So earlier today - in Part I of NCCAA Capping Tips from the Pros - I dipped my toe in the March Madness betting waters and got some basic best practices from our Pregame.com pros. Now, let’s dip into some slightly more advanced ideas and some specifics about what you should be doing during the early rounds:
Seeding vs. the Spread
We touched on this a little bit in our last post, but seeding is based on the entire season, not how a team is playing right now. So, don’t automatically assume because a team is seeded higher that they are te favorites. Pregame.com founder RJ Bell pointed out a couple of them earlier:
Teddy “Covers” Servansky
Point spreads matter. Seeding doesn’t; with one exception. When you are filling out brackets (not trying to pick spread winners), seeding matters because it will show you how tough a road a team has to reach the Final Four. It’s much easier to reach the Final Four as a #1 seed than as a #6 seed. But when the #10 seed is a favorite against the #7 seed, like Ohio State is against VCU this year, the betting markets are telling you all you need to know. Oddsmakers are sharper –much sharper – than the NCAA tournament selection committee.
Dave Cokin
If you've got good power ratings, trust them and find the value. If you don't, trust the oddsmakers, who do. In other words, don't fall into ratings trap. I'm not saying it's blind bet material, but if a #11 seed is favored over a #6 seed, for instance, it's not just for the heck of it. Personally, I like finding teams with a chip on their shoulder, a point to prove. But my main focus will be on my math, and the search will be for dogs with a legit chance to win outright.
There is one cautionary note for you guys on the hunt for potential bracket busters though. Stephen Nover explains:
Historically, the No. 7 seed takes care of business against the No. 10 seed. The tournament committee often gets criticized, but they aren't stupid. There are reasons why a team is seeded seventh and another team is seeded 10th. Don't overthink this. Connecticut was a No. 7 seed last year and wound up winning the NCAA Tournament.
Last year, seven seeds went 3-1. Going back the past 14 years, seven seeds are 35-21 straight-up (SU) in the first round against No. 10 seeds and 32-24 against the spread (ATS) for 57.1 percent. It might be tempting to pick an upset at this spot, but recent history shows otherwise. Plus, seven seeds haven't been nearly as successful in the second round going 10-25 SU and 17-17-1 ATS.
Motivation and the Intangibles
Yes, it is a pretty obvious thing to say that these 68 teams want to win, but the motivation factor does come into play when making our picks. For freshman or teams presumed to be big favorites in early rounds, they may not have quite the same drive as a seasoned team with an axe to grind. The Pros explain:
David Malinsky
Duke’s 78-71 loss to Mercer in the 2013-14 opening round was a major shocker on paper, a 13-point favorite coming up 20 points short of the market expectations. But it did not look like an upset on the court, where the supposed “underdog” moved the ball with poise and chemistry on offense, getting five players into double figures, and finishing with twice as many assists (16) as turnovers (8). There was a reason for that – Mercer had a senior-laden team that had played together for several seasons, while Duke was a work-in-progress with a one-and-done (Jabari Parker) and a transfer in his only season with the program (Rodney Hood), among the starters.
And that is the “seed” (somewhat literally) that can plant early upsets. For underdogs with a lot of veterans, beating a favorite from a power conference can be a crowning moment in their careers. Meanwhile a power team with a lot of young players, which is not uncommon in this era, can be the most vulnerable to being upset, because of that lack of maturity. But it is not just emotion – it is also the fact that the team with more experience often brings a chemistry on the court that the favorite struggles to match. Make that experience factor a part of your process, and some of those early upsets can come into focus before tipoff, creating significant opportunities.
Spartan
To me, it is important to look where the great players are that seem to shine the brightest when the spotlight is most glaring. Some players seem to have been born for March Madness. And many don't end up being the same caliber of star in the league but they have that star power in March Madness. For example, Duke’s Christian Laettner comes to mind, as well as Kemba Walker and his run in the dance with UConn. Anthony Davis for the Wildcats is noteworthy too. I will take the team with the star power over that opponent with no clear leader and stand out. Of course, this year’s Kentucky makes it tough because they are loaded with this caliber of ball player.
Scott Spreitzer
Focus on the strengths and weaknesses of each team (and head coach) and evaluate games accordingly. Sometimes a team will look “hot” because their skill set is well-suited to tournament basketball (like Connecticut last season). But, the Huskies didn’t run the table because they were “hot.” They cut down the nets because great defense and guard play are proven advantages in the Dance! Chasing “hot” just puts you on teams who are about to crash and burn after playing a game or two over their heads. Focusing on strengths and weaknesses will help you top the needed win percentage to overcome vigorish.
To help you find teams who are best suited to win chess matches, I strongly suggest all of the following:
*Look for experienced point guards who can score and pass
*Look for rebounding teams, particularly defensive rebounding teams
*Look for head coaches who have consistently performed well in the Dance
*Look for teams who enjoy friendly travel/crowd scenarios
*Look for teams who were playing their best basketball in the last month of the season
[More from Scott Spreitzer: NCAA Tournament Tips continued]
Tony George makes the same point about an oft-neglected aspect of March Madness: the NIT.
Much like a bowl game, motivation is a big factor in the NIT. Numerous teams are disappointed that missed the cut in the Big Dance and, while they may be a "Name Brand" team and open up with a home game (games are home and road in this tourney till the final 4), a small conference team catching points in this scenario will many times upset a team from a power conference, as they are dialed in to win.
Looking Ahead and Investing Wisely
March Madness is a flurry of activity followed by a few days off. As a result, there is plenty of time for books to adjust the lines. Earlier today, Steve Fezzik posted some games he anticipated line moves on (something he’ll do more throughout the tournament). Greg Shaker explains how to best take advantage of the gaps between the lines being set and tipoff. He also has a word of caution one should always adhere to—never bet just to bet:
These games are very much like regular season college and pro football, meaning that betting lines come out far in advance of actual games. That means that public betting gets more time to mold the line into shape. Many bettors feel it's important to bet MORE at this time of the season. Many also feel it's important to bet SOON at this time of the season. My suggestion is to handicap the games. Determine your BUY Number and do not deviate from that. These games offer great value sometimes, but only at lines that make sense. There is no reason to take an inferior number simply because you, "want to have some money on it." That's the mindset of the Poster Child of Losing and you don't want to be that. Keep Cool. Bet games that have high percentage winning opps. Leave the rest alone. Count your money...Get ready for baseball.