Rating: 1*
Pick: OKC/DEN Under 233.5
Line: -110

My favorite of our two plays tonight.  The Nuggets shot 41% from range in their Game 2 loss but still only managed 106 points and lost by over 40.  I think the Nuggets here have to play much more methodically as they cannot contend with the Thunder in a run-and-gun game.  I think they play through Jokic's advantage match-up as much as possible meaning, more post-action and halfcourt sets slowing down the pace.  This game has seen the total increase by 3-points since game 2, a massive overraction to a one game sample.  

Nuggets playoff games have gone Under 56% of the time since their Finals run in 2023 (23 Unders in 41 games).

Thunder playoff games have gone Under over 60% of the time over the same time span (10 Unders and 6 Overs).

Despite both of these teams having been more likely to play Under games in the playoffs this total almost the same as this matchup's average total over four regular season games.

Game 3's following Overs in Game 1's and 2's have gone UNDER 61% of the time over 73 instances since the 2003 playoffs.

05/08/2025 4:54 PM