For what it's worth, yesterday started out great, but ended very poorly. We cashed 1 unit wagers on the White Sox and the Dbacks as a dog. Then came the evening. The Yankees took a 5-0 lead but blew it all and mor, and ended up getting crushed. In our killer game, ATL led 12-8 after 8 and somehow managed to blow the RL cover by giving up 3 in the 9th. You're probably wondering if we have another "Wall of Excrement" candidate ", the answer is no. We already knew that the ATL pen was garbage. However, we went ahead and bet them anyway. We played with fire and we got burned. We wanted to bet against Cain, and considering how well Garcia had been pitching, and how weak the SF offense is, we were shocked at how badly he pitched. What can I say? Bet on a bad team and you shouldn't complain when bad thing happen because bad things just seem to happen more often to bad team. We finished +0.09 units for the day and +27.58 units for the season.
On to today's games.
CIN @ WASH
Starting Pitchers
Luis Castillo
Castillo, who will make his MLB debut, is coming straight from Double-A Pensacola, where he was 4-4 with a 2.58 ERA in 14 starts (80 1/3 innings). Acquired from the Marlins in the Dan Straily trade, the 24-year-old right-hander has posted excellent numbers throughout the minor leagues.
Stephen Strasburg
Strasburg is off to another fine start this season. He's started 14 games for the Bats. He's 8-2, with 10 quality starts (71.4%). He missed another by just 1 out. He's allowed 3 or fewer runs 12 times. This season, he's allowed less hits (73) than innings pitched (90.2), and opposing batters are only hitting .213 aginst him. Strasburg is striking out well over a batter per inning, and he walked 25. Of the 79 qualifying starting pitchers, Strasburg ranks 10th in WHIP and 16th in ERA
Strasburg missed time late last season with a flexor mass strain, but still posted a stellar 15-4 record with a 1.10 WHIP and a 3.60 ERA. His advanced metrics, a 3.18 SIERA and a 3.20 xFIP, were even better. That tells me Strasburg actually pitched even better than his 3.60 ERA says he did.
Edge - WASH
Bullpens
Since this is a 1st 5 inning bet well dispense with bullpen analysis. Besides, well all know that the Nats pen sucks and the Reds pen is pretty good.
Edge - CIN
Offenses
Bothe teams have potent offenses, but with the exception of Baserunning Runs Above Average (BsR) WASH is simply better.
Edge - WASH
Defense
Edge - CIN
Home / Road Record
CIN is a lousy 11-23 on the road and WASH is a mediocre 18-14 at home
Edge - WASH
Conclusion: This game boils down to two factor. First we have two very capable offenseswho can both put up runs, but WASH's ranks a little higher. We also have two very different starting pitchers. Strasburg is near elite sttus with great numbers. As for Luis Castillo, he's making his MLB debut, and hasn't pitched above AA ball and he's facing a tough lineup. The only edge the reds have in this game is in the bullpen, and we're removing it from the equation.
PICK - WASH 1st 5 RL (-164 for 2 units)
MINN @ CLEV
Starting Pitchers
Adalberto Mejia
Mejia has started 9 games for the Twins. He's 1-3, with just 2 quality starts (22.2%). . He's allowed a few more hits (43) than innings pitched (40.2), and opposing batters are hitting .276 against him. He'also walked another 22, which explains his high WHIP. He i striming out close to a batter per inning (35), but the 36/22 K/BB rate isn't very good. His fastball is average at best. His change is horrible. His slider could be good if thrown consistently. His curve could be good if thrown at all. At best, his stuff is average. At worse, useless.
Trevor Bauer
Trevor Bauer has always been a tantalizing enigma. Last season, after starting in the bullpen, Bauer ender up starting 28 games and becoming an important rotation piece for a CLEV team that went all the way to the 7th game of the WS. Bauer’s numbers were solid, but not great. He kind of left us thinking that he should be better. He posted a 12-8 record with a 1.31 WHIP and a 4.26 ERA. His advanced metrics, a 4.22 SIERA and a 4.13 xFIP, were solid as well. His K/9 rate was 7.96, with a 3.32 BB/9 rate. Those numbers reflect Bauer's improved command. However, even with his improvements, it still seems that Bauer's career has been somewhat disappointing. We've see flashes of his elite stuff, but because of inconsistent command, and a lack of deception, he's never been able to consistently put it all together.
This season, it's been more of the same. Bauer's made 14 starts. He's 6-5 and has delivered just 4 quality starts. He did miss two more by just one out, but he's allowed at least 4 run in six starts. Bauer has allowed a few more hits (77) than innings [pitched (74.2), and hes walked another 30, which explains his inflated WHIP. Opposing hitter are hitting .265 against him. He has struck out well over a batter per inning (89) , and his 89/30 K/BB ratio indicates better command. Bauer still remains that "tantalizing enigma" - too good to consistently fade, but not consistent enough to consistently bet on.
Edge - CLEV
Bullpens
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
FIP
|
Rank
|
xFIP
|
Rank
|
SIERA
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
1.47
|
28
|
5.2
|
30
|
5.06
|
29
|
4.82
|
29
|
5.46
|
30
|
-0.4
|
29
|
1.15
|
2
|
2.56
|
1
|
3.12
|
1
|
3.56
|
2
|
3.36
|
3
|
4.0
|
3
|
CLEV has a great bullpen. MINN has one of the worst pens in the league
Edge - MINN
Offense
OFF
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
Runs PG
|
Rank
|
Twins
|
-5.9
|
11
|
98
|
12
|
0.323
|
12
|
0.164
|
19
|
1.3
|
11
|
4.64
|
20
|
Indians
|
8.9
|
7
|
103
|
6
|
0.330
|
8
|
0.183
|
12
|
-2.1
|
17
|
4.83
|
`9
|
Bothe teams have above average offenses, but with the exception of Baserunning Runs Above Average (BsR) CLEV is simply better.
Edge - CLEV
Defense
Edge - MINN
Home / Road
MINN is a surprisingly good 20-9 on the road, while CLEV is an equally surprising weak 17-19 at home
Edge - MINN
Conclusion: CLEV has a superb bullpen, while MINN's is total crap. CLEV is also the slightly better offensive team. As for these two starting pitchers Bauer could be great, or he could be less than stellar. Mejia could pitch wel but the numbers say that's not very likely. The only thing that I do feel confident about is that if this game ius close late, and the bullpens decide it, MINN's done fore
Pick - CLEV ML -162 for 2 units)
I'm adding two additional play without writeups
1 BALT @ TB
This is simple. Ubaldo Jimenez is prime fade material. The numbers say it all
And he's coming off a rare quality start.
Archer tends to fade after 5 so...
PICK - TB 1st 5 RL -143 for 1 unit.
2, LAA @ BOS
The numbers say this game is ckose, The SP numbers even lean alittle to Meyer, but this is a straight value shot. The way Porcello's been pitching, there's no way he should be -150 ML 1st 5 ML
BOS hasnn't hit well and meyer's pitching better than Porcello.
PICK - LAA 1st 5 ML( +135 for 1 unit)