The Nevada Wolfpack -4 (-110) at BetUS for 10-Stars

This is my STRONGEST Rush Dominance wager of 2010

I'm sad that we didn't catch this at -3 a few days ago, but I had to dig deep into that BYU defense so that we could verify the strength of this wager.

The clearest thing that I see in the data is the RUSH Vs. RUSHED-ON numbers for Nevada and BYU. Everyone in the country knows that the Wolfpack are going to base everyting they do off the run. This is a team with a 6.52 yards per rush number, and the Pack hasn't allowed a single sack in 2010. This yields a 68% 3rd down percentage, and I'm fairly certain that they'll continue their dominance in these departments on saturday.

Why?

BYU is NOT a very sound run defense.

It should frighten BYU backers that the Cougars allow a stunning 5.82 yards per rush. The 45% 3rd down conversion rate for the opposing team is another overlapping indicator that SCREAMS consistancy for the Nevada offense.

We're capping an expectation! And that expectation can be filtered through piles of data. Nevada WILL move the ball.

Think of it this way:

BYU is #119 as a defense VS the Run

Nevada is #5 as an offense on the RUN.

BYU played  FSU (#35 in Terms of Rush Offense); Washington (#58) and Air Force (#1), so there's a bit of understanding for that TERRIBLE Ranking.......

But: Nevada is #5 with the Run and AF is #1 with the Run and AF beat BYU by 21 points (35-14) and AF is not as strong at Nevada on Offense and they're almost picture perfect twins in terms of defense.

Nevada and AF: 20 points allowed.....43% 3rd down allowance...7 sacks....25 minutes on the TOP (Time of Possession)....similar total rushing yards allowed......

SO WHY THE HELL IS NEVADA A 4 POINT FAVORITE AND NOT AN 11 POINT FAVORITE?

There is no way that BYU's 3-man front is going to penetrate that Nevada offensive line. California's 3-man front couldn't stop Nevada, so why are the oddsmakers lifting the Cougar line to such heights?

Seriously: Nevada has a HUGE green light on the run and there's 630 pounds on the left side of that Wolfpack O-line that WILL get a hat on part of that LB grouping on every down. I can see a serious collapse of that BYU left and Right, so the possibilty of sealing the edges are optimal.

By the way: BYU is going to be without their starting CB; they wont have one of their stronger Free Safeties, and their starting Middle Linebacker is questionable with a strained MCL. Doesn't that make a bad defense even worse?

Are we witnessing a betting public that still thinks BYU is a powerhouse?

You can't be #86 in points allowed and expect to hold a candle to this Nevada offense.

By the way: O'neill Chambers (BYU's starting WR and Kick and Punt returner is OUT!). He's a big target, and it's going to afffect their field position.

Nevada's injury report is pretty clean. Louks, the FS is out.

This is a powerful wager!