NCAA Title Odds
N. Carolina 5/1
Kansas 6/1
Gonzaga 7/1
Arizona 7/1
Kentucky 11/1
UCLA 13/1
Florida 16/1
Wisconsin 16/1
Michigan 18/1
Baylor 18/1
WVU 21/1
Purdue 24/1
Oregon 27/1
S. Carolina 40/1
Butler 45/1
Xavier 75/1
Wiseguys like …
West Virginia over Gonzaga
(Gonzaga especially struggles against pressure West Virginia)
Bracket Ceilings Continue
Last 33 years: Only 9 teams worse than #12 seed have made the Sweet 16 (only 1.7% overall).
ZERO in the last FOUR years.
NO MATTER WHO WINS, the following streak will continue …
Only ONE team worse than a #11 seed has made the Elite Eight in the last 33 years!
Chalk
Vegas favorites have advanced (won outright) in 40 of 48 tournament games so far.
PERFECT BRACKET odds so far (48 out of 48): 296 Million to 1 (based on actual Vegas Money Line for each game winner)
Last Year - after 48 games - perfect bracket odds were 8.4 BILLION to 1 (meaning this year so far has been 28 TIMES MORE LIKELY to produce a perfect bracket)
Region Favorites
Midwest Region: Kansas +115
South Region: North Carolina +115
West Region: Arizona +150 (favored over #1 Gonzaga)
East Region: Baylor +200
(note NO minus-money favorites to win even the next two games)
Props
Will #1 seed wins tourney?
Yes +110
No -130
4/1 payoff if ZERO #1 seeds make Final Four
10/1 payoff if all three remaining #1 seeds make Final Four
SUM of all seeds in Final Four: over/under 12.5
Lower Seed Favored
#7 Michigan favored over #3 Oregon on Thursday
Casino Owner Derek Stevens
Mr. Stevens bet to win $10,000 on EACH of the first round games (32 in all)
He won 10, lost 19, and pushed 3 (Against The Spread)
Losing $109,000 overall (including vig)
Still alive for seven-figure redemption: Before tournament began, Mr. Stevens also bet $12,500 to win $1 Million on his ala mater Michigan to win the Title.
Women’s Basketball Title Odds
UConn -400 (76% chance)
Field +300 (24% chance)
Handicapping Tips ...
Purdue’s lack of defensive aggressiveness likely problem vs. Kansas
Kansas with home court advantage the next two games
Michigan’s John Beilein respected by Las Vegas as much as any College BB coach
Xavier game tips off at 10:00 ET (body clock issues)