Point Blank – May 25
Pausing on a rewind, as the East nears a close (Playoff Passages #34)…The Serenity Prayer, as a handicapping tool…From one holiday to the next - will Eddie Butler or Jason Marquis be in a Major League rotation on the Fourth of July?
Cleveland 114 Atlanta 111
The Sunday plan called for a nice long stretch away from scoreboards, a chance to catch up with a special friend that is in the United States for two weeks, in the lovely setting of St. Antony’s Monastery, about 150 miles from Las Vegas in the California high desert. And with the DVR set to record Hawks/Cavaliers Game #3, there would be the ability to do the usual full breakdown, in terms of setting the stages for what is ahead.
But the plan was already beginning to shift on the way back. I was able to listen to the final 3:00 of the overtime period, and while the flow of that ending reflected what was a rather frenzied game, there was also the realization that not much was going to be learned from the full rewind. A day that brought not only the feeling of an excursion somewhere into the Levant under that blue sky, but also the kind of conversation that can be an antidote against the occasional silliness of sport, was not going to be altered by what would likely have proven to be a meaningless exercise.
The Atlanta lineup that played through that dramatic second half and O.T. period is one that will rarely play together in the future, if ever, so a practical application of the opening verse of the Serenity Prayer (“God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change; courage to change the things I can; and wisdom to know the difference”), was in order. A copy of that should be kept on hand; over time it will be worth about as much as your chart showing the value of buying on or off of the key numbers. It might be self-flattering to claim wisdom in not watching the full rewind, but in truth there would not be much purpose served (although for sheer entertainment the last few laps of the Indy 500 were viewed, since we all do need to have some fun with this stuff.)
There is a proper message that can be filed away concerning Atlanta, and in fact many teams in the sporting world, that does flow directly from some of the Sunday conversation. The Hawks were not ready for the kind of stage that the Conference Finals brought, and it showed in how nervous and tight their play was in the first two games. When they could relax and compete with abandon on Sunday, they did. High levels of adversity require either great talent, or savvy and experience, to cope with the pressure. Atlanta did not bring either to this series, and even though the Hawks may again play loosely and with good energy on Tuesday, their season likely ends that night.
But much about Atlanta being in the game has to be directed towards the Cleveland side, especially in terms of how the Cavaliers are going to match up against the Warriors. While I believe it was a smart move by David Blatt to sit Kyrie Irving on Sunday, J. R. Smith and James Jones were the only players that he could trust off of the bench. And that was against a Bazemore-Scott-Mack rotation for long stretches. LeBron James played with a will and determination that led to high counts in points, rebounds and assists, but it was also a rather inefficient outing, with his 14-37 shooting, and six turnovers, ultimately generating a -3 in his 46:47 of court time. Four of the Cleveland starters played 42:35 or more, and it was a minus count for each of them. That speaks volumes about where this team is, a superstar and a bunch of journeyman now preparing to face a superstar, a star (Draymond Green), and some other really good players.
Unless Kyrie Irving can be anywhere near full health, the NBA Finals may not last much longer than either of the current series serving as the preludes.
Meanwhile kudos to the crew…
I do want to take time to tip the cap to all of you that participated in the post-column thread yesterday, keeping the ball alive while I was breaking bread in a much different setting. Those conversations are a big part of what we are trying to create here, and one of the prime goals is to make Point Blank a starting point for debate and discussion. There are many of you making significant contributions to that process, which is much appreciated, and over time the building of a team can show up in an elevated “net worth” counts all the way around. And along those lines…
In the Sights…
Here comes one that many of you are probably expecting – Jason Marquis is playing today, which means that I will be again. The issues of the veteran right-hander moving to an unfavorable new home were first dealt with here, and in a pair of “In the Sights…” takes there have been easy wins vs. what is left of his repertoire. That “anywhere but Petco Park” ERA is now at 5.65 over the last 4+ seasons. So on a warm and humid Memorial Day at the Great American Ballpark, with a hitter’s wind towards the left field foul pole, it should be an idea setting to take advantage again, right?
Not quite. The MLB schedule makers put the Rockies into an awkward setting, the rarity of having to travel back across two time zones to play a game that starts at 11:05 AM on their body clocks. It will almost assuredly mean no batting practice, and Walt Weiss has already decided to sit Troy Tulowitzki, starting the punchless Daniel Descalso at shortstop. So Colorado is not easy to trust, especially with Eddie Butler continuing to show that he is not ready for this level yet. Butler only got one outing in AAA on his way up, and through 11 starts with the Rockies his FIP sits at 5.70. A dreadful ratio of 32 BB vs. 25 Ks over those 53 IP will do that, and the fact that his path to success is ground balls does not help with a struggling defense behind him (the Rockies are #29 in PADE, only Cleveland faring worse so far with the gloves).
So is there an opening? Even with the Cincinnati offense slumping, there is enough to stay in play for the Marquis cycle, a #954 Over worth about two-thirds of a position at the going rate – you should be able to lay -105 off of a “9” (Updating: The Tulo out announcement is now bringing more 9's at +110, and you might even find an 8.5 if you hold on).
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