For what it's worth, yesterday was a really crap night all around. We made and posted 2 wagers. We had SF/ATL Over 9.5, and it died at 9. We could have had 9 earlier but waited and lost it. We also had the ARIZ ML. When ARIZ finally took the lead in th 8th, it was looking good, but Greinke ran out of gas in the bottom of the inning. After getting the first man out, he gave up 2 straight singles, and then an Arendo triple, to hand the lead back to the Rockies. It's just my opinion, but with a 1 run lead in the 8th, and a very good, well rested bullpen, Greinke should have been immediately pulled at the first sign of trouble. As for Arendo, that SOB has become our worst nightmare. He's cost us twice in the last 3 days. First on Sunday his 9th inning grand slam of Mark (charter "Wall of Ecrement" member) Malncon turned a 5-3 SF win into a 7-5 loss, and last night his triple turned a 3-2 8th inning lead into a 4-3 ARIZ loss. We finished the day-2 units, and stand +27.29 units for the season.
On to today's games.
WASH @ MIA
Starting Pitchers
Max Scherzer
Scherzer has started 14 games for the Nats. He's 8-4 with 12 quality starts (85.7%), including hi last 5. Scherzer has allowed just 61 hits in 00.2 innings, and opposing batters are hitting just .173 against him. He leads the NL in strikeouts (134), WHIP, and ERA. His metrics are also outatanding, raning 2nd in FIP and SIERA and 8th in xFIP.
When Scherzer has run into trouble, it's usually because he is slightly HR prone. He's become a fly ball pitcher. The best fly ball pitchers usually limit HR's per fly ball and induce a lot of infield flies. Scherzer's 0.76 GB/FB ratio is the worst of his career, and ranks 76th out of 79 qualified starting pitchers. However, his 11.7% HR/FB rate ranks 22nd and his 1.08 HR/9 is a little lower that the 1.17 league average and ranks 29th That's pretty much it, in terms of blemish on an otherwise stellar record.
Dan Straily
Straily has started 14 games for the Marlins. He's 5-4 with 4 quality starts (28.6%). He did miss another by just 1 out , and has allowed 3 runs or less in 11 of his starts. Straily's biggest problem is that he doesn't go deep into games. He's gone at least 6 innings just 5 times, and is averaging just under 5.2 innings per start. He gives up less hits (62) than innings pitched (78), and opposing batters are hitting just .215 against him. However, his 26 walks are a kittle high, ranking 44th in BB/9, and his K/BB ratio ranks 49th.
Straily doesn't have plus velocity, and he doesn’t have great command either. He does have elite movement separation between his rising fastball and his dropping change, which just might be the best in the game, and his slider is also decent. He's started throwing some 2-seamers and will front-door or back-door any pitches he's got. He's wily and he makes the most of his skill set.
Straily makes do with what he has, but Scherzer is elite.
Edge - WASH
Bullpens
These are two really lousy bullpens. I don't trust either one. I don't think either deserves an edge, but based on ERA metrics and WAR
Edge - MIA slight
Offenses
Team
|
R/PG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
Mariners
|
4.77
|
14
|
-10.3
|
14
|
97
|
13
|
0.323
|
13
|
0.160
|
29
|
Nationals
|
5.59
|
2
|
60.7
|
3
|
108
|
3
|
0.342
|
3
|
0.199
|
1
|
The MIA offense is slightly better than league average, but the WASH offense is elite.
Edge - WAS
Defense
The Marlins are the slightly better defensive teams. Edge - MIA small
Home / Road
WASH is an excellent 25-14 on the road, while IA is a mediocre 17-17 at home.
Edge - WASH
Conclusion: WASH has the much better offense. Both teams have good defenses and lousy bullpens. WASH is an excellent road team, and MIA's mediocre at home. As for these two starting pitchers, Straily usually gets the most out of whar he got. He's a wily and crafty vet, but he doesn't usually go deep, whiich means MIA may have to go to their weak pen sooner rather than later. Scherzer is elite, and is averaging just over 7 inning s per start, which means less reliance the Nats crappy pen. For the Marlins to win this game, Straily will have to pitch really well against a dangerous Nats lineup, and go deeper than he usually does. The Marlins will also have to take Scherzer deep a few times, and get to the Nats pen sooner rather than later. I suppose it's possible, but I wouldn't be on it. In fact, I'm not. I'll take my chances betting on Scherzer.
Pick - WASH 1st 5 RL (-106 for 2 units) and WASH ML for 1 unit)
CLEV @ BALT
Starting Pitchers
CARLOS CARRASCO
Carrasco is off to another strong start. He's made 13 starts, and has a 7-3 record with 8 quality starts (61.5%). He missed another by just 1 out. He has allowed 3 out less runs in 10 of his 13 starts, and 2 or less in 9 of them. He has allowed less hits (60) than innings pitched (81.1), and opposing batters are only hitting .207 against him. Carrasco is striking out almost a batter per inning (79), and possesses an excellent K/BB ratio. Carrasco has the 3rd best WHIP among qualified AL starters and 8th best ERA. His metrics are solid. Among 79 qualified MLB starter, he ranks 1th in FIP, 21st in xFIP and 20th in SIERA.
Carrasco has pitched very well over the last 3 seasons. He has a complete ’s arsenal with three well above-average pitches, his slider, curveball and changeup, and five pitches that he throws at least 10% of the time. His breaking stuff dives and his fastball can sit in the 93-94 mpg range.
Kevin Gausman
Gausman has started 15 games this season for the Orioles. He's 3-6 with just 4 quality starts (26.7%). He had 8 starts in which he allowed at least 4 runs (53.3%), and in 6 of which in which he allowed 5 or more. Overall, Gausman has given up a lot more hits (107) than innings pitched (75), and opposing batter are hitting a whopping .335 against him. He's also walked another 37, which explains his sky high WHIP. As a matter of fact, Gausman ranks dead last, 79th in WHIP and next to last, 78th, in ERA. His advanced metrics aren't quite as bad, 68th ranked FIP, 75th ranked xFIP and 76th ranked SIERA, but still well over 5.00. Gausman has also had problems with the long ball. His HR/9 had been at least 1.36 in each of his last two seasons, and currently sits at 1.56 (rank 59th) this season. Simply put, Gausman's been one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball.
Edge - CLEV
Bullpens
These two bullpens aren't close. CLEV's pen is elite, and BALT's is clearly not as good.
Edge - CLEV
Offense
Team
|
R/PG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
Indians
|
4.81
|
10
|
7.0
|
8
|
103
|
7
|
0.329
|
8
|
0.184
|
10
|
-2.6
|
17
|
Orioles
|
4.56
|
21
|
-28.5
|
22
|
94
|
21
|
0.317
|
20
|
0.177
|
13
|
-7.1
|
24
|
The Indians possess an above average offense, while the Orioles are well below average.
Edge - CLEV
Defense
Edge - BALT
Home / Road
CLEV is a very good 22-16 on the road, and BALT is an excellent 24-12 at home.
Edge - NONE
Conclusion: The Indians possess every edge in this game. The hay the better offense, the better bullpen and the vastly better starting pitcher. There's just no reason to look to BALT here.
PICK - CLEV 1st 5 RL (-107 for 2 unit) and CLEV ML (-147 for 2 unit)
ARIZ @ COL
Starting Pitchers
Tajuan Walker
Walker has started 10 games for ARIZ. He's 5-3 with 3quality start. He missed a second by just 1 out. While he hasn't been great, he hasn't been awful either. He's held opponents to 3 runs or less in 8 of his starts, including his last 6. In the other two he only allowed 4 runs. He 's allowed less hits (55) than innings pitched (57), and opponents are hitting .246 against him. He's striking out almost 1 batter per inning (52) and has only given up 4 HRs. Additionally his ERA and WHIP have been inflated by that high BABIP, which is about 20 points above his career mark, and tells me he's been somewhat unlucky on batter balls in play. If walker has a problem, it's that elevated pitch counts have prevented him from going deep in games. He's only pitched at least 6 innings three times.
Jeff Hoffman\
Hoffman has started 6 games for the Rockies. He 4-0 with 3 quality starts. He's allowed just 24 hits in his 32 innings, and opponents are hitting just .200 against him. He has struck out more than a batter per inning (36), while only walking 6, for an excellent K/BB ratio. His advanced metrics, a 2.76 SIERA, a 3.16 xFIP, and a 2.11 fFIP, are all equally outstanding.
There's only 1 potential rub. All 4 quality starts were on the road, and his one non quality effort was at Coors. In his 2 starts at Coors he has a 1.63 WHIP, a 3.86 ERA, and a .286 BAA. That's not awful, but it's not great either
Edge - NONE
Bullpens
Both teams have good bullpens
Edge - NONE
Offense
Team
|
Off
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
R/PG
|
Rank
|
|
Dacks
|
9.2
|
6
|
97
|
14
|
0.332
|
4
|
0.187
|
8
|
5.13
|
5
|
|
Rockies
|
-50.2
|
26
|
85
|
26
|
0.332
|
4
|
0.172
|
17
|
5.32
|
4
|
|
Rockies
|
0.275
|
2
|
0.334
|
5
|
0.447
|
6
|
87
|
15
|
7.6%
|
26
|
23
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The Rockies get on bases, but they aren't really all that prolific. The Dbacks are.
Edge - ARIZ
Defense
Edge - COL
Home / Road
ARIZ is a decent 18-18 on the road, while COL a very good 22-13 at home
Edge - COL
Conclusion: COL is a good home team and has a solid home field advantage. However, ARIZ possesses the more explosive and better offense. Both bullpens are very good. As for these two starting pitchers, I think they're both solis, so with good pens backing them up
Pick - UNDER 12 (-116 for 2 units)