FRESNO STATE –12 over SMU
Fresno averages a huge 489 yds per game on offense – 123 yds per game more than SMU.  Fresno is also better on defense, allowing 65 fewer yards per game to their opponents.  

Add to that the fact that Fresno has the better offensive and defensive ljnes, allowiug one fewer sack while getting fwo full sacks per game more against their opponents

All that spells a win by double the spread.

Take Fresno State –12 as a 2-STAR play.  This would have been a 3-Star if Fresno were favored by 10 or less, but with a line of –12, Fresno will probably need to win by 14 points to cover.  In the NFL teams win by 12 or 13 points only about 1.7% of the time combined, but win by 14 points a huge 6.7% of the time.  So consider this almost the same as a line of –13.5.

MONEY MANAGEMENT:  We’ll recommend a risk of $110 to win $100 for the normal $100 per game player.

12/24/2012 12:17 PM