Point Blank – April 22
The Playoff Passages #4 (Games of 4/21)…It isn’t just the HRs for Hamels…A veteran starter makes a “rocky” career move…
Cleveland and Houston maintained control of relatively easy series on Tuesday night, while Toronto’s attempts to get back into the hunt vs. Washington ran into a Wall, literally. Time to get out the chalkboard and break it down…
Cleveland 99 Boston 91
If Game #2 looked a lot like Game #1 to you, it is because it was. The Cavalier players are too good to lose at home, the quality of Celtic tactical basketball is too good to get blown out, this time being as close as down by four at 4:41. For the second straight game LeBron James had seven assists, as he works on getting his teammates involved as much as possible, but he also scored 30 points, with Boston not having a defensive force around the basket to keep him from finishing (Cleveland is 51-98 on two-point attempts in this series). Kyrie Irving has 56 points through the two wins, but Kevin Love is only 8-22 from the field, not getting the confidence boost they had hoped for him.
Boston has lost the first two games by 21 points, the scoreboard nearly matching the battle on the boards (-20) and that size to protect the rim is not on the current roster. That ordinarily would not bode well moving forward, a team knowing from some of basketball’s prime indicators that they are relegated to being Sisyphus for the remainder of the series. But I categorize the Celtic mindset as being different. I believe this is a group that has a genuine goal of wanting to win a game, and will play harder come Thursday than most squads down 0-2 and facing the inevitable. They are running good offense, given the physical limitations of the O’s, and while they can not intimidate in the paint, the defense is bringing good pressure on the perimeter – Cleveland had as many turnovers (18) as assists last night. Put those levels of aggression and abandon with a crowd behind them, and do not be surprised if the Thursday energy level looks like it is coming from a team that still expects to win the series.
And given the quick turnaround, plus travel, just why was James on the court for 41:48 last night? Meanwhile Irving and J. R. Smith also played more minutes than any Celtic. This may not be a Game #3 underdog that will look to slow the pace and try to hang in against a superior opponent, but rather one that may actually look to speed it up and attack, as the best opportunity to break through.
Washington 117 Toronto 106
The Raptors did what a team down 0-1 at home is supposed to do - they came out with passion, scoring 31 points in the first quarter after only reaching 82 in regulation in the opener, and they were up 35-29 early in the 2nd Quarter when the circumstances changed quickly. Kyle Lowry committed his second foul of the game at 9:29, and before Dwane Casey could get him off the floor Lowry committed another 11 seconds later. The next time Lowry touched the ball it was 60-49 Washington, a 31-14 turnaround while he was sitting out. That surge was led by John Wall, who naturally Lowry would have been matched up against, and not only did it change the immediate flow, it got the Wizards into a rhythm that they maintained the rest of the way.
Wall had a brilliant evening with 26 points and 17 assists, many of the dishes going to back-court mate Bradley Beal, who scored 28. That duo was 20-37 from the field, after an awful 11-41 in the opener. The Wizards shot 53.2 percent, including a stretch late in the 3rd Quarter in which they inserted the dagger into Toronto for the game, knocking down triples on four consecutive possessions, all from a different shooter, to build the lead out to 22. It grew to 23 early in the fourth before the Raptors put on a mini-run, and while it would be easy to discount that, it can have an impact going forward – it was just close enough that Beal played 42:06 and Wall 39:46, which was not great time management by Randy Wittman in a game that was never less than double figures over the final 19:07.
The Washington road playoff run the past two seasons has now reach a staggering 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS, beating the spread by 96.5 in the process, a tick more than a dozen points per game above the market expectations. The flip side is that the Wizards were 1-4 SU and ATS at home last year, with all of those outright losses coming in the favorite’s role. Is this the sort of thing that can be inside their heads a little bit? A key part of that answer, of course, will depend on how much game pressure the Raptors can put on them. If Lowry is healthy enough to go, there is still that intriguing notion that they were +9 over his 27:22 last night, while getting whipped by more than a point-a-minute (21 over 20:38) when he was not available. But beyond Lowry’s health, is there going to be enough of a competitive will on the boards, which Washington has dominated to a 106-76 tune so far (Toronto did not have a single offensive rebound in the first half of Game #2)?
Houston 111 Dallas 99
Like Boston/Cleveland #2, you could easily conclude that this was a repeat of the opener, when Houston led 111-100 with 1:00 left. But that would be wrong. There was plenty to see here, and it may turn out to have been an important Rocket win. They have opened 2-0 despite James Harden shooting just 9-28 (2-9 triples), and last night an 84-81 deficit early in the 4th Quarter turned into a 100-90 advantage at 4:33, all without Harden being on the court. It was the way the rest of the team picked up their game that bears watching, especially a couple of guys that can be matchup problems through these brackets when their focus is on.
Any breakdown has to start with Josh Smith, who turned in a shockingly good all-around game, with 15 points, nine assists (!!!), eight rebounds, a steal and a blocked shot over 25:41. Yes, he still ridiculously took five three-point attempts, making only one, because he is Josh Smith. But the way that he was able to break down the Dallas defense to create easy opportunities adds a dynamic to this offense – the Rockets had 15 dunks in the game, many of them off of plays he made, and no team has had that many dunks in a playoff game in the 21st Century
Then there was Dwight Howard, a recipient of many of those Smith passes. He had 28 points, 12 rebounds, and a couple of blocked shots over 33:05, and at one stretch even made seven consecutive FTs, on his way to an 8-11 evening from the stripe. If he develops some swagger off of that, it does make the Rockets a much more interesting item for the next round. Consider the 12-point win in the light of Harden’s 5-17, and the combined 2-15 from starters Terrence Jones and Trevor Ariza.
Of course there is a flip side, which was focused upon a couple of times in pre-playoff columns – the race for the #2 seed in the Western Conference was so intense because all of those teams wanted to face the Mavericks, who bring precious little right now. The rotation has too many old faces to keep up with the kind of energy level the contenders bring, and it may be coming time to call the Rajon Rondo experiment as being over – they are a shocking -35 on the scoreboard in the 37:13 he has played in this series. Given that it also means a +13 when he is not playing, Rick Carlisle has a difficult time projecting his Friday rotation (if Devin Harris is capable of playing, that will make a difference). Traditional NBA playoff betting protocol forces Dallas into the favorite’s role for Game #3, there just may not be any current basketball merit to that.
Item: Cole Hamels, and those HRs (there is more than that going on)
There may not be a more startling individual statistic in the early MLB season than the seven HRs Cole Hamels has allowed, over 18 IP in his 0-2/5.00 opening. This is after he only gave up 14 over 204 2/3 IP in 2014. Naturally it is something that a guy with ace stuff should be able to correct, and often I would be among the first to get in line to bet the correction. But Hamels is more for the Eye Test right now than the portfolio, and his start vs. Miami this evening may be a good learning opportunity.
It is not just the long-ball that is alarming, but the fact that his BB/9 of 4.5 is nearly double his career 2.3. Hamels has not been working the strike zone well, and when you fail to do that it means falling behind hitters. Falling behind hitters means having to work towards the middle of the zone. Working towards the middle of the zone can lead to hard contact, and HRs. That is the cycle.
But also consider this – Hamels is sporting that 5.00 allowance despite getting much the best of it when contact has been made that does not leave the park. He is sitting on an extreme outlier of a .122 BABIP through those three games, and also a LOB% of 98.2. Those latter two numbers are preposterously extreme, and will begin to work against him in the games ahead. Hence, no notions of buying in until there is evidence that he really has his stuff.
In the Sights…
San Diego’s 7-6 win at Colorado on Tuesday was a rather misleading affair, a game close on the scoreboard that went down to Craig Kimbrel’s final pitch, but one in which the Padres put 21 runners on base via Hit, BB or HBP, while the Rockies only had eight. But the Colorado pitchers were able to induce three double plays, and also got a big break when bad base-running by Clint Barmes short-circuited a potential big SD inning. Now there is a chance to play #911 San Diego at a more than favorable price to grab another win, with an ill-fitting Kyle Kendrick not likely to offer much resistance.
There was surprise when Kendrick signed with the Rockies, because he is just not a good candidate to perform well at Coors Field. As tough as this place is on most pitchers, those that either get ground balls or strikeouts can at least compete a bit. Kendrick brings neither of those attributes as a major part of his arsenal (4.96 K/9 career, 46.0 percent GBs), so it would not be a surprise to see that his allowance from this mound is at 6.33 over 42 2/3 IP. His first home start in a Colorado uniform was dismal, throwing strikes on only 55.9 percent of his pitches to show a lack of confidence, and allowing HRs to Starlin Castro, Chris Coughlin and Mike Olt in an ugly loss to the Cubs.
There is no problem from the other side – James Shields is already in his comfort zone in a 2-0/2.84 opening, with 24 Ks vs. only 14 Hits allowed, and that Benoit/Kimbrel late tandem is well-set. I would split this one about 50-50 Straight/Run Line, with as low as -116 available for the outright win, and as high as +138 returning on the RL, with -120 and +135 commonly available (they are getting better at squeezing Coors Run Lines for this type of setting, but there is enough handicap here to make that half of the investment).
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