.321
|
14
|
0.146
|
27
|
1.1
|
12
|
18.6%
|
3
|
9.3%
|
6
|
LAA
|
-52.9
|
24
|
89
|
24
|
0.299
|
28
|
0.142
|
29
|
-5.8
|
24
|
20.0%
|
9
|
8.3%
|
19
|
Edge - BOS
Defensive Runs Above Average
Edge BOS
Road / Home
BOS is a mediocre 26-25 on the road, and LA is a slightly better 25 -2e at home
Conclusion: The Angels have a good bullpen, but BOS has a better one. The Angels have a decent offense, but again BOS is again a little better. The same goes for defenses. BOS is an average road team and LA is slightly better at home. Then we get to these two starting pitchers.
After spending April and most of May on the DL, David Price seems to be rounding into typical David Price form. He reeled of 5 straight quality starts and 5 in his last 7 outings. Since since giving up 8 hits and 6 runs at the Yankees back on June 8, Pirce is 4-1 with a 2.79 ERA over that stretch.
As for JC Ramirez, he is performing at about a league average level this season. Ramirez has tossed 8 quality starts, but he also has 8 starts in which he's allowed at least 4 earned runs. His strikeout rate ss nothing special, and his walk rate is a little high. He has allowed more hit (113) than innings pitched (109), and walked another 31. Ramirez hasn't been awful, but he hasn't been great either.
We'll take a chance on Price staying in form, and coupled with BOS's other advantages, that should be enough.
Pick - BOS ML (-121 for 2 units)
PICK - BOS 1st 5 RL (-114 for 2 units)