Super Bowl Props
(-210) Peyton Manning will throw an interception
(-185) Either team will score 3 or more straight times
(-170) Team that scores first will win the game
(-165) At least one team will score 3 straight (unanswered) times
(-160) Cam Newton will throw an interception
(-150) Peyton Manning will throw a TD pass
(+120) 6 or more total TDs will be scored
(+150) if there’s a Special Team OR Defensive TD
(+180) Peyton Manning will NOT throw an INT
(+180) Anyone throwing for 300 or more yards
(+180) if more than 2 players attempt a pass
(+200) Panthers will score in all four quarters
(+250) There will be at least one scoreless quarter
(+250) Carolina scores in all four quarters
(+250) Luke Kuechly intercepts a pass
(+330) Denver scores in all four quarters
(+330) Missed extra point
(+380) Successful 2-point conversation
(+400) Game is decided by exactly 3-points
(+400) Peyton Manning plays next season
(+700) if there’s a safety
(+850) if there’s overtime
Over/Unders
o/u 3.5 total field goals
o/u 5 total sacks
o/u 19.5 Denver first downs
o/u 20.5 Carolina first downs
o/u 34.5 yards – Peyton Manning’s longest completion
o/u 37.5 yards – Cam Newton’s longest completion
o/u 41.5 yards – Cam Newton rushing
o/u 45.5 yards - longest field goal
o/u 98.5 yards – Denver rushing
o/u 123.5 yards - Carolina rushing
o/u 235.5 yards – Peyton Manning passing
o/u 237.5 yards – Cam Newton passing
o/u 665.5 yards – Combined total yards both teams
Longshots
10/1 if 10 or more TDs scored in game
20/1 if Cam Newton rushes for 100 or more yards
21/1 if neither team scores at least TWO straight times
30/1 if Panthers win by 37 or more points
40/1 if Broncos win by 37 or more points
40/1 if neither team scores 10 or more points
50/1 if no touchdowns scored in game
90/1 if Cam Newton throws form 6 or more TD passes
125/1 if Cam Newton throws form 6 or more TD passes
200/1 if zero penalties called in entire game
MVP
Cam Newton -150 ($150 wins $100)
Peyton Manning +350 ($100 wins $350)
Luke Kuechly 18/1
Jonathan Stewart 23/1
Von Miller 24/1
Emmanuel Sanders 28/1
Greg Olsen 29/1
CJ Anderson 33/1
Demaryius Thomas 33/1
Ted Ginn Jr. 40/1
Josh Norman 42/1
Ten 50/50 Props (odds say either side of these props has 50% chance)
Great fun for radio hosts to battle or to print out and have party guests make picks.
(Odds over 1000/1 against getting all ten correct!)
Heads or Tails – Coin Toss
Over/Under: 2 minutes and 13 seconds for Lady Gaga to sing National Anthem
Yes/No: Will the game be tied again after 0-0?
Yes/No: Will every quarter have over 3.5 points of scoring?
Over/Under: 36.5 yards for Manning’s longest pass completion
Over/Under: 43.5 yards for the game’s longest TD
Over/Under: 45.5 yards for the game’s longest Field Goal
Over/Under: 1.5 yards for game’s shortest TD
Over/Under: 14.5 points for largest lead by any team at any point in game
Over/Under: 3.5 Carolina players scoring points in game
Super Bowl Spread:
Carolina -5.5 over Denver
Over/Under Total: 45 points
Point Spread OPENED: Carolina -3.5
Early Money was all on Carolina (both professionals and the public)
On Thursday, many Pros starting backing Denver at +6
Money Line Odds
(straight-up winner, no spread)
Panthers: $220 wins $100 (67% chance)
Broncos: $100 wins $200 (33% chance)
The Vegas favorite has won 34 of the prior 49 Super Bowls (69%)
Big Trends
NFL teams AFTER scoring 40+ points in the playoffs (like Carolina did last game)
are on a 5-23 Against The Spread (18% ATS) losing run their next playoff game!
Team with more turnovers in Super Bowl has won only 4 of 49 games!
Beating Vegas?
Vegas historically has won money on 92% of Super Bowls!
Nevada has required separate Super Bowl accounting for 25 years:
Only TWO TIMES have the bettors won money (in net)
Vegas has won money 23 of 25 Super Bowls (since state-wide account began)
Coin Toss
49 prior Super Bowls: 25 tails and 24 heads (couldn’t be any closer)
NFC has won 16 of the last 18 coin tosses!
Super Bowl Action:
An estimated $10 BILLION is projected to be bet on Super Bowl 50 worldwide!
Over HALF of adult Americans are expected to have some money at risk on the game.
Less than 1% of the total amount bet globally is expected to be wagered legally in Nevada.
2015 Preseason Super Bowl Odds
Broncos 10/1
(only 5 teams entered the season with better odds than Denver [Seattle, Green Bay, New England, Indianapolis, Philadelphia)
Panthers 60/1
(only 9 teams entered the season as bigger longshots than Carolina)
MORE
RJ Bell hosted TWO a pro bettor roundtable podcasts:
Game Preview and line moves: https://soundcloud.com/pregame/dream-pod-super-bowl-50-vegas-preview-part-1
Props: https://soundcloud.com/pregame/dream-pod-super-bowl-50-prop-preview-part-2