For what it's worth, yesterday was not a good day. We didn't like the card, and cashed cashed 1 of our 2 wagers. We had 1 unit on the Over in the BALT/TB game and that was fine, but we also had 2 units on the TB ML. It was a game TB could have and should have won. They outhit BALT 13-10, and led 5-4 after 8. Given those two I would expect to win. However, TB did what it has already done a few times this season. All I can do is shake ,myu head in diisgust. For the day we finished -1.13 units , but for the season, we are still +29.65.
Those two picks were also our Summer Classic MLB contest picks making us 1-1 for the day. Almost everyone ahead of us also went at least 1-1 so we gained no ground (Bone went 2-0 to take the lead), and almost everyone ckosely trailing is went 2-0. Which dropped up from #4 to #8. Rank doesn't mean much right now because less than $200 separates #4 and #10, and we've still got two weeks to go.
On to today's games.
PHIL @ ARIZ
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
W
|
L
|
GS
|
QS
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
FIP
|
WAR
|
Pivetta
|
1
|
3
|
8
|
2
|
1.49
|
4.46
|
4.29
|
4.25
|
4.53
|
0.5
|
Greinke
|
8
|
4
|
15
|
8
|
1.05
|
3.14
|
3.20
|
3.10
|
3.31
|
2.5
|
Edge - ARIZ
Bullpens
Edge - ARIZ Big
Offense
Edge - TB
Defensive Runs Above Average
Edge - NONE
Home / Road
PHUL is a lousy 10-30 on the road, while ARIZ is a terrific 28-10 at home
Edge - ARIZ
Conclusion: ARIZ has almost every edge in this game. They have the much better bullpen, and the the much better offense. The Diamondbacks are also excellent at home. In this game IO they also have the better starting pitcher. Zack Greinke is having a great year. Of 74 qualifying starting pitchers, Greinke ranks 6th in WHIP, 15th in ERA, 6th in SIERA, 5th in xFIP, 8th in FIP, and 8 in K/9. Greinke is elite.
As for Nick Pivetta, after a rough start, he has tossed back to back quality starts, including that 1-0 masterpiece tow starts when he outpitched Chris Sale. Pivetta is capable, but unless he can throw another gem, PHIL has little chance. The Dbacks hit a lot better than the Red Sox and at home, in that hitter friendly park, things can get ugly in a hurry for opposing pitchers, and if ARIZ gets into the weak PHIL bullpen, this game could get out of hand.
I won't be the ML at -200, too rich for my blood. I considered the 1st 5 RL at -135, but if Pivetta's on, he is capable of keeping it close for 5 innings. So I'll go with the RL. ARIZ should win this one and absent a CG geme by Pivetta, they should win it going away
PICK ARIZ RL (-104 for 1 unit) This is a contest bet for me
Opinion ONLY - CIN ML at +147 intrigues me. I probably won't bet it, but I think the reds have a decent chance here. Wacha hasn't been that good, and the Reds have the better bullpen and offense. I think the Reds are the better team. The only problem is that CIN SP Brandon Finnegan is coming off the DL. I like Finnegan, and if healthy, I think he could be the best starter on the Reds staff, but taking a pitcher just off the DL in their 1st start is risky. I'm making the pick in the King of Diamonds contest, but not in the MLB Classic Contest (I thought about it), and I haven't bet it, and may not, so I guess it's just a lean.
Sure Glad I stayed off CIN. ARIZ came through nicely this afternoon. Let's see if we can do a s well tonight.
COL @ SF
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
W
|
L
|
GS
|
QS
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
FIP
|
WAR
|
Marquez
|
5
|
3
|
11
|
4
|
1.36
|
3.92
|
4.49
|
4.6
|
3.89
|
1.3
|
Samardzija
|
2
|
9
|
15
|
8
|
1.16
|
4.74
|
3.16
|
3.01
|
3.49
|
1.9
|
|
AVG
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
K/BB
|
HR/9
|
HR/FB
|
GB%
|
LOB%
|
BABIP
|
Marquez
|
0.254
|
8.15
|
3.17
|
2.57
|
0.91
|
9.0%
|
40.60%
|
75.70%
|
0.307
|
Samardzija
|
0.260
|
10.22
|
1.19
|
8.62
|
1.46
|
18.0%
|
41.50%
|
65.90%
|
0.327
|
Edge - SF
Bullpens
Edge - COL
Offense
OFF
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
Runs PG
|
Rank
|
Rockies
|
-56.9
|
26
|
84
|
26
|
0.331
|
6
|
0.172
|
16
|
3.6
|
10
|
5.15
|
6
|
Giants
|
-71.5
|
30
|
80
|
29
|
0.291
|
30
|
0.132
|
30
|
1.2
|
12
|
3.76
|
29
|
Edge - COL
Defensive Runs Above Average
Edge - COL
Home / Road
COL is an excellent 25-16 on the road, while SF is only 14-21 at home.
Conclusion: COL has almost every edge in this game. They have the better bullpen, the better offense (SF has the worst offense in the league, and even the slightly better defense. They are also better on the road than SF is at home. The only edge SF appears to have is at starting pitcher. Jeff Samardzija, statistically, has performed better the German Marquez has. However in 3 starts against COL this season. Samarzija has struggled to the tune of an 0-3 record, with a 1.64 WHIP, a 9.33 ERA and a .343 BAA. It was just Coors either, in his one home start v COL he allowed 8 hits and 4 runs over 7 innings.
SF is a total mess. Bone, who you should be familiar with (he's #1 in the Summer Classic MLB contest right now) responded to my comment on his post today as follows: " Was at the giant game yesterday. And it was beyond ugly...giant players were getting on each other and rumors are flying about discontent thruout the club house. If your watching the betting lines. they are all about the gmen being the right side. Giants right now make bad pictures look like Cy Young award winners Giants have no bullpen even remotely I don't care how Colorado comes in this game they are going to win it." I couldn't have said it better. I'm fading SF tonight. This is my other. contest pick (and Bone's as well)
PICK - COL ML (+126 for 1 unit)