For what it's worth, yesterday was a very good day. We cashed 7 of our 9 wagers. It could have been even better,but the Cubs waiteduntil the 6th inning to go ahead costing us another 1st 5 win (it was 3-3 after 5) For the day we finished +5.38 units, which means we not only made up the 4 plus units we lost on Friday, but we also gained about a unit. We'll update our season record tomorrow.
Our Summer Classic MLB contest picks were good as well. At least for a day, we broke out of our 1-1 rut, with two ML wins PITT and KC to pull our way up to 4th place.
On to today's games. Here's the first.
BALT @ TB
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
W
|
L
|
GS
|
QS
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
FIP
|
WAR
|
Tillman
|
1
|
5
|
9
|
2
|
2.17
|
8.39
|
5.79
|
5.88
|
6.52
|
-0.2
|
Odorizzi
|
4
|
3
|
13
|
6
|
1.22
|
3.78
|
4.66
|
4.78
|
5.34
|
0.0
|
Edge - TB
Bullpens
Edge - TB
Offense
OFF
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
Runs PG
|
Rank
|
Orioles
|
-32.4
|
23
|
93
|
21
|
0.316
|
22
|
0.174
|
15
|
-7.6
|
26
|
4.54
|
21
|
Rays
|
39.4
|
3
|
107
|
4
|
0.329
|
9
|
0.192
|
5
|
15.0
|
2
|
4.91
|
9
|
Edge - TB
Defensive Runs Above Average
Edge - NONE
Home / Road
BALT is a woeful 12-24 on the road, while TB is a decent 24-17 at home
Edge - TB
Conclusion: This one looks so clear to me, that it frightens me. The Rays clearly have the better offense, and although they didn't show it yesterday, they're a good home team. BALT is a miserable road team, with probably the biggest discrepancy between home and road performance in the league, 24-14 at Camden Yards v 12-24 on the road.
Chris Tillman has been atrocious since returning from the DL with a shoulder injury that plagued him throughout last season. Of the 161 starting pitchers in baseball who have thrown at least 30 innings this season (Tillmann has 39.2) Tillman ranks 161st, dead last, in WHIP, 161st, dead last, in ERA, 158th in SIERA, 157th in xFIP, 155th in FIP, and 161st, dead last, in BAA!
As for Jake Odorizzi, he's HR prone, and walks too many, His metrics are almost a run higher than his ERA and his .238 BABIP is 64 points lower than his career mark. That tells me he's been luckyOf the 109 starting pitchers, he ranks 101 in HR/9 and 61st in BB/9
PICK TB ML (-150 for 2 units and BALT/TB OVER 9 (-115 for 1 unit)