For what it's worth, last night we sucked royally thanks to the Washington National and the Cleveland Indians.
WASH, very atypically, got a really poor outing from Stephen Strasburg and cost us 2 units on a 1st 5 wager. We've got no complaints there. We've cashed lots of Strasburg tickets this season, so we accept and live with the occasional loss.
CLEV blown out by the Twins. Trevor Bauer absolutely sucked. We got a kick our of our firend Bone's post labeled "Trevor Bauer -771 WTF". He sure nailed that one. We were fading Mejia, so he throws a shutout. WTF? Cost us another 2 units
Then there was the Angels at nice plus $. That's the problem with straight value plays. It looked like an even game to us. We didn't give either team an edge in the 1st 5, but it didn't work out that way. Should have passed. Kiss another unit goodbye.
Finally a winner with TB. Simple logic - we faded Jimenez, and he got crushed - 2.1 IP, 7 hits, 4 BBs and 9 runs. We at least got almost a unit back. We haven't calculated the complete damage yet, but we were down 4+ units. Ugly!
Fortunately, our Summer Classic MLB contest picks were a little better. We went 1-1. That may not sound great, but when everybody ahead of you goes 1-1 or worse (except for Carson K, MM77 and Prof Donkey, who swept), and their W is a big fav, going 1-1 with a small dogs looks pretty damn good. We. had the PITT ML as a small dog. That was a close game throughout with Taillon and Wainwright both tossing quality starts. PITT gor runs in the 8th and 9th to eke out a 4-3 win. We also had MIL ML. That turned out to be a close game, but MIL trailed 4-1 early. They almost pulled it out against the ATL pen, but not quite for a 5-4 L. That made us 1-1 for the day and 10-10 for the contest in 6th place, still within striking distance.
On to today's games. Here's the first.
TOR @ KC
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
W
|
L
|
GS
|
QS
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
FIP
|
WAR
|
Estrada
|
4
|
5
|
15
|
8
|
1.39
|
4.98
|
3.79
|
4.05
|
3.90
|
1.6
|
Vargas
|
10
|
3
|
14
|
10
|
1.13
|
2.27
|
4.50
|
4.69
|
3.23
|
2.3
|
Vargas has more quality starts and a much better WHIP. He also has a better BAA walks less, and allowws fewer HRs than Estrada.
After a really fast start (5 QS in his 1st 6 outings), since June 1 (4 starts), Estrada has really struggled, going 0-3 with a 2.61 WHIP, a 12.68 ERA and 0 qua;ity starts. He's given up 35 hits and 23 runs in just 16.1 innings.
During that same period (4 starts), Vargas is 4-0 with a 1.14 WHIP, a 2.00 ERA and 3 quality starts. In his one non quality starts he only gave up2 runs but on went 5 innings. He's given up 26 hitsand just 5 runs, over 27 innings.
Edge - KC
Bullpens
Edge - TOR
Offense
OFF
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
Runs PG
|
Rank
|
Blue Jays
|
-36.4
|
24
|
92
|
22
|
0.315
|
23
|
0.171
|
17
|
-10.7
|
28
|
4.30
|
24
|
Royals
|
-68.0
|
28
|
82
|
27
|
0.300
|
27
|
0.158
|
21
|
-7.5
|
25
|
3.99
|
27
|
Both teams are weak offensively. TOR has most of the edges but not by that much. It should also be noted that the Royals spent all of April and the first part of May ranked #30 in most of these categories. Their current ranking shows consideable improvement.
Edge - TOR
Defensive Runs Above Average
The Royals are the much better defensive team, and they'r playing at home.
Home / Road
TOR is a weak 16-21 on the road, while KC is a surprising 17-20 at home.
Conclusion: TOR has a small offensive edge and the better bullpen, but that may not matter here. The two big edges that I see here is the home field advantage, and the better starting pitcher. The overall numbers say that they two guys are close, but Estrada been awful since the calendar turned to June.
As for Vargas, last season, hargas had a short 3 start major league stint (12 innings, and posted a 0.92 WHIP and a 2.25 ERA. His advance metrics, a 3.96 SIERA and a 4.28 xFIP, were not anywhere near as impressive, but his 8.25 K/9 and 2.25 BB/9 were. However, it was only 3 starts and 12 innings. His fastball velocity was down 1.5 mph and his BABIP was an unbelievably low .219.
Vargas's career WHIP is a 1.30. His career ERA is 4.09. Hi s advanced metrics, a 4.46 SIERA and a 4.51 xFIP, are higher than his ERA. His career K/9 is 6, BB/0 is 2.60 and BABIP is .284. Except for that three start, 12 inning 2016, that Vargas.
Now fast forward to this season. Since he returned at the end of last season, Vargas has been one of the better pitchers in baseball! I can't explain why, but Vargas is getting it done, and right noe Estrada's not.
PICK - KC 1st 5 ML (-103 for 1 unit) and full game ML +108 for 1 unit)
These are both 1st 5 so they are based mostly on a big edge at SP.
MINN @ CLEV
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
W
|
L
|
GS
|
QS
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
FIP
|
WAR
|
Gibson
|
4
|
5
|
|
|
1.84
|
6.56
|
5.22
|
3.15
|
5.41
|
0.0
|
Kluber
|
6
|
2
|
|
|
1.09
|
3.58
|
3.15
|
3.00
|
2.91
|
1.5
|
Edge - CLEV
Bullpens
Offfenses
OFF
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
Runs PG
|
Rank
|
Twins
|
-5.9
|
11
|
98
|
12
|
0.323
|
12
|
0.164
|
19
|
1.3
|
11
|
4.64
|
20
|
Indians
|
8.9
|
7
|
103
|
6
|
0.330
|
8
|
0.183
|
12
|
-2.1
|
17
|
4.83
|
`9
|
Pick - CLEV 1st 5 RL (-135 for 1 unit)
CHI C @ MIA
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
W
|
L
|
GS
|
QS
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
FIP
|
WAR
|
Lester
|
4
|
4
|
|
|
1.29
|
3.83
|
3.89
|
3.7
|
3.66
|
1.7
|
Nicolino
|
0
|
1
|
|
|
1.69
|
5.06
|
5.28
|
5.39
|
6.64
|
-0.2
|
Edge - CHI C
Bullpens
Offenses
PICK - CHII C - 1st 5 RL (-111 for 1 unit)
PITT @ STL
Starting Pitchers
SP
|
W
|
L
|
GS
|
QS
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
SIERA
|
xFIP
|
FIP
|
WAR
|
Cole
|
5
|
6
|
15
|
10
|
1.25
|
4.28
|
4.25
|
4.02
|
4.56
|
0.7
|
Lynn
|
5
|
4
|
14
|
6
|
1.16
|
3.33
|
4.42
|
4.61
|
5.31
|
0.1
|
Edge - PITT
Bullpens
Edge - NONE
Offense
Edge - STL
Defense
Edge - STL
Home/ Road
PITT is a weak 15-22 on the road, and STL is a mediocre 18-19 at home
Edge - STL small
Conclusion: This one's close. STL has the better offense and defense, but it close. STL is slightly better at home than PITT is on the road. To me this game comes down to the two starting pitchers. Cole is streaky, he had 8 straight quality starts, followed by 4 weak pones followed by 2 more quality starts. After a fast star, Lynn hasn't produced one in his last 5 starts. The numbers say these guys are close, but I'll go with PITT as a significnat dog. I got +125 this morning
PICK - PITT - ML (+125 for 2 units)
OK, I'm tired, I've had a few and I'm not writing these up, but I like 3 tonight
1. LAD 1st 5 RL (-159 for 1 unit)
It's Kershaw, the best pitcher on the planet v Chatwood. Chatwood's best on the road but I'll take a hot with Kershaw
2. AR. IZ 1st 5 RL (-147 for 1 unit)
It's Ray v Lively. ARIZ is really good at home. Got trounced last night. I'll take my chances with Ray
3. HTN 1s5 5 RL (-115 for 1 unit) and ML (-155 for 1 unit)
I've been riding McCuller all season, I'm not about to stop now.
BOL all
PS. May not post tomorrow, at 1st flance I don't like anything. I'll have to find 2 to bet in the contest, but beyond that, well see.